House News & Analysis

2014: Plenty of Surprises, but None Totally Unexpected

by Stuart Rothenberg November 7, 2014 · 12:08 PM EST

Yes, that was a wave. A big one. In many respects, it was a wave that was larger and more damaging to Democrats than in 2010.

Republicans now have more House seats, more Senate seats and more governorships than they did after the humongous GOP wave of 2010.…

The Midterms and the Super Bowl, a Tale of Two Routs

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 5, 2014 · 12:00 PM EST

A week before the election, Stu waded into the discussion about what constitutes an electoral wave. One of his main points: “I know it when I see it.” Well, we saw it on Tuesday.

While Republicans gained more House and Senate seats than the most likely…

Jesse Ferguson Lives to Fight Another Day

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 4, 2014 · 8:30 AM EST

The lede almost writes itself: One year ago, Jesse Ferguson never would have thought beating cancer would be easier than defeating Republicans in the House. But that’s just not how the Democratic operative does business.

As director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm, Ferguson is…

Election Eve Update: House Republicans on Edge of Good, Great Election Night

November 3, 2014 · 12:37 PM EST

The only question in the House is the size of the Republican gains. Our range continues to be a gain of 5-12 seats for the GOP, but it’s possible that the party exceeds that.

GOP strategists are trying to tamp down expectations by saying that gains in the…

Obama’s Midterm Loss Record Could Make History

by Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2014 · 10:52 AM EDT

President Barack Obama is about to do what no president has done in the past 50 years: Have two horrible, terrible, awful midterm elections in a row.

In fact, Obama is likely to have the worst midterm numbers of any two-term president going back to Democrat Harry S.…

Think more competitive House races would help? They might actually make things worse.

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 31, 2014 · 2:34 PM EDT

Here’s the rare idea about which both Democrats and Republicans agree: Way too few members of Congress emerge from competitive House races — and it’s causing problems.

“Put congressional reform atop the national agenda,” wrote David Brooks recently. “More states could have open primaries. Nonpartisan commissions could…

House Outlook: Measuring the GOP Wave

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 29, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

Republicans are going to add to their majority in the House. But even though Election Day is just days away, it’s unclear how many seats the party will add.

President Barack Obama’s mediocre job approval rating has cast a shadow over the entire House landscape and has Democrats…

What Counts As a GOP Wave in 2014?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 28, 2014 · 10:56 AM EDT

Most neutral observers expect Republicans to take the Senate and make at least small gains in the House, but talk about a possible GOP political wave has all but disappeared.

However, ten days to go until Election Day, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a “wave” election…

Will Obama Leave the Democratic Party Better Than He Found It?

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 27, 2014 · 9:00 AM EDT

Barack Obama was elected on a swell of energy and enthusiasm, but he might leave the Democratic Party worse off than when he took office.

The disconnect between the Obama political operation and Democratic strategists focused on Congress is nothing new. Congressional Democrats have always been a bit…

Seven More House Races Creep Toward Republicans

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 24, 2014 · 12:15 PM EDT

The good news for House Republicans just keeps coming as another half-dozen races shift in the GOP’s direction.

House races often get far less media attention than Senate races or gubernatorial contests, and they therefore often develop later in the cycle. With less than two weeks before the…