2018 House Overview: Early Warning Signs for GOP

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Nathan L. Gonzales May 19, 2017 · 2:30 PM EDT

After the 2016 elections, I’ve ruled out ruling things out. 

Of course not every result has an equal chance of coming true, but I think it’s OK to embrace uncertainty for a set of elections that won’t take place for another year-and-a-half. Roughly the same people who were certain Hillary Clinton would be elected president 18 days from the 2016 election are now certain about what will happen (a Republican wipeout) in races 18 months from now. I don’t think it’s wise to be so confident about the outcome of the midterm elections at this stage.

But don’t get me wrong. I believe Democrats are going to have a good or great year in the House in 2018. The out-party has the advantage of history (the president’s party has lost an average of 33 House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections) and the current dynamics (President Donald Trump’s slumping job rating and Democratic candidates overperforming in special elections). 

This week, we’ve changed our ratings in 19 districts, all in favor of Democrats and including adding nine seats to our list of competitive races. Any talk about “no district is safe” is hyperbole but with the combination of history, Trump’s job rating, and anti-Trump enthusiasm, our ratings need to reflect a broader playing field with the possibility that more…

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) Alabama - Iowa

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May 19, 2017 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama.
2nd District (Martha Roby, R, re-elected in 2016 with 49%).
2016 Presidential Winner: Trump 65%. The congresswoman was re-elected with less than 50 percent last year when a conservative write-in candidate received nearly 11 percent after Roby pulled her support from Trump because of the…

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) Kansas - New York

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Nathan L. Gonzales May 19, 2017 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kansas.
2nd District (Open; Lynn Jenkins, R, not seeking re-election).
Trump 56%. The combination of an open seat and a strong Democratic candidate (former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis) makes this an interesting race, even though Trump won handily. Davis lost the 2014 gubernatorial race…

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) North Carolina - Wyoming

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May 19, 2017 · 2:27 PM EDT

North Carolina.
9th District (Robert Pittenger, R, re-elected 58%)
. Trump 54%. The federal investigation into the congressman closed without charges, but Democrats aren’t letting Pittenger off the hook. The party is poised to land an interesting recruit: solar energy financier Dan McCready, who is…