President News & Analysis

Presidential Battlegrounds: Pennsylvania

by Ryan Matsumoto February 7, 2020 · 2:29 PM EST

While Hillary Clinton’s campaign has often been criticized for ignoring Wisconsin and Michigan, the reality is that even if she had won those two states, she still would have lost because of Pennsylvania, where she campaigned heavily. As Democrats strategize about how they can reassemble the ‘Blue Wall’, Pennsylvania…

Was Hillary Clinton a Terrible Candidate?

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 3, 2020 · 8:45 AM EST

As much as Donald Trump was hailed by Republicans for winning the White House in 2016, Hillary Clinton and her campaign took plenty of blame from her fellow Democrats for the loss. A closer look confirms that she underperformed a typical Democrat in key states in the race for president,…

Presidential Battlegrounds: Michigan

by Ryan Matsumoto January 24, 2020 · 2:29 PM EST

Michigan was one of the biggest surprises of the 2016 presidential election, voting Republican for the first time since 1988. It was the state where President Donald Trump won by his narrowest margin - just two tenths of a percentage point (10,704 raw votes). As Democrats look to flip states…

Is Trump really the MVP of the GOP?

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 23, 2020 · 10:52 AM EST

After a tumultuous 2018 that saw them lose their House majority, Republicans often seem eager to dismiss those midterm results as typical while pining for the next election when President Donald Trump will top the ballot and drive turnout in their favor.

A closer look, however, shows Trump may not…

The Steyer Boomlet

by Stuart Rothenberg January 21, 2020 · 11:25 AM EST

Once again, there’s a new “hot” candidate. This time it’s billionaire Tom Steyer, who hit double digits in new Fox News polls in Nevada and South Carolina, thereby qualifying him for the CNN/Des Moines Register presidential debate — the last debate before the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses.

Of course, other…

Presidential Battlegrounds: Wisconsin

by Ryan Matsumoto December 19, 2019 · 2:29 PM EST

In 2016, Wisconsin was the state that arguably won President Donald Trump the election. Ranking all the states Trump carried from highest margin of victory to lowest margin of victory, Wisconsin was the “tipping-point state” that gave Trump his 270th electoral vote. As the 2020 presidential election looms on…

2019 Ad Spending Offers Clues to 2020

by Steve Passwaiter December 19, 2019 · 2:28 PM EST

Eye-popping total advertising spending numbers draw the headlines, but the distribution of that spending — looking beyond geographic targeting, and party advantage — can also reveal important insights into the campaign. In particular, where political ad buyers are putting their money can tell us a lot about not only their…

Impeachment’s No ‘Game Changer’ and Other Pet Peeves

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 17, 2019 · 3:59 PM EST

After weeks of public hearings and the eve of a vote, I’m ready to take a stand on impeachment. Well, not quite. Actually, there are more than a few pieces of the impeachment coverage, arguments, and narrative that are driving me crazy. And writing a few hundred words seems like…

Don’t Forget Arizona and Minnesota in Presidential Contest

by Stuart Rothenberg December 6, 2019 · 2:28 PM EST

Arizona has voted Democratic in only one of the last 17 presidential elections going back to 1952. That was in 1996, when President Bill Clinton won re-election in a three-way race. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been a Democratic bedrock, with Democratic presidential nominees carrying the state in each…

Mostly Smoke, and Little Fire, From Republicans to Democrats on Impeachment

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 11, 2019 · 9:13 AM EDT

Republicans are publicly celebrating impeachment as a political boon and trying to hold House Democrats’ feet to the fire with television ads and protests. But without credible challengers, it’s little more than expensive hot air.

Last week, President Donald Trump’s campaign manager bragged about turning up the heat on a…