President News & Analysis

Lesson Learned? The State of Statewide Polling

by Bradley Wascher March 25, 2020 · 8:15 AM EDT

The 2016 Democratic primary in Michigan was a wakeup call. With every recent survey of the state showing Hillary Clinton ahead by double digits, many deemed a Bernie Sanders victory out of the question — until results came in. The Vermont senator’s 23 percentage point overperformance is now considered one…

Coronavirus and the Elections: 7 Key Questions

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 17, 2020 · 8:45 AM EDT

Unfortunately, it sounds like we’re just at the beginning of what could be a multi-week or multi-month coronavirus crisis, so handicapping the pandemic’s impact on the elections is premature. But there are at least a handful of questions that will lead us to understanding the fallout, once the situation and…

Presidential Battlegrounds: Arizona

by Ryan Matsumoto March 6, 2020 · 2:28 PM EST

If the Democratic nominee won all three of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania this November, he would win back the White House (assuming no other changes to the 2016 electoral map). But if President Donald Trump were to win just one of those states, Democrats would need to make up ground…

Eight Thoughts After Charleston Debate

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 26, 2020 · 8:54 AM EST

With South Carolina and Super Tuesday looming, and the potential of a second term for President Donald Trump staring the party in the face, seven Democratic candidates didn’t miss an opportunity to attack each other during the debate in Charleston, South Carolina, on Tuesday night. But will any of it…

RIP, Election Night

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 21, 2020 · 9:40 AM EST

It’s time to retire the term “election night.”

The semi-annual national tradition of staying up a few hours past bedtime to know who will control our government is over. From close races to voting by mail to human error, it’s becoming clear that counting votes no longer fits neatly into…

Five Thoughts After the Las Vegas Democratic Debate

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 20, 2020 · 10:35 AM EST

I don’t have a bad Las Vegas-themed pun, just a few thoughts after Wednesday night’s Democratic tussle.

The sharp tone of the debate matched the high stakes. Candidacies are on the line. Aspirations are hanging in the balance. And a second term for President Donald Trump is staring the Democratic…

Presidential Battlegrounds: Pennsylvania

by Ryan Matsumoto February 7, 2020 · 2:29 PM EST

While Hillary Clinton’s campaign has often been criticized for ignoring Wisconsin and Michigan, the reality is that even if she had won those two states, she still would have lost because of Pennsylvania, where she campaigned heavily. As Democrats strategize about how they can reassemble the ‘Blue Wall’, Pennsylvania…

Was Hillary Clinton a Terrible Candidate?

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 3, 2020 · 8:45 AM EST

As much as Donald Trump was hailed by Republicans for winning the White House in 2016, Hillary Clinton and her campaign took plenty of blame from her fellow Democrats for the loss. A closer look confirms that she underperformed a typical Democrat in key states in the race for president,…

Presidential Battlegrounds: Michigan

by Ryan Matsumoto January 24, 2020 · 2:29 PM EST

Michigan was one of the biggest surprises of the 2016 presidential election, voting Republican for the first time since 1988. It was the state where President Donald Trump won by his narrowest margin - just two tenths of a percentage point (10,704 raw votes). As Democrats look to flip states…

Is Trump really the MVP of the GOP?

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 23, 2020 · 10:52 AM EST

After a tumultuous 2018 that saw them lose their House majority, Republicans often seem eager to dismiss those midterm results as typical while pining for the next election when President Donald Trump will top the ballot and drive turnout in their favor.

A closer look, however, shows Trump may not…