Senate News & Analysis

Another Year of Prognostication Ups and Downs

by Stuart Rothenberg December 14, 2011 · 11:37 AM EST

“Regrets, I’ve had a few,” Frank Sinatra sings in one of his signature songs, “My Way,” and that should be a sentiment that every political analyst, handicapper and forecaster feels as he or she looks back on a body of work from the previous 12 months.

Few people…

Fight for Senate Hinges on Six White House Battlegrounds

by Stuart Rothenberg December 7, 2011 · 9:48 AM EST

With 11 months to go until the 2012 elections, the fight for control of the Senate already seems to boil down to a dozen states.

If, as many believe, we have entered a new era of parliamentary-type voting, when ticket-splitting becomes increasingly rare and the top of the…

North Dakota Senate: Race in the Mirror Not as Close as It Appears

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 2, 2011 · 1:57 PM EST

You know Democrats are on the defensive in the Senate when they are desperately making the case that one of their open seats is still competitive and not a lost cause.

North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad’s (D) surprise retirement took a safe Democratic seat and turned it into…

Why Isn’t North Dakota’s Senate Race a Tossup?

by Stuart Rothenberg December 2, 2011 · 10:06 AM EST

Two polls conducted by reputable Democratic pollsters show Republican Rep. Rick Berg to be in serious trouble in the North Dakota Senate race, especially now that former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) has entered the race.

The first survey, conducted in mid-August well before Heitkamp jumped into…

2012 Senate Overview (November 18, 2011)

by Stuart Rothenberg November 18, 2011 · 4:29 PM EST

The Senate has been “in play” for months, but Republicans continue to expand the playing field by adding unexpected candidates in states from Hawaii and Michigan to Connecticut – all states where the GOP shouldn’t even be in the ballgame.

Even if the races in those states don’t…

Hawaii Senate: Same Faces, Different Races

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 4, 2011 · 12:59 PM EDT

If Linda Lingle can’t win next year, it’s going to be a long time before Republicans ever get another senator from Hawaii.

A former two-term governor with a moderate image, Lingle gives Republicans a legitimate chance to win the open seat vacated by Sen. Daniel Akaka’s (D) retirement.

Michigan Senate: Still Cooking

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 22, 2011 · 12:00 AM EDT

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) leads in money and leads in the polls but the Senate race in Michigan isn’t over yet. The state’s junior senator has been on the other side of the equation. A dozen years ago, GOP Sen. Spencer Abraham was in a similar position in the…

Hawaii Senate: Lingle Makes Race More Competitive

October 21, 2011 · 11:54 PM EDT

It appears that Republicans have pulled yet another Democratic seat onto the Senate playing field. After taking nine months to decide, former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) announced she would run for the open seat in Hawaii being vacated by retiring Sen. Daniel Akaka (D).

Her candidacy means Democrats…

West Virginia Senate: Manchin Moved to Safer Rating

October 21, 2011 · 11:53 PM EDT

Sen. Joe Manchin (D) remains the most popular politician in West Virginia. He’s successfully defined himself apart from President Obama and the national Democratic Party, and a majority of Republicans (not just all voters) give him a positive job rating.

Obama will lose West Virginia by a wide…

Why Is There So Much Mud in South Carolina?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 19, 2011 · 12:52 PM EDT

When South Carolina state Rep. Thad Viers (R) came in for an interview recently, I wasn’t sure what to expect.

I knew that he was a successful, young officeholder who surely was one of the favorites to win in the Palmetto State’s new Congressional district. I knew that…