Senate News & Analysis

Vote Above Replacement: 2020 Senate Elections

January 22, 2021 · 2:28 PM EST

Democrats’ quest to take back the Senate paid off this cycle, thanks in no small part to a slate of strong candidates. The unique benefit provided by these recruits, as well as the value of other 2020 Senate contenders, can be quantified using Vote Above Replacement (VAR). And it provides…

Election Predictions Look Different (and Better) Now that All the Races are Over

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 22, 2021 · 9:09 AM EST

More than two months later, the 2020 elections are still handing out lessons. The latest: Don’t judge election projections until all the results have hatched.

Lost in the aftermath of the siege on the U.S. Capitol was the fact that Democrats won two Senate runoffs in Georgia. Not only does…

2022 Senate Overview (January 8, 2021): Control is On the Line, Again

January 8, 2021 · 2:29 PM EST

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Even before voters in Georgia cast their ballots, it was clear that the fight for the Senate would continue on to the 2022 cycle. No matter who won the runoff races, one party was going to control the chamber by a slim majority.…

2022 Senate Overview (January 8, 2021): Alabama - Georgia

January 8, 2021 · 2:28 PM EST

ALABAMA. Richard Shelby (R) elected 1986 (50%), 1992 (65%), 1998 (63%), 2004 (68%), 2010 (65%), 2016 (64%). The only real question is whether the 86-year-old senator runs for a seventh term. Shelby was first elected as a Democrat in President Ronald Reagan’s second midterm election and later switched parties the…

Georgia Senate Runoffs: How Democrats Won

by Ryan Matsumoto January 8, 2021 · 2:25 PM EST

On Tuesday, the 2020 election cycle finally came to an end with two Democratic victories in Georgia’s Senate runoffs. This gives Democrats their 49th and 50th Senate seats, giving them a trifecta with control of the House, Senate, and presidency.

Let’s take a look at some of the keys to…

Georgia Senate Runoffs: Both Sides Getting Outspent?

by Jacob Rubashkin December 30, 2020 · 9:17 AM EST

On Monday, Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff released a joint memo “sounding the alarm” that their campaigns were at risk of failure if they didn’t raise more money. The memo warned that the two candidates, whose victories would hand control of the Senate to the Democrats, were being swamped…

Why Our 2022 Ratings Aren’t Imminent

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 23, 2020 · 8:31 AM EST

We’re putting a pause on our first Senate and House ratings for the 2022 cycle, but it’s not for the reason you might be thinking. After whiffing on the House projection this year as President Donald Trump overperformed expectations, I floated the idea of forgoing race ratings in elections…

Georgia Senate Runoffs: Policy Agendas, Outside Spending, and Polls

by Jacob Rubashkin December 18, 2020 · 2:30 PM EST

On January 5, 2021, voters in Georgia will head to the polls to participate in the most consequential Senate runoffs in modern history, the outcomes of which will decide which party controls the Senate, and if the Biden administration enters with a united or divided government.

Already, more than one…

Report Shorts (December 18, 2020)

December 18, 2020 · 2:27 PM EST

California Dreamin’
Senate. Soon to be vacant due to Kamala Harris’s election as vice president.
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom will appoint a successor to Harris, and this seat was already scheduled for an election in 2022. Various constituencies are reportedly lobbying Newsom for their preferred candidates, in the hopes…

How Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Could Complicate GOP Chances in 2022

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 2, 2020 · 4:22 PM EST

After President Donald Trump boosted down-ballot Republicans in 2020, the GOP might be excited about his reported plans to avenge his loss by immediately beginning a race for the presidency in 2024. But while he delivered the White House once before and has shown a unique ability to consistently outperform…