Senate News & Analysis

2018 Senate Overview (April 7, 2017) Alabama - Maine

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April 7, 2017 · 2:59 PM EDT

ALABAMA - Luther Strange (R) appointed 2017. Special Election. This seat is the latest addition to the regular class of senate seats up this cycle. GOP Sen. Jeff Sessions was confirmed as President Donald Trump’s attorney general and GOP Gov. Robert Bentley appointed state Attorney General Luther Strange to the…

2018 Senate Overview (April 7, 2017) Maryland - Ohio

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April 7, 2017 · 2:58 PM EDT

MARYLAND - Ben Cardin (D) elected 2006 (54%), 2012 (56%). Unless GOP Gov. Larry Hogan decides to challenge Cardin instead of seeking re-election (which he’s not going to do), Republicans aren’t going to win this seat. In 2016, Clinton defeated Trump 60-34 percent and Democrat Chris Van Hollen defeated Republican…

2018 Senate Overview (April 7, 2017) Oklahama - Wyoming

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April 7, 2017 · 2:57 PM EDT

PENNSYLVANIA - Bob Casey, Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%). With Trump’s 49-48 percent win over Clinton and Sen. Pat Toomey’s re-election in 2016, Republicans are feeling emboldened about their chances of defeating Casey next year. Now they just need a candidate. There was a moment when Casey’s 2012…

Reason for Democratic Optimism, But Health Care Won’t be Enough

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Nathan L. Gonzales April 7, 2017 · 2:55 PM EDT

From the women’s marches to town hall protests, Democrats were feeling emboldened about the next elections even before Republicans fumbled their attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Democratic optimism grew (as well as media comparisons to a certain previous midterm election involving health care) as polling revealed that the…

So Much for Deal Making

Stuart Rothenberg April 5, 2017 · 9:20 AM EDT

It seemed logical. But so far it hasn’t happened.

Last year, many political observers were suggesting that new political leadership in the nation’s capital could well usher in a wave of political negotiation and compromise. No, the legislative process wouldn’t suddenly become easy, but the unadulterated partisanship that had paralyzed…

New Jersey Senate: Menendez Heading to Trial and Re-Election?

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Nathan L. Gonzales March 24, 2017 · 2:29 PM EDT

It’s never good to be on trial for bribery and up for re-election at the same time, but that doesn’t mean Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez is going to lose next year in New Jersey. 

On Monday, the United States Supreme Court declined to take up the senator’s federal corruption case,…

Senate Landscape Not as Rosy for the GOP as It Once Was

Stuart Rothenberg March 22, 2017 · 9:16 AM EDT

If Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 presidential election, the GOP would now be headed to a dramatic 6-8 seat Senate gain next year, maybe even more, if history is any guide.

But with Donald Trump in the White House, Republican prospects are much less certain.

That doesn’t mean the…

Jason Kander May Have Made a Big Mistake

Nathan L. Gonzales February 22, 2017 · 9:16 AM EST

Missouri Democrat Jason Kander came close to getting elected to the Senate after he burst onto the scene last year with a memorable campaign ad and a strong challenge to GOP incumbent Roy Blunt. Now Kander is widely viewed as a rising star in the Democratic Party, but his postelection…

The GOP’s Long-Term Structural Senate Advantage

Stuart Rothenberg February 20, 2017 · 9:30 AM EST

These days, Republicans have a structural advantage in the fight for the House because of how district lines were drawn earlier in the decade. But the party’s current structural advantage in the Senate may be even more important, since it doesn’t depend on state legislators drawing favorable lines, and the…

The Senate Revolution in North Dakota Will Not Be Televised

Nathan L. Gonzales February 17, 2017 · 1:10 PM EST

Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer’s commitment to radio town halls should keep him connected to his constituents, but it could also help lay the groundwork to challenge a Democratic senator in a top-tier race.

The North Dakota congressman held the most town halls (164) among members of Congress in 2016, and…