South Carolina 1: Top Race in the Lowcountry
In the wake of a historic House vote, there’s no hotter topic than impeachment and no better place to look for fallout than South Carolina’s 1st District.
Rep. Joe Cunningham is one 30 Democrats who represent districts that Donald Trump carried in the 2016 presidential election. And among that group, the congressman is a top five GOP takeover target.
Republicans believe Cunningham’s votes to impeach the president will ruin his moderate image. But he starts his re-election race with higher-than-usual positive rating for a first-term incumbent and it remains to be seen whether impeachment is at the top of voters’ minds 10 months from now.
It’s shaping up to be a top-tier battle between one of Democrats’ strongest freshmen and one of Republicans’ top challengers anywhere in the country, at a time when both parties are confident in their impeachment standing.
Bellwether races can be hard to find these days, but there’s virtually no chance Republicans come anywhere close to the House majority without defeating Cunningham in South Carolina.
The Lay of the Land
The 1st District is anchored by Charleston but stretches along South Carolina’s coast, from Hilton Head Island north to Santee Coastal Reserve, and inland to include Summerville. It’s known as the Lowcountry area of the state.
At the presidential level, the district has not been close. Trump carried it by 13 points (53.5-40.4 percent) in 2016, Mitt Romney carried it by 18 points (58-40 percent) in 2012, and…
