House News & Analysis

2010 House Overview (October 15, 2010)

October 15, 2010 · 3:58 PM EDT

There is an extremely large field of competitive races. Right before Election Day 2006, when Democrats picked up 30 seats, we were carrying 62 races on our list (57 held by Republicans and 5 held by Democrats). In this issue, our chart includes 100 competitive races (91 Democrats and…

Outside Cash Will Keep GOP Flush in Final Weeks

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 15, 2010 · 10:04 AM EDT

When you’re short on cash, spending more isn’t usually the best idea. But for national Republicans, an aggressive program of early spending helped soften the Democratic landscape for the current GOP surge.

And now, a coalition of outside groups has announced a massive spending plan that could allow…

5 Surprises the Wave May Wash Out in November

by Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

Political waves create a great deal of uncertainty. If there is a wave, exactly how big will it be? Who could possibly be swept away in the tsunami?

In a cycle when Republican House strategists are talking about taking out Democratic veterans such as Budget Chairman John Spratt…

Friend or Foe, U.S. Chamber Plays Both Roles for Democrats

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 12, 2010 · 9:38 AM EDT

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has become a very polarizing group — within the Democratic Party.

While some Democrats this week seized on a study, initiated by the liberal blog Think Progress, that alleged the Chamber of Commerce is using foreign money for its political efforts, others were…

Ohio 1: DCCC Cancels Driehaus Ads

by Stuart Rothenberg October 11, 2010 · 11:54 AM EDT

Media sources in the Cincinnati media market confirmed to the Rothenberg Political Report this morning that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has cancelled its media buys after this week.

The market covers the highly competitive Ohio 1st District, where incumbent Steve Driehaus (D) is in an uphill bid…

2010 House Overview (October 8, 2010)

October 8, 2010 · 3:58 PM EDT

With an avalanche of GOP polling showing dozens of Democratic incumbents at risk – including many that one would never expect – it’s getting hard to separate the truly vulnerable from the possibly at risk. While our overall outlook remains unchanged – Republican gains are most likely to fall…

Early Battlefields Emerge in the Nation’s Middle

by Stuart Rothenberg October 7, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

While the fight for the control of the House of Representatives is taking place on a battlefield that includes almost every state (Alaska and Wyoming are among the exceptions), four Congressional districts have emerged as early battlefields in the Independent Expenditures war being waged by the two parties’ campaign…

Race Fundamentals Are Telling for Vulnerables

by Stuart Rothenberg October 6, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

Democrats are pushing back these days with polls and political scenarios, trying to change the national narrative and force handicappers onto the defensive.

There is a Democratic mini-surge going on, we are told, as some campaigns produce poll numbers showing they have been prematurely written off as, well,…

New York 23: Hoffman Out, Race Moves to Toss-Up

October 5, 2010 · 2:26 PM EDT

Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman suspended his campaign in New York’s 23rd District, dramatically improving the Republicans’ chances of winning back a seat they lost less than a year ago.

Democrat Bill Owens won the GOP open seat in a November 2009 special election after the GOP splintered…

Scenario #3: A GOP Tsunami Crashes Over Congress

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 5, 2010 · 9:52 AM EDT

One month before Election Day and this much is clear: Democrats will take a pounding when frustrated (and in some cases unemployed) voters go to the polls. Public opinion polls show a majority of Americans are unhappy with the present course of the country and are impatient for a…