President News & Analysis

Trump Missing an Opportunity on Guns

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 26, 2019 · 8:55 AM EDT

President Donald Trump has forgotten who holds the power within the Republican Party.

There’s a perception that the National Rifle Association has an impenetrable lock on base Republican voters and thus is holding GOP members of Congress captive. But Trump is the one person who has the capital with the…

How Third-Party Votes Sunk Clinton, What They Mean for Trump

by Stuart Rothenberg August 15, 2019 · 9:08 AM EDT

For all the talk about why Donald Trump was elected president while losing the popular vote and how he could win again, one of the least discussed results of the 2016 election offers valuable lessons for Democrats.

An astounding 7.8 million voters cast their presidential ballots for someone other than…

When Trump Attacks, the Base Turns Out — For Both Parties

by Stuart Rothenberg July 25, 2019 · 9:09 AM EDT

President Donald Trump’s attacks on the four Democratic congresswomen, known collectively as “the squad,” appear to be a strange way to try to win reelection.

There is no doubt that Trump needs to motivate his base to win a second term, and his tweets and comments about immigrants and “socialism”…

What We Can Learn from the 2004 Presidential Race

by Stuart Rothenberg July 12, 2019 · 1:59 PM EDT

Beware of reading too much into presidential polls. Take, for example, the 2004 race.

An August 2003 CNN/USA Today/Gallup national survey found Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic nominee for vice president, leading the party’s presidential field with 23 percent. He was trailed by former House Majority (and Minority)…

Campaign Ad Spending 2020: What’s Your Number?

by Steve Passwaiter June 26, 2019 · 11:00 AM EDT

Most people in politics are intensely focused on President Donald Trump’s polling numbers in battleground states or the latest horse race numbers in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination. For those of us in the CMAG group at Kantar, it’s that time of the election cycle when everyone is…

Rothenberg: The 2020 Presidential Race is Still Tilting Democratic

by Stuart Rothenberg June 21, 2019 · 8:06 AM EDT

There has been plenty of attention recently on economic models that show President Donald Trump holding a huge advantage in the 2020 presidential contest. But it’s not that simple. 

Like alchemists hunting for the secret recipe that transmutes lead into gold, media personalities, political junkies and veteran analysts seem bewitched…

Upcoming Debates an Important Next Stage in Presidential Campaign

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 14, 2019 · 8:30 AM EDT

In less than two weeks, 20 candidates will take the debate stage in their quest for the Democratic presidential nomination. And with increasing pressure to distinguish themselves from the rest of the pack, some contenders could choose to take the gloves off and attack an opponent, which would have a…

Why a GOP Super PAC is Bothering to Attack Steve Bullock’s Bid for President

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 7, 2019 · 3:44 PM EDT

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock isn’t one of the leading Democratic contenders for the 2020 presidential nomination, but he’s learning how to turn a Republican attack into an asset for his campaign.

On May 29, the GOP-affiliated Senate Leadership Fund started a television ad campaign in the Missoula media market, according…

Oval Office Obsessions From a Crew With Little Experience, Much Ambition

by Stuart Rothenberg May 24, 2019 · 11:44 AM EDT

In the 1960 Democratic presidential race, there were a handful of contenders, including Sens. John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts, Lyndon B. Johnson of Texas, Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota and Stuart Symington of Missouri. Others, including Florida Sen. George Smathers and California Gov. Pat Brown, ran as “favorite sons.”

The 1968…

Biden, Unions and the Politics of 2020

by Stuart Rothenberg May 16, 2019 · 2:32 PM EDT

Shortly after former Vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, he received his first union endorsement. “I couldn’t be more proud to have the International Association of Fire Fighters on my team,” Biden tweeted in response. “Unions built the middle class in this country…