2018 Gubernatorial Overview (Aug. 31, 2018): Mix and Match Opportunities
By now it should be clear that the fights for the House and Senate majorities are being played out on two politically different maps. But the race to collect governorships is being fought on yet another battleground.
Democrats need to defend and win GOP-leaning states in order to take back the Senate, but they can target districts Hillary Clinton carried or President Donald Trump won only narrowly to win a majority in the House. To gain ground in governorships, on the other hand, Democrats are looking to make significant gains in the Midwest and also have credible candidates in some deep red Southern states.
Overall, this is a vast and important cycle for gubernatorial races. Thirty-six of 50 states are electing a governor this year, including nine of the 10 largest states. These races aren’t just important because they elect each state’s chief executive, but also because 26 of the governors elected this fall will play a role in the next round of redistricting in the House, following the 2020 census. With their veto or approval powers, these governors will help shape Congress for a decade.
Because voters sometimes judge candidates for state office on different criteria than federal candidates, unique political dynamics can develop. For example, Democrats have a better chance of winning gubernatorial races in Wisconsin, Iowa, and Kansas than they do in Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maryland. And Republicans have a chance of knocking out Oregon’s and Rhode Island’s…
