House News & Analysis

Can Democrats Win the House in 2016?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 15, 2015 · 8:45 AM EST

Democrats have a better chance of winning control of the House next year than they did at any time in 2014. That’s true even though they now need to gain 30 seats, almost twice what they needed last year.

No, I’m not suggesting Democrats will win the House in…

Will Improving Economy Help Obama’s Case on Keystone?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 12, 2015 · 8:30 AM EST

Events matter in politics and, for a change, they potentially seem to offer a bit of aid and comfort to President Barack Obama in his upcoming battle with the Republican-controlled Congress.

After an impressive across-the-board victory that included a new Senate majority, gains to the party’s House majority and…

Republican to Retire from Competitive House Seat in New York

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 5, 2015 · 10:31 PM EST

GOP Rep. Chris Gibson of New York is set to announce his retirement on Tuesday, according to two Republican sources. 

Gibson won re-election in November in convincing fashion with a 65 percent to 35 percent victory over self-funding Democrat Sean Eldridge. But the open seat should be extremely competitive as…

Very Early Handicapping on Special Election in New York’s 11th District

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 2, 2015 · 3:08 PM EST

For political operatives, reporters and junkies there isn’t a more appropriate way to kick off a new year and new election cycle than a special election in New York.

Special elections in the Empire State have became a nearly-annual affair. And thanks to GOP Rep. Michael G. Grimm’s resignation,…

Beltway View Clashes with District Dynamic in Illinois’ 12th

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 19, 2014 · 4:00 PM EST

Inside the Beltway, Mike Bost was the unhinged Republican known for his rant on the floor of the Illinois Legislature and for shooting a caged beagle. So how did he defeat a Democratic incumbent by more than 10 points?

What looked like an angry liability to many Washington, D.C.…

Loss Puts Terry in Exclusive Club

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 19, 2014 · 3:59 PM EST

It takes quite a feat for a Republican congressman to lose re-election in the middle of a historically-good election for the GOP. But that’s exactly what Nebraska Rep. Lee Terry and Florida Rep. Steve Southerland pulled off in 2014. 

Nearly 99 percent of all GOP incumbents seeking re-election in…

Rothenberg’s End of the Year Awards for 2014

by Stuart Rothenberg December 3, 2014 · 3:29 PM EST

Well, we’ve made it through another strange political year — and let’s face it, they are all strange — so it’s time for me to devote another column to picking the best, the worst and the weirdest candidates, campaigns and outcomes of the year.

As always, I will…

How to Handle a Broken Campaign Promise

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 2, 2014 · 10:20 AM EST

Broken campaign promises complicate a politician’s re-election effort, but they don’t have to be fatal.

This cycle, when faced with their own words from a previous campaign, two incumbents utilized different strategies in their quest for another term.

One of the most famous examples of a broken…

Don’t Call 2014 An Anti-Incumbent Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 1, 2014 · 10:20 AM EST

Before the holiday, I had a piece on FiveThirtyEight.com talking about so-called "anti-incumbent elections." A couple of excerpts are below but feel free to read the whole piece. 

Despite a stunningly low congressional approval rating and many calls to “throw all the bums…

What Did — and Didn’t — Surprise Me This Cycle

by Stuart Rothenberg November 29, 2014 · 8:30 AM EST

Every election cycle is filled with twists and turns, upsets and surprises. And every cycle is filled with goofy arguments, warnings about things that never happen and unsurprising outcomes that surprise only the politically uneducated.

For me, the biggest surprises included Dave Brat’s primary upset of House Majority…