House News & Analysis

Fate of ’06 House Takeovers May Mirror ’08 Party Prospects

Stuart Rothenberg November 14, 2007 · 11:05 PM EST

One of the reasons that some National Republican Congressional Committee strategists are hopeful of gaining seats next year, or at least minimizing further losses, is that they expect to win back some of the House seats that the party lost in last year’s Democratic wave.

In any wave…

Illinois 14: New Lauzen Poll Shows Dead Heat

November 6, 2007 · 4:26 PM EST

Chris Lauzen (R) is pushing back against some conventional wisdom, and has numbers to make his case. The state senator is running to replace former House Speaker Dennis Hastert in Illinois 14, but faces a very competitive primary with wealthy businessman Jim Oberweis (R).

An October 22-23 Public Opinion Strategies…

Here We Go Again: An Anti-Incumbent Wave Next Year?

Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

Some story lines never go away.

This year, once again, there is buzz that 2008 might be an anti-incumbent election that will sweep out sitting House Members of both parties. National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) has been making that case for months, and more than…

Rothenberg Highlights Dangerous Not Quite Dozen Open Seats

Stuart Rothenberg October 29, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

For a number of cycles now, I’ve periodically focused on open House seats as a way of evaluating the direction of the overall cycle. No, there still aren’t a dozen open seats that could possibly flip party control. But there are enough open seats worth rating. The list below…

New Print Edition: New Hampshire Senate & New York 19

October 24, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

The October 22, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well…

Republican Recruiting

Stuart Rothenberg October 23, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

In the face of growing dissatisfaction with the Iraq War and President Bush, Republicans have recruited an increasing number of military veterans to run for Congress in 2008 — including some soldiers currently serving overseas who will begin campaigning upon their return.

Those Republican veterans may be emboldened…

Mood   Money   GOP Retirements = Democratic Bonanza

Stuart Rothenberg October 22, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

Still more than a year out from the 2008 elections, only a fool would assert unequivocally which party will gain House seats and how large that gain will be. But even with more retirements likely and candidate recruitment still far from over, it is starting to look like another…

Have the Republicans Picked Another Losing Fight on SCHIP?

Stuart Rothenberg October 15, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

The Republicans’ circular firing squad is now assembled. All that’s left is for someone — President Bush, House Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio) or Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) — to yell the appropriate command: “Fire!”

With their House and Senate caucuses deeply divided, Republicans have one…

For Incumbents, 2008 Is Shaping Up as the Year of the Primary

Stuart Rothenberg October 11, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

With a strong majority of voters dissatisfied with the performance of President Bush and Congress, and with seven in 10 Americans telling pollsters that the country is on the wrong track, it isn’t entirely surprising that a dozen serious primaries could develop for Republican House incumbents this election cycle.

Washington 8: Outcome of Northwest Rerun Could Rest on the National Mood

Stuart Rothenberg October 9, 2007 · 10:16 AM EDT

Darcy Burner is back, and the former Microsoft employee is understandably optimistic about her rematch against GOP incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert.

Burner, 36, came out of nowhere to draw almost 49 percent against Reichert last year in a suburban Seattle district that has been inching away from its…