Senate News & Analysis

North Carolina: Blue Wave Steered Clear of ‘Blue Moon’ Election

by Leah Askarinam December 14, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST

Democrats gained at least 40 House seats in races across the country, but the wave’s course veered from two key states: Ohio and North Carolina.

Looking at top-of-the-ballot results, it’s no surprise that Democrats failed to chip into Ohio’s House delegation. Democratic performance statewide indicated a fundamental problem for the…

Post-Midterms Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR) Update

by Ryan Matsumoto December 14, 2018 · 2:29 PM EST

Last month, Inside Elections revealed two of our new statistics: Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR).

Baseline captures a state or congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the last four election cycles into a single average. VAR measures the relative strength of political…

Expect Record Turnout in 2020

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 13, 2018 · 2:53 PM EST

With the 2018 elections coming to an end, it’s clear that voters set a modern record for turnout in a midterm. And there’s no reason to believe voters won’t set another record two years from now.

According to the United States Election Project, turnout this year was nearly 50 percent…

Are White Evangelicals the Saviors of the GOP?

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 12, 2018 · 3:37 PM EST

Amid all the talk about shifting demographics and political changes over the last decade, one key voting group has remained virtually unchanged: white evangelicals.

According to one evangelical leader, a record number of white evangelicals voted in the 2018 midterms after an inspired turnout effort.

“This is the most…

The 2018 Midterms as the Buffet Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 3, 2018 · 8:55 AM EST

When I was a kid in small-town Oregon, my family would occasionally go to King’s Table, and my sister and I would get free rein at the buffet.

I became famous in my own family for my condiment salad — an impressive collection of bacon bits, croutons, shredded cheese, sunflower…

Goodbye Midterm Dynamic, Hello Presidential Politics

by Stuart Rothenberg November 29, 2018 · 9:15 AM EST

Midterm elections and presidential cycles have such different dynamics that the two should almost never be discussed together. That will not prevent people from doing so, but they should resist the temptation. 

Midterms tend to be referendums on the incumbent president, while each presidential election is a choice between nominees.

Five Thoughts After the Mississippi Senate Race

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 28, 2018 · 12:46 PM EST

Even though it looks like California will be counting votes until Christmas, I’m ready to close the book on the 2018 midterm elections now that the Mississippi Senate race is over. Yes, I know there are runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana for state races, but the marquee matchups are complete.

Mississippi Senate Special: Delta Delays

by Leah Askarinam November 20, 2018 · 11:00 AM EST

Amidst the uncertainty about key Senate races in Florida, Arizona, Montana, and Nevada on Election Night, one thing was clear: the midterms would continue beyond Thanksgiving.

The delay in other key states was a result of narrow margins and recounts, but the race in Mississippi was never likely to end…

2018 Midterms Review: Back to Normal

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 20, 2018 · 10:59 AM EST

When Donald Trump was elected president of the United States there was a temptation to declare that none of the rules of politics mattered anymore. But the 2018 midterm elections proved that the fundamentals of running campaigns in this country are still intact.

In many ways, 2018 was a classic…

It’s Not Too Early to Start Looking at the 2020 Senate Map

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 14, 2018 · 8:54 AM EST

The races are still being finalized in the 2018 Senate elections, but we know the size of the incoming majority will be critical, because the 2020 Senate map offers limited initial takeover opportunities for both parties.

Of course, it’s too early to tell what the presidential race will look like,…