An Empire State Headache for Republicans?

by Stuart Rothenberg March 22, 2006 · 11:05 PM EST

Looking for a sign of whether a big Democratic wave is developing? Try New York.

Once a state with genuine political competitiveness where liberal Republicans (including Thomas Dewey, Jacob Javits, Nelson Rockefeller and Ken Keating) prospered, the Empire State has veered toward the Democrats…

New York 24: Boehlert (R) Retirement Only a Small Opportunity

March 22, 2006 · 12:14 AM EST

Another Republican retirement. Another Republican open seat.

But while Democratic strategists will try to make Congressman Sherwood “Sherry” Boehlert’s retirement into an opportunity for a takeover, the Upstate New York district is likely to remain in GOP hands in November.

State Sen. Ray Meier (R)…

Local vs. National

March 21, 2006 · 12:05 AM EST

House Republicans are embracing former House Speaker Tip O’Neill’s famous line, “All politics is local,” but history suggests they may be taking it to their electoral grave. Midterm elections in 1966, 1974, 1982, and 1994 certainly weren’t local – they were national.


The Political Environment Isn’t George Allen’s Friend

March 20, 2006 · 12:05 AM EST

The brief stay by Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) as my frontrunner in the race for the Republican presidential nomination is over. It was much, much shorter than I expected.

But Allen, a first-term Senator who served as governor of the commonwealth of Virginia, didn’t lose that status because of his…

Minnesota 5: Martin Sabo (D) to Retire

March 17, 2006 · 4:59 PM EST

Fourteen-term Democratic Cong. Martin Sabo is announcing his retirement. His 5th District Minneapolis-based seat went for John Kerry 71%-28% in the 2004 presidential election. The race will only be contested in the Democratic primary.

Early potential candidates mentioned include Sabo’s chief of…

Reports of Bob Riley’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

by Stuart Rothenberg March 15, 2006 · 11:05 PM EST

Like Rasputin, who refused to die even after he was poisoned, shot three times and beaten with a 2-pound dumbbell, Alabama Gov. Bob Riley (R) is proving to be more resilient than many political observers once assumed.

Riley was pronounced politically dead by many — including me — more than two…

Georgia 12: Curb Your Enthusiasm

March 15, 2006 · 12:05 AM EST

Georgia’s 12th Congressional District was never supposed to elect a Republican. Max Burns didn’t win the seat in 2002, Democrats lost it, and after only one term, Burns was voted out of office. Now the former congressman is attempting a comeback in a slightly redrawn district, but Republicans…

NY Senate: Pardon Me While I Yawn

March 14, 2006 · 12:05 AM EST

Once again, the New York Senate race is receiving more attention than it deserves.

The decision by Kathleen Troia McFarland (R) to jump into the Republican Senate race has some GOP insiders smiling, and cable television news hosts jumping for joy.

Republicans hope that McFarland can make Clinton…

The 2008 Race Is on — and the Field Is Smaller Than You Think

by Stuart Rothenberg March 12, 2006 · 11:01 PM EST

If you turned on C-SPAN last Sunday evening, you may have noticed that the network’s “Road to the White House 2008” was broadcasting a Feb. 20 speech by Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) to the Spartanburg County (S.C.) Republican Party.

Huckabee is mentioned as a possible contender for the GOP…

New Print Edition: 2006 Gubernatorial Outlook

March 10, 2006 · 2:07 PM EST
The new March 10, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.)

2006 Gubernatorial Outlook

The mood nationally is shifting toward change, and Republicans are playing defense in governorships this cycle, along with their…