Arizona Senate: Open Seat Battle

Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision not to seek re-election transforms Arizona’s upcoming election from a unique three-way contest, to a more conventional but still highly competitive race.

And a blockbuster ruling from the state Supreme Court effectively instituting a near-total ban on abortion has only multiplied the attention being paid to the swing state’s Senate race, as well as its top-tier presidential and House contests.

Senate Democrats are on defense in a half-dozen states that have trended away from the party over the past decade. But in Arizona, they are looking to keep up momentum built over the past six years, and the state court’s ruling could be a further shot in the arm heading into the general election.

Whichever candidate wins this seat will be a significant break from its current occupant, who has strived to position herself in the middle of the chamber to the frustration of many of her colleagues. A win by Democrat Ruben Gallego would bring his party one step closer to abolishing the filibuster. A win by his likely opponent, Kari Lake, would add to the growing ranks of Trump loyalists in the Senate that have little connection to leadership,

The Lay of the Land
Once a reliably Republican state at the federal level, Arizona has quickly transformed into a top-tier battleground. The harbinger was a hotly contested 3-point GOP Senate victory in 2012, followed by Donald Trump’s 3.5-point victory in the 2016 election, and then Democrats began…

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