Outlook

Democrats have a 233-201 majority, with one Libertarian (Amash). Republicans need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority. Democrats are most likely to maintain control with the most likely outcome range: Democratic net gain of 10-20 seats.

  • Shift Republican
  • Shift Democratic

Currently Safe Seats

Democrat: 207 Republican: 161

Seats in Play

Democrat: 26 New Seats: 0 Republican: 40

Toss-up

Democrat: 5 Republican: 14
AZ 6 R Schweikert
CA 21 D Cox
CA 25 R M. Garcia
IL 13 R R. Davis
IN 5 R Open S. Brooks
MI 3 I Open Amash
MN 1 R Hagedorn
MN 7 D Peterson
MO 2 R Wagner
NE 2 R Bacon
NJ 2 R Van Drew
NM 2 D Torres Small
NY 11 D M. Rose
NY 2 R Open P. King
OH 1 R Chabot
OK 5 D Horn
PA 10 R Perry
TX 21 R Roy
TX 22 R Open Olson
TX 24 R Open Marchant

Tilt Democratic

Democrat: 6 Republican: 2
FL 26 D Mucarsel-Powell
GA 7 R Open Woodall
IA 1 D Finkenauer
IA 2 D Open Loebsack
NY 22 D Brindisi
TX 23 R Open Hurd
UT 4 D McAdams
VA 7 D Spanberger

Lean Democratic

Democrat: 6 Republican: 0
CA 48 D Rouda
GA 6 D McBath
IA 3 D Axne
NJ 7 D Malinowski
SC 1 D Cunningham
VA 2 D Luria

Likely Democratic

Democrat: 9 Republican: 2
AZ 1 D O'Halleran
CA 39 D Cisneros
NC 2 R Open Holding
NC 6 R Open Walker
NH 1 D Pappas
NJ 3 D Kim
NV 3 D S. Lee
OR 4 D DeFazio
PA 17 D Lamb
TX 7 D Fletcher
WI 3 D Kind

Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 3
AR 2 R Hill
NY 24 R Katko
VA 5 R Open Riggleman

Lean Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 6
CO 3 R Open Tipton
FL 15 R Open Spano
MT 1 R Open Gianforte
NC 8 R Hudson
NY 1 R Zeldin
PA 1 R Fitzpatrick

Likely Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 13
AK 1 R Young
CA 50 R VACANT
FL 16 R Buchanan
FL 18 R Mast
MI 6 R Upton
NC 11 R Open VACANT
OH 10 R Turner
TX 10 R McCaul
TX 2 R Crenshaw
TX 25 R Williams
TX 3 R Taylor
TX 6 R Wright
WA 3 R Herrera Beutler