Arizona 1: Open Seat Shifts to Toss-up
One of the most competitive House races in the country has gotten a little more complicated with Republican Rep. David Schweikert announcing that he won’t seek re-election to Arizona’s 1st District.
After winning by less than a point in 2022 and 4 points in 2024, Schweikert was near the top of Democratic target lists once again from his Scottsdale-area district that has a Republican Baseline advantage of just 1.5 points.
While Donald Trump carried the seat by 3 points over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race, Democrat Ruben Gallego finished ahead of his GOP opponent by 5 points in the Senate contest. District voters backed Democrat Mark Kelly by nearly 7 points in the 2022 Senate race, and Joe Biden bested Trump by a point in the 2020 presidential contest.
In other words, the district is fundamentally competitive.
Schweikert wasn’t the perfect candidate — even GOP allies wanted him to raise more money and he paid tens of thousands of dollars in fines over ethics violations — but he absorbed millions of dollars in Democratic attacks over the years and still prevailed. Now that he’s running for governor, there’s more uncertainty in the race. We’re changing the Inside Elections rating from Tilt Republican to Toss-up, which is a category better for Democrats.
Considering the seat just officially became open, the GOP race is still taking shape. Potential GOP candidates include state Reps. Matt Gress, Justin Wilmeth, Joseph Chaplik and Pam Carter. State Rep.…
