By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
The unthinkable has happened. A resilient presidential race has shifted, but not in a way that was expected.
In the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s first debate performance and subsequent hospitalization for coronavirus, Joe Biden’s national standing has improved by a couple of points.
It hasn’t quite filtered down to the state and House level yet, but there are mostly encouraging signs for Democrats up and down the ballot. For most of the cycle, conventional wisdom said the race would tighten in the president’s favor in the final weeks.
In the presidential race, Biden continues to have the advantage in the Electoral College. Iowa and Ohio are now rated as a Toss-up. One of the biggest questions is whether Texas will join them in the final weeks.
That’s not the only good news for Biden as he strengthens his grip on other battlegrounds. Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd District move to Lean Democratic and New Hampshire moves to Likely Democratic.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to lose support in typically Republican states. He is holding mid-single digit leads in Kansas and Missouri, where he won by 21 and 19 points. Those move to Lean Republican, joining Alaska, which is a single-digit race despite Trump’s 14-point victory in 2016.
With all of the rating changes, Biden has a 319 to 163 edge with 56 electoral votes in states rated as a toss-up. For some context, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama defeated Arizona Sen. John McCain…