Archive

2010 Senate Overview (February 19, 2010)

by Stuart Rothenberg February 19, 2010 · 12:00 PM EST

The likelihood of Democratic Senate gains evaporated over the summer and fall, and it is now the GOP that is headed for gains. Eight of the dozen most competitive Senate seats up this year are now held by Democrats, meaning that Republicans have plenty of opportunities for net gains. The…

Ohio: Ganley Switching Races, Will Challenge Sutton

February 17, 2010 · 11:37 AM EST

Wealthy car dealer Tom Ganley (R) is dropping out of the open-seat Ohio Senate race and will challenge Rep. Betty Sutton (D) in the 13th district instead, according to a source familiar with the decision.

The Ganley switch is a coup for Republicans because it gives former Rep. Rob Portman a…

Plus 10 in the Senate? Republicans Certainly Not There Yet

February 17, 2010 · 8:00 AM EST

Having seen victories by Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama, the 1994 Republican and 2006 Democratic Congressional sweeps, and Sen. Scott Brown’s (R) recent Massachusetts victory, I’m not inclined to rule out unexpected outcomes — especially nine months before an event.

But the recent explosion of…

Public Anger Continues to Hammer Incumbents

February 16, 2010 · 11:32 PM EST

Stu was on the Newshour tonight with the Hotline’s Amy Walter talking about the public dissatisfaction with Washington and how it’s affecting incumbents. You can click on the video here or watch the video below.

Indiana Senate Moved to Toss-Up

February 15, 2010 · 12:59 PM EST

Democratic Senator Evan Bayh’s sudden and surprising decision not to seek reelection this year is another blow to Democratic Senate prospects.

Bayh surely was the strongest candidate Indiana Democrats could have nominated – if only because of his years of proven electoral success and his $13…

It All Depends on the Meaning of Party Identification

February 9, 2010 · 10:32 AM EST

I’ll admit it. I like numbers.

Whether the number is a WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) when evaluating a baseball pitcher, a price-to-earnings ratio when evaluating a stock or a job approval when considering an incumbent’s re-election prospects, I rely on numbers to allow me to make…

PA 12 moved into competitive category

February 8, 2010 · 1:56 PM EST

The passing of Cong. John Murtha (D) and subsequent open seat creates a Republican takeover opportunity in Pennsylvania’s 12th District. Sen. John McCain carried the competitive district narrowly in 2008 while Sen. John Kerry won it with 51% in 2004.

We’ve also moved Connecticut’s 5th District…

GOP Bets on Super Bowl Vets in 2010

February 7, 2010 · 8:00 AM EST

Jon Runyan expected to be in Miami right now, getting ready to play in another Super Bowl, but instead he’s in New Jersey preparing to challenge an incumbent Member of Congress.

After a dozen years in the National Football League and off-season knee surgery last year, Runyan looked like he was…

For Republicans, Overconfidence Poses a Growing Problem

February 5, 2010 · 8:00 AM EST

Maybe House Republicans learned their lesson last week after President Barack Obama joined them at their retreat and proved once again to be a very formidable opponent rather than a mere foil.

But even if the president’s poised performance brought some of them back to reality, Democratic…

IL Governor Moved to Toss-Up

February 4, 2010 · 1:52 PM EST

In Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn’s (D) narrow primary victory exposed some significant weaknesses heading into the general election. State Comptroller Dan Hynes surged late but didn’t have enough time to overcome Quinn and now Republicans are happily repeating Hynes’ attack ads and themes. Quinn will…