Archive

An Anti-Incumbent Election? This Year? Of Course Not

by Stuart Rothenberg September 18, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

By Stuart Rothenberg

Over the past year or so, I’ve heard more than a few people talking about 2006 as an anti-incumbent election. Well, those people are wrong. We are not going to have an anti-incumbent election in November. We are going to have an anti-Bush election.

First, let’s get our…

Gubernatorial Races: Another Big Democratic Gain

by Stuart Rothenberg September 14, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

It is now clear that when the dust settles on Nov. 8, Democrats will find themselves holding a majority of governorships for the first time since the 1994 midterm elections, when Democratic ranks across the nation were decimated.

While Republicans currently hold 28 of the nation’s 50…

Texas 23:Democratic Strategy is the Only Constant

September 12, 2006 · 12:09 AM EDT

Former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) is as decisive as a kid in a candy store when it comes to his congressional bids. The former congressman bowed out of the race in Texas 23 early last week, citing family reasons and the inability to raise the necessary funds. Then, through a spokesman, Rodriguez…

Tennessee Senate: How Important Is a Poll in Rating a Race?

by Stuart Rothenberg September 11, 2006 · 12:05 AM EDT

I began this year rating the Tennessee Senate race between Democrat Harold Ford Jr. and Republican Bob Corker as “Clear Advantage” for the GOP, primarily because of the state’s recent political trends, concerns about how Ford’s race and family might affect his prospects, and assumptions about the…

New Print Edition: 2006 Senate Outlook

September 8, 2006 · 12:16 PM EDT
The new September 7, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. For subscription information- click here.

Senate Overview - The Lay of the Land

Democrats need a net gain of six seats to get to 51 seats in the next Senate, a difficult task since only 15…

New Print Edition: 2006 Senate Outlook

September 8, 2006 · 12:16 PM EDT

The new September 7, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. For subscription information- click here.

Senate Overview – The Lay of the Land

Democrats need a net gain of six seats to get to 51 seats in the next Senate, a difficult task since only 15…

Democrats Poised to Take Control of the House

by Stuart Rothenberg September 7, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

In a recent edition of my newsletter, I dissected, analyzed and evaluated dozens of districts in the fight for the House of Representatives and concluded what many of us have been assuming for weeks — Democrats are poised to gain 15 to 20 seats, giving them control of the House.

The 15- to…

NRCC Spin Goes Into Overdrive

September 6, 2006 · 12:12 PM EDT

It’s an old strategy: If you don’t like the news, shoot the messenger.

In this case, the strategy has been employed by National Republican Congressional Committee Communications Director Carl Forti, who chose to try to discredit me (and Charlie Cook) in a September 5 press release. Why? Because…

Facing a Wave, Republicans Could Still Win at Least One Dem Seat

September 1, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

Democrats need to net fifteen seats on November 7 in order to win a majority in the House. And that’s not an unreasonable goal, give that in the most recent edition of the Rothenberg Political Report, we predicted Democrats to gain between 15 and 20 seats.

But everyone (party strategists,…

Candidates from Both Parties Shun Partisan Label

August 28, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

Newsflash! President Bush is unpopular. No wonder Democrats across the country are dutifully attempting to tie every Republican candidate to their unpopular leader.

But most Republicans are under no illusions about the President’s standing or mood of the electorate. They know voters are hostile.…