Senate News & Analysis

Michigan Senate: Renovating The Blue Wall

by Leah Askarinam July 19, 2019 · 2:30 PM EDT

When the so-called “Blue Wall” came tumbling down in 2016, it seemed like a new era of American politics had arrived. But the 2018 midterm results muddied the waters, leaving politicos with more questions than answers about how Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan will perform in 2020.

All three states, which…

Kentucky Senate: Seriously, Are We Doing This Again?

by Stuart Rothenberg July 18, 2019 · 2:06 PM EDT

I understand Democrats’ frustration with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, as well as their desire to send him into retirement in the 2020 elections. But once again Democrats have gotten ahead of themselves in their optimism that they can defeat the Kentucky Republican.

Six years ago, Democrats and many in…

How Many Ways is Michigan in Play in 2020?

by Stuart Rothenberg July 3, 2019 · 1:31 PM EDT

Michigan is surprisingly relevant in 2020.

The Democratic presidential nominee almost certainly has to carry the state next year to have any chance of denying President Donald Trump a second term. And Republicans are eyeing the seat of first-term Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.

Democrats must net three Senate seats next…

2020 Senate Overview (June 28, 2019): Dual of the Fates

June 28, 2019 · 2:30 PM EDT

by Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

With the growing correlation between presidential results and Senate results, the GOP majority should be fine if President Donald Trump replicates his 2016 Electoral College map, even if Republicans lose a seat or two. But if Trump slips, Senate Republicans could feel the…

2020 Senate Overview (June 28, 2019): Alabama - Kansas

June 28, 2019 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). Nov. 8 filing deadline. March 3 primary. March 31 runoff. There might be only one way Jones is elected to a full term, but that scenario could come true. Republicans in Washington are working to make sure Roy Moore, who lost the…

2020 Senate (June 28, 2019): Kentucky - New Mexico

June 28, 2019 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kentucky. Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%) and 2014 (56%). Jan. 28 filing deadline. May 19 primary. Veteran Amy McGrath is likely to challenge the majority leader. She was one of Democrats’ highest-profile House challengers in 2018, but lost to GOP Rep.…

2020 Senate Overview (June 28, 2019): North Carolina - Wyoming

June 28, 2019 · 2:27 PM EDT

North Carolina. Thom Tillis (R), elected 2014 (49%). Dec. 20 filing. March 3 primary. Tillis defeated Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in one of the closest races of the 2014 cycle and next year’s race could be headed for a similar margin. Republicans have a narrow 50-49 percent Baseline advantage. President…

Campaign Ad Spending 2020: What’s Your Number?

by Steve Passwaiter June 26, 2019 · 11:00 AM EDT

Most people in politics are intensely focused on President Donald Trump’s polling numbers in battleground states or the latest horse race numbers in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination. For those of us in the CMAG group at Kantar, it’s that time of the election cycle when everyone is…

Alabama Senate: Republicans Aim To Avoid Moore Headaches

by Leah Askarinam June 20, 2019 · 3:41 PM EDT

Republicans in Washington are working overtime to make sure Roy Moore isn’t the party’s Senate nominee again. But even though it might get uncomfortable for the GOP, Moore shouldn’t be dismissed in the primary or general elections.

Republican Richard Shelby, Alabama’s senior senator, got ahead of Moore’s Thursday Senate announcement,…

New Mexico Senate: Republicans Search For An Opening

by Leah Askarinam June 14, 2019 · 2:29 PM EDT

New Mexico may not be leading the national political discussion in 2020, but that’s not because of a lack of political activity.

As the 2020 election cycle first took shape, it seemed like a handful of states would attract the most political attention: House Democrats are targeting Arizona, Minnesota, and…