Like most of you, I’m a huge consumer of polls. I rely on survey data, because they represent one of the few quantitative measures of candidate strength. Or do they?
For years, I have complained about national and local news anchors who don’t seem to understand what polls mean and what a margin…
Christine O’Donnell’s upset over Cong Mike Castle in the GOP primary dramatically alters Republican prospects for November in Delaware. Castle had broad appeal, including to independents and even Democratic voters, while O’Donnell’s appeal is limited to tea party conservatives. Lacking an…
While serious Democratic observers worry whether their party can somehow hang on to 218 seats in the House, more than a few Republican strategists and neutral observers have become convinced that the GOP is on the cusp of a stunning victory that could at least equal the party’s 52-seat 1994 gain.…
National and local polls continue to show further deterioration in Democratic prospects. Given that, we are increasing our target of likely Republican gains from 28-33 seats to 37-42 seats, with the caveat that substantially larger GOP gains in the 45-55 seat range are quite possible. The next…
There isn’t a lot of consensus in Washington, D.C., but party operatives on both sides of the aisle as well as members of the media seem to be united in their distrust of polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports. But with new polling by a Democratic firm in three key states showing identical results,…
Republican prospects have taken a hit in the races for governor in Colorado and Connecticut putting a dent in the potential for a huge year for the GOP. Republicans are still in strong position but we’re revising our outlook downward slightly from a minimum GOP gain of eight seats to a range of a…
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