May 25, 2017 · 9:30 AM EDT
BOZEMAN, MONTANA -- Wednesday’s unusual confrontation between Republican Greg Gianforte and a political reporter have given a boost to Democratic hopes of picking off the vacant Montana at-large House seat previously held by now-Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke. Although Democratic nominee Rob Quist has kept the race surprisingly close, Gianforte still entered the final stretch of the campaign with a slight advantage.
Nonetheless, if the state’s electoral history is any indication, Montana Democrats typically have little room for error when it comes to winning competitive statewide elections, especially for federal offices. Montanans have not sent a Democrat to the House in more than 20 years. Republicans have carried Montana in 12 of the last 13 presidential races. President Donald Trump won the state decisively in 2016. He beat Democrat Hillary Clinton by 20 percentage points and carried 50 of the state’s 56 counties.
However, Democrats have an opening in 12 Trump counties that previously went for a statewide Democratic candidate in a competitive contest at some point over the past decade. (In addition, Democratic incumbents Max Baucus and Brian Schweitzer won their 2008 Senate and gubernatorial re-election bids in 2008 by huge margins in non-competitive races.)
May 25, 2017 · 8:58 AM EDT
The numbers are daunting for Senate Democrats.
The party needs to net three seats to retake the Senate, and with only eight Republican Senate seats up in 2018 compared to 25 Democratic seats, Democratic prospects are bleak. (Two of those Democratic seats are Independents who caucus with the…
May 19, 2017 · 2:30 PM EDT
After the 2016 elections, I’ve ruled out ruling things out.
Of course not every result has an equal chance of coming true, but I think it’s OK to embrace uncertainty for a set of elections that won’t take place for another year-and-a-half. Roughly the same people who were certain Hillary Clinton…
May 19, 2017 · 2:29 PM EDT
2nd District (Martha Roby, R, re-elected in 2016 with 49%). 2016 Presidential Winner: Trump 65%. The congresswoman was re-elected with less than 50 percent last year when a conservative write-in candidate received nearly 11 percent after Roby pulled her support from Trump because of the…
May 19, 2017 · 2:28 PM EDT
2nd District (Open; Lynn Jenkins, R, not seeking re-election). Trump 56%. The combination of an open seat and a strong Democratic candidate (former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis) makes this an interesting race, even though Trump won handily. Davis lost the 2014 gubernatorial race…