Inside Elections

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

No matter what happens, the 2020 elections will be historic. With impeachment, a pandemic, economic crisis, a national conversation about racism, and the death of a Supreme Court icon, this election cycle is already unforgettable, even before knowing the actual results.  

While it’s possible that Donald J. Trump shocks the world again, as a mass of voters that coyly hid from dozens of pollsters deliver him a second term, that’s not the most likely outcome.

With less than a week to go, Joe Biden has the advantage over Trump in the race for the White House. Most of the polling at the national, state, and House district level paints the same picture of a slumping Trump. The president is underperforming in states and districts across the country compared to his own marks four years ago, leading to an Electoral College battlefield that would have been practically unimaginable a few years ago. 

As Biden maintains narrow but consistent edges in Georgia and North Carolina, those states shift to Tilt Democratic. Texas moves to Toss-up, leaving the former vice president with a 350-125 advantage in the Electoral College. At this point, a Biden landslide is at least as likely as a Trump victory. 

The president’s struggles at the top of the ticket are contributing to GOP problems down the ballot. 

Trump’s inability to match or exceed 2016 in key states has widened the Senate battlefield, giving Democrats multiple paths to the majority.…