Senate News & Analysis

Democratic Candidates Should Be Bolder on Gun Control, Poll Finds

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 9, 2018 · 8:33 AM EDT

Gun control has been a third rail of Democratic campaigns, but a new poll suggests that Democratic candidates should embrace a bolder approach to restrictions on guns, even in general elections.

Up to this point, Democrats have been decidedly defensive on guns. The most famous instances of Democratic candidates using…

Texas Senate: Cruz to Victory?

by Leah Askarinam August 3, 2018 · 11:30 AM EDT

Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke began the cycle being dismissed as a three-term congressman running an unconventional campaign in an unwinnable race in Texas. But he’s proven to be a fundraising juggernaut and has some Democrats wondering whether he’s rewriting the playbook for winning in red states.

O’Rourke has largely focused…

Tennessee Senate: Back To The Future

by Leah Askarinam August 3, 2018 · 11:28 AM EDT

Following Hillary Clinton’s defeat, Democrats are in the midst of an identity crisis. Some are looking forward to building a racially diverse, urban-centered coalition, as the country becomes less white and more urban. But where that’s not an option, Democrats are looking back to what they hope will be the…

´╗┐Florida Senate: Keep Your Eye On The Money

by Leah Askarinam July 20, 2018 · 9:30 AM EDT

Democrats are defending Senate seats in 10 states that President Donald Trump carried in 2016. In two of those states, he won by more than 35 points. In three others, Trump won by about 20 points. Florida is one of four states that Trump carried by one percentage point or…

Brett Kavanaugh and the Midterm Effect

by Stuart Rothenberg July 16, 2018 · 9:20 AM EDT

The selection of Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court will have less of an impact on November’s midterms than you think. Sure, depending how the confirmation process develops, it’s possible the nomination could affect a handful of races, but the most likely scenario will not change the overall trajectory of…

2018 Senate Overview: SCOTUS Shake-up

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 6, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement and successor have the potential to alter the balance of the Supreme Court for years, but it’s less clear whether his decision will fundamentally change the fight for the Senate majority in November.

At a minimum, the Supreme Court vacancy reinforces the importance of the Senate…

Senate Overview (July 6, 2018): Arizona - Maine

July 6, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

ARIZONA. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. Aug. 28 primary. This is one of the only competitive Senate races where the general election matchup isn’t set yet. Rep. Martha McSally, former state Sen. Kelli Ward (who challenged John McCain in the 2016 primary), and former Maricopa County Sheriff…

Senate Overview (July 6, 2018): Maryland - Ohio

July 6, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

MARYLAND. Ben Cardin (D) elected 2006 (54%), 2012 (56%). The Old Line State saw some anti-establishment energy in the June 26 primaries when Ben Jealous captured the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, but the senator cruised to victory, 81-6 percent, over former Army spy Chelsea Manning. GOP activist Tony Campbell won the…

Senate Overview (July 6, 2018): Pennsylvania - Wyoming

July 6, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

PENNSYLVANIA. Bob Casey Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%). Trump won the state narrowly in 2016, but Casey isn’t acting particularly vulnerable and the race is on the outskirts of the discussion about the fight for the majority. Rep. Lou Barletta defeated state Rep. Jim Christiana 63-37 percent in…

Winter has Come for the Democratic Party

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 6, 2018 · 2:26 PM EDT

You can explain away 10-term Rep. Joe Crowley’s loss in the Democratic primary to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by pointing to demographic changes in the district or campaign missteps by the incumbent, but that obscures a larger trend. Similar to the dynamic in the Republican Party, the power of the Democratic establishment…