Inside Elections

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

After nearly two years of campaigning, 52 days is still plenty of time for the midterm elections to develop.

Most of the races are finally fully engaged and the rest of September will be the proving ground for the effectiveness of GOP attack ads. If Republicans can effectively discredit Democratic challengers, they can keep their losses to a minimum and potentially maintain the House. But if the ads fall on deaf ears and blind eyes, Democrats will regain the House majority. 

Some Republicans aren’t panicking yet. Their optimism is likely fueled by vulnerable Reps. Carlos Curbelo of Florida and Will Hurd of Texas being in strong position for re-election. And some even believe Barbara Comstock of Virginia has a chance of winning. But those limited performances mask the large number of headaches Republicans are experiencing in second and third tier races where the incumbent may not have had a tough race in years.

Democrats are still most likely to gain the 23 seats necessary for a majority, but it’s not a mortal lock. Our current outlook is a Democratic gain of 22-32 seats. But with a large number of close races, a shift of a couple points in either direction would have a dramatic impact on the the results.

While there are also a large number of tight races in the Senate, Republicans are most likely to retain their majority. Democrats have a path to gain the two seats they need, but it’s still narrow and requires them to win…