Senate News & Analysis

Georgia Senate Runoffs: Both Sides Getting Outspent?

by Jacob Rubashkin December 30, 2020 · 9:17 AM EST

On Monday, Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff released a joint memo “sounding the alarm” that their campaigns were at risk of failure if they didn’t raise more money. The memo warned that the two candidates, whose victories would hand control of the Senate to the Democrats, were being swamped…

Why Our 2022 Ratings Aren’t Imminent

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 23, 2020 · 8:31 AM EST

We’re putting a pause on our first Senate and House ratings for the 2022 cycle, but it’s not for the reason you might be thinking. After whiffing on the House projection this year as President Donald Trump overperformed expectations, I floated the idea of forgoing race ratings in elections…

Georgia Senate Runoffs: Policy Agendas, Outside Spending, and Polls

by Jacob Rubashkin December 18, 2020 · 2:30 PM EST

On January 5, 2021, voters in Georgia will head to the polls to participate in the most consequential Senate runoffs in modern history, the outcomes of which will decide which party controls the Senate, and if the Biden administration enters with a united or divided government.

Already, more than one…

Report Shorts (December 18, 2020)

December 18, 2020 · 2:27 PM EST

California Dreamin’
Senate. Soon to be vacant due to Kamala Harris’s election as vice president.
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom will appoint a successor to Harris, and this seat was already scheduled for an election in 2022. Various constituencies are reportedly lobbying Newsom for their preferred candidates, in the hopes…

How Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Could Complicate GOP Chances in 2022

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 2, 2020 · 4:22 PM EST

After President Donald Trump boosted down-ballot Republicans in 2020, the GOP might be excited about his reported plans to avenge his loss by immediately beginning a race for the presidency in 2024. But while he delivered the White House once before and has shown a unique ability to consistently outperform…

Georgia Senate Runoffs: Double Overtime

by Jacob Rubashkin November 19, 2020 · 2:29 PM EST

The 2020 elections aren’t over yet. Republicans will hold at least 50 seats in the new Senate, while Democrats will hold at least 48. With Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris emerging victorious in the presidential election, control of the chamber will come down to two Senate runoff elections in…

At Long Last, Senate Results

November 19, 2020 · 2:27 PM EST

Even though control of the Senate is hanging in the balance with the two runoffs in Georgia, we finally have results everywhere else. Here’s a brief summary of what happened in key Senate contests around the country.

Alabama. Tommy Tuberville (R) over Sen. Doug Jones (D) 60%-40%. GOP Takeover. Ever…

Georgia Runoff History: Why the Past May Not Be Prologue

by Jacob Rubashkin November 19, 2020 · 2:26 PM EST

On his way to becoming the first person to defeat an incumbent president since Bill Clinton in 1992, Joe Biden also replicated another one of the Arkansas governor’s feats: winning Georgia, something no Democratic presidential candidate has done in 28 years.

Along with Biden’s narrow win — confirmed by hand…

The Fight for the Senate Continues into 2022

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 19, 2020 · 8:14 AM EST

While we won't know who controls the Senate next year until after the Georgia runoffs, the battle will continue into the 2022 midterms. Similar to 2020, Republicans will start on the defensive, and Democrats are initially poised to make gains once again. But the cycle will likely be defined by…

2020 Election Preview: Bracing for History

October 28, 2020 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

No matter what happens, the 2020 elections will be historic. With impeachment, a pandemic, economic crisis, a national conversation about racism, and the death of a Supreme Court icon, this election cycle is already unforgettable, even before knowing the actual results.  

While it’s…