Inside Elections

2011-12 Gubernatorial Ratings (August 12, 2011)

August 12, 2011 · 2:58 PM EDT

The Nothingness of the Iowa Straw Poll

by Stuart Rothenberg August 12, 2011 · 9:01 AM EDT

Last week, I canceled my room reservation for the week of the Iowa straw poll. I am not going to Ames.

With Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman not participating in what is already an event of dubious predictive value, the Ames event became little more than an opportunity to consume large…

Blue Dogs and Elephants? Dad Can’t Escape Politics

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 10, 2011 · 10:19 AM EDT

Anyone with kids has spent a lot of time reading books with fewer than 10 words on a page. But as the political environment heats up, what looks like a harmless bedtime story can turn into a hidden political message or even astute political analysis.

At least, if you’re like me and have…

Debt Ceiling Fight Is So Yesterday’s News

by Stuart Rothenberg August 9, 2011 · 10:45 AM EDT

Well, that was fast. Just days after Congress raised the debt ceiling and finalized a deficit reduction deal, reality slapped the nation in the face in the form of a 500-point drop in the Dow Jones industrial average.

Thank you. We needed that.

The economic news isn’t good. Europe’s debt…

GOP Hoping to Hang On in Wisconsin Recalls

by Stuart Rothenberg August 5, 2011 · 11:09 AM EDT

Though Yogi Berra is most often associated with the phrase “it ain’t over till it’s over,” it is Republicans in Wisconsin who are now uttering the phrase, hoping that their party can limit its losses to only a seat or two in next week’s state Senate recall elections.

Following the…

Will Debt Dance Be a Disaster for Incumbents?

by Stuart Rothenberg August 3, 2011 · 11:04 AM EDT

Congress, we hear from voters of all stripes on television and in print, is a disaster, unable even to address important questions let alone find good answers. Even with the deal to raise the debt limit and avoid a default, voters surely will punish all incumbents next November, won’t they?

2012 Senate Overview (August 1, 2011)

August 1, 2011 · 3:16 PM EDT

The combination of retirements and GOP recruiting has already put the Senate in play. The GOP needs to gain three or four seats to win control (depending on which party holds the White House), and already five Democratic-held Senate seats are no better than toss-ups. The Democratic outlook would…

2012 Senate Ratings (August 1, 2011)

August 1, 2011 · 3:15 PM EDT

In Debt Debacle, Someone Will Have to Blink

by Stuart Rothenberg July 29, 2011 · 9:34 AM EDT

After months of posturing, promising and threatening, the endgame on raising the debt ceiling and shrinking the deficit is approaching.

But after talking during the past few days with a variety of participants and observers, I can find no consensus on exactly what the final result will be.

These Are the Dog Days for Rating Senate Races

by Stuart Rothenberg July 27, 2011 · 9:21 AM EDT

A veteran Democratic consultant once told me something very wise: 90 percent of what happens in a campaign has little to do with determining who wins and who loses.

The problem is that we don’t know exactly what the important 10 percent is.

I think of this comment often, but particularly…