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2008 Senate Overview (October 10, 2008)

October 10, 2008 · 12:40 PM EDT

After a brief post-convention bounce that made Republicans hopeful about their prospects, public and private polling has soured for the GOP. Voters are blaming the nation’s financial crisis on Republicans, causing the candidates’ poll numbers to sink noticeably.

Republican Senate seats in…

For Republicans, Another Blood Bath Looms on Horizon

by Stuart Rothenberg October 9, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

I’ve seen this movie before, and I know how it ends. Republican candidates from presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) down to Congressional hopefuls have less than four weeks to figure out how to avert a repeat of 2006. Increasingly, it appears unlikely that they will.

It’s obvious to…

Obama Maintaining Status Quo With White Evangelicals

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 8, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

After months of well-publicized outreach to evangelicals, the Democratic Party and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign are struggling to outperform the normal Democratic vote.

A Sept. 4-21 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) survey for Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly showed…

Democratic Senate Candidates Bail on Rescue Bill

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 7, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

While Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama and the Democratic leadership in the Senate voted in favor of the bailout bill, the party’s top candidates for the Senate are almost unanimously against it.

The bill passed 74-25 in the Senate Wednesday, with the support of Obama (Ill.), Senate…

Wild Cards Create Wild Scenarios in Congressional Races

by Stuart Rothenberg October 6, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

While third-party and Independent candidates for president remain largely irrelevant to the battle between Democratic Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), three nontraditional candidates in other races are proving to be more important.

In Minnesota, former Sen. Dean…

Two Democrats Earn Top Score From Conservative Group

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 3, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

Two socially conservative groups unveiled their vote ratings this week, and a couple of Democrats made the list of House Members with perfect scores during the 110th Congress.

FRC Action and Focus on the Family Action released their Vote Scorecard, rating Members on 17 votes deemed critical to…

Plenty of Questions Still Remain in This Bifurcated Election

by Stuart Rothenberg October 2, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

Is the presidential race opening up for Democratic Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), or is GOP Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) in the middle of a comeback even as analysts note that the financial crisis is hurting the GOP?

Are Democratic House and Senate candidates getting a bounce because of the crisis, or…

2 of 3 Cuban Republicans Vulnerable in South Florida

October 1, 2008 · 3:30 PM EDT

At the beginning of each election cycle, Republican and Democratic campaign strategists are armed with a list of potential targets — based on anecdotes, possible challengers and carefully compiled statistics to make their case against supposedly vulnerable incumbents.

Not surprisingly, some…

Florida 13: Jennings’ Poll Neglects Reality

October 1, 2008 · 11:50 AM EDT

A new poll released by Florida Democrat Christine Jennings is a great example of why it’s important to not accept polling numbers and memos at face value.

Two years ago, Jennings lost the 13th district open-seat race by the slimmest of margins, 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent, to Republican Vern…

2008 House Ratings

September 30, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

Here are our latest House ratings. Our latest estimate is a Democratic gain of 10-20 seats.

Any seats not listed are currently considered to be at limited risk for the incumbent party. For our race-by-race analysis, you must subscribe to the print edition of the Report.

# = Moved benefiting…