Looking for Clues From a 2005 Special Election in Ohio

Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2017 · 3:27 PM EDT

Are Democrats in the early stages of their own tea party movement? It’s one of the biggest outstanding questions at this point in the cycle. But as we collectively look at the past for prologue, I don’t understand why our memories only go back eight years.

There was a time, not too long ago, when Democrats were out of the White House and in the minority in both chambers of Congress, and a demoralizing presidential election loss helped jump-start a movement back to the majority.

The initial focus this year is on the special election to replace former Republican Rep. Tom Price in Georgia’s 6th District, one of four vacant seats created by President Donald Trump’s Cabinet selections.

Trump narrowly carried the suburban Atlanta district over Hillary Clinton 48-47 percent last fall. That result has drawn national Democratic and media interest, even though the partisan lean of the district is probably closer to Price’s 62-38 percent victory last fall or Mitt Romney’s 61-38 percent margin over President Barack Obama in 2012.

But that doesn’t mean Democrats can’t come close in the June special election runoff.

In 2005, Democrats were reeling after losing the previous year’s presidential election to unpopular incumbent George W. Bush. When Bush subsequently selected GOP Rep. Rob…

Senate Landscape Not as Rosy for the GOP as It Once Was

Stuart Rothenberg March 22, 2017 · 9:16 AM EDT

If Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 presidential election, the GOP would now be headed to a dramatic 6-8 seat Senate gain next year, maybe even more, if history is any guide.

But with Donald Trump in the White House, Republican prospects are much less certain.

That doesn’t mean the GOP can’t or…

Off-Year Governors Races Look Challenging for GOP

Stuart Rothenberg March 14, 2017 · 10:00 AM EDT

Gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey will get plenty of attention this year, in part because of Donald Trump’s victory and the developing divisions in the two major parties.

Observers will be looking for possible signs that Trump’s “new” Republican Party is changing the political…

Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin’s Bid for Second Term

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Nathan L. Gonzales March 13, 2017 · 3:00 PM EDT

From recalls to top-tier Senate races, Wisconsin is never too far from the spotlight. And now that Donald Trump narrowly won the state’s 10 electoral votes in 2016 and Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is up for re-election in 2018, Wisconsin will get plenty of attention once again.

Baldwin is one of…

Illinois House: Democrats Eye Fresh Takeover Opportunities

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Nathan L. Gonzales March 13, 2017 · 2:59 PM EDT

After gaining six seats in 2016, Democrats are still two dozen short of a House majority. That doesn’t mean the House majority is out of reach for Democrats, particularly in a midterm election with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office. But they’ll need to gain multiple districts in at least a…