2020 Senate Overview (Jan. 4, 2019): We’ve Only Just Begun
President Donald Trump declared victory on Election Night 2018 when Republicans picked up a couple Senate seats, keeping their majority. But Democrats held their losses to a minimum in the face of a challenging map, which keeps them within reach of the majority in 2020.
The number of seats Democrats need to control the Senate depends on the outcome of the presidential race. A gain of four seats will result in a majority no matter the presidential outcome, while a gain of three seats would be enough for a new Democratic vice president to be the tie-breaker.
While Republicans are defending more seats this cycle (22-12), in a stark contrast to last cycle, the initial field of competitive states might be too narrow for Democrats. The 2016 election was the first time in history that all of the senate results matched the presidential outcome. A similar dynamic would produce no net gain for Democrats because they would lose Alabama and Michigan while winning Colorado and Maine. Using the 2012 presidential results as a guide, Democrats would gain two Senate seats. If the 2008 presidential results applied, Democrats would gain three seats.
Overall, the presidential race will impact the fight for the Senate in multiple ways. Eight races will take place in competitive presidential states: Maine, Iowa, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Minnesota. There are at least two races with incumbent senators contemplating running for president (New Jersey…
