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Florida Map Coming Into Focus

by Jessica Taylor February 1, 2012 · 4:41 PM EST

As Florida Republicans approach a compromise on redistricting, a game of musical chairs between GOP Reps. Allen West and Tom Rooney could potentially save one of the most endangered members of Congress.

With Rooney announcing he’ll run in the solidly Republican 17th District, which includes…

In Presidential Polling, Context Always Matters

by Stuart Rothenberg February 1, 2012 · 1:20 PM EST

It’s as predictable as night following day.

Events drive public sentiment, which then shows up in polling. Then, people who either want to make a splash or more often simply want to drive home partisan talking points use the numbers to proclaim a fundamental shift in public opinion and…

Special Election Results Ahead: Please Proceed With Caution

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 1, 2012 · 12:34 AM EST

As with any special election, it’s important to exercise restraint when extrapolating wider lessons. At least the presidential race is soaking up enough to attention to limit the opportunities to over-analyze the results in Oregon’s 1st District.

It looks like former state senator Suzanne…

Indiana Rep. Burton Goes Out on His Own Terms

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 31, 2012 · 12:24 PM EST

Dan Burton was unlikely to return to Congress next year; it was just a question of whether he would lose in the primary or retire. Today, the 15-term congressman from Indiana announced his retirement and avoided the very real potential that he would end his political career with a defeat.

Wisconsin Senate: Overshadowed by the Recall

by Jessica Taylor January 27, 2012 · 2:00 PM EST

Under normal circumstances, Wisconsin’s first open Senate seat since 1988 would be the biggest political game in town this cycle. Sen. Herb Kohl announced his retirement in May, and though the four-term Democrat had faced easy reelections, his move sets up a competitive race that is even more…

The Civil Wars

by Jessica Taylor January 27, 2012 · 1:59 PM EST


The decennial knife-fight known as redistricting is poised to claim more victims in 2012 intraparty squabbles than ten years ago, and it’s Democrats who will have more member-member primary fights on their hands than their GOP counterparts.

Republicans, overall, have done a better job at…

Ohio House Primaries: Can’t We All Just Get Along?

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 27, 2012 · 1:58 PM EST

Republicans hit some bumps in the road on their way to implementing their redistricting map, putting the primary date in danger of being moved. But a deal with some Democrats in the legislature preserved much of the Republicans’ plan and in time to save the March 6 primary.

While the Buckeye…

Illinois House Primaries: Don’t Take This Personally

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 27, 2012 · 1:56 PM EST

Democrats maximized their opportunity to draw the new congressional map, but they couldn’t avoid a couple competitive primaries.

In the 2nd District, Cong. Jesse Jackson Jr. faces a former colleague, Debbie Halvorson, in the March 20 Democratic primary in a redrawn district that stretches well…

Alabama House Primaries: Please Forgive Me

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 27, 2012 · 1:56 PM EST

Spencer Bachus (R) has been in Congress for ten terms. Mo Brooks (R) hasn’t been there much longer than ten months. But both men could face serious challenges as Republican voters in Alabama gear up for the March 13 primary.

Neither Bachus’ 6th District nor Brooks’ 5th District is at risk of a…

Mississippi House Primaries: No Pardon for Nunnelee

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 27, 2012 · 1:55 PM EST

Mississippi hosted two competitive House races last cycle when Republicans Alan Nunnelee and Steven Palazzo knocked off incumbents. This cycle, the best action in the Magnolia State will likely be in the March primaries instead of November.

At one point, Nunnelee, Palazzo, and Bennie Thompson…