House News & Analysis

Swing Voters, GOP to Democrats: You’re Fired!

by Stuart Rothenberg November 5, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

There were many messages and lessons to be drawn from the 2010 midterm results, but the most obvious one is that Republican, conservative and swing voters fired Democrats — even Democrats they liked, and even Democrats who took care to vote as their constituents wanted.

Sure, freshmen Democratic…

As America Votes, It’s All Over but the Shouting

by Stuart Rothenberg November 2, 2010 · 10:25 AM EDT

So what happened this election cycle? As voters across the country head to the polls today, here are a few thoughts.

• Democrats never succeeded in changing the trajectory of the election cycle that developed roughly midway through last year.

Once voters decided President Barack Obama and…

Big Gulf Between Parties on Spending Strategies

by Stuart Rothenberg October 30, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

Election Day is still five days off, but already Republican strategists are whispering that they outmaneuvered their Democratic counterparts.

The National Republican Congressional Committee and certain other GOP-allied groups adopted a reasonable but risky strategy, which proved effective. Those strategists decided to spend their limited financial resources early…

2010 House Overview (October 28, 2010)

October 28, 2010 · 11:43 PM EDT

More than a few Democratic veterans of the political wars are now talking about their party suffering extraordinary losses of at least 60 seats. The problem that both they and we see is that dozens of Democratic incumbents are sitting under 50% in ballot tests (and often in the…

Will the House Losses Be Bad or Horrendous?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 27, 2010 · 10:03 AM EDT

With a week to go until Election Day, House Democrats face the potential of a political bloodbath the size of which we haven’t seen since the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

The largest midterm House loss for the president’s party during the last 50 years was 52 seats…

DCCC going on NYC television for Hall

October 25, 2010 · 4:23 PM EDT

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is slated to air ads, starting Tuesday, on broadcast television in the expensive New York City media market to help Cong. John Hall (D – 19th District).

Public and private polls show that Hall is locked in a very competitive race against GOP…

2010 House Overview (October 22, 2010)

October 22, 2010 · 5:58 PM EDT

The number of Democratic incumbents who are sitting in the middle or low 40s in ballot tests is mind-boggling, creating a stunning number of opportunities for the GOP. Democrats dispute that assessment, arguing that their incumbents are much better off. But Republican polling finds eight or nine dozen Democratic…

It’s a Roller Coaster for Some House Hopefuls

by Stuart Rothenberg October 20, 2010 · 10:45 AM EDT

One of the interesting things about elections is how races ebb and flow. Some incumbents who seemed to have no chance to survive a couple of months ago are still hanging in there, even giving themselves a real chance to win. On the other hand, some presumably safe incumbents…

It’s Desperation Time on the Campaign Trail

by Stuart Rothenberg October 18, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

That odor you smell is the odor of desperation.

Whether it is on the TV show “Mad Men” in the offices of Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce, which has lost a majority of its billings and must sign up new businesses to survive, or from politicians and campaigns who…

2010 House Overview (October 15, 2010)

October 15, 2010 · 3:58 PM EDT

There is an extremely large field of competitive races. Right before Election Day 2006, when Democrats picked up 30 seats, we were carrying 62 races on our list (57 held by Republicans and 5 held by Democrats). In this issue, our chart includes 100 competitive races (91 Democrats and…