Predicting election outcomes can be a fraught business. You don’t have to look further than the 2016 presidential race to see that.
But for some races, one candidate has such an advantage -- due to the constituency’s partisan lean, candidate quality, or other factors -- that their path to office is nearly assured. Those are the races rated as Solid by Inside Elections.
When incumbents in solid seats retire, they often set up competitive primaries that dovetail into uncompetitive general elections. Inside Elections is keeping track of those races and who wins them, since those winners have the inside track to Washington, DC. As more states hold their primaries, we’ll continue to update this list with future lawmakers.
Here are the likely new members of the 117th Congress:
Jerry Carl, R
District: Alabama’s 1st (Greater Mobile)
Current Member: Bradley Byrne, R, ran for Senate
Previous elected office: Mobile County Commissioner (2012-present)
Why he’s going to win: This district, which sits at the southwest corner of the state at the convergence of Mississippi, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Florida panhandle, voted for President Trump by 29 points, 63-34 percent, and for Mitt Romney by 25 points, 62-37 percent.The southwest corner of Alabama has been represented by Republicans continuously since 1965, with Democrats only occasionally standing up a nominee; last cycle, Byrne beat Democrat Robert Kennedy, Jr. (no relation…