Presidential: Biden’s Exit Steers Election Into Uncharted Waters
July 21, 2024 · 4:47 PM EDT
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
Unthinkable even a month ago, President Joe Biden’s decision to decline the Democratic nomination upends the 2024 election 106 days before Election Day.
Biden’s exit comes after an agonizing three weeks following his dismal debate performance against former President Donald Trump, and at a moment when much seems to be going wrong for Democrats. Not only did Biden trail Trump in general election polling in nearly all key swing states, but his poor performance was making life more difficult for House and Senate Democratic candidates, who were relying on historic levels of ticket-splitting to outpace their GOP opponents.
While the path to a majority in the House was still clear for Democrats, it had become more difficult. And the path to maintaining a majority in the Senate had become exceedingly narrow with the prospect of Vice President J.D. Vance being able to break tie votes in a 50-50 chamber.
Even with such a significant change in the race, it’s healthy to listen to our own advice and remember the worst time to analyze the political fallout from an event is during it or in the immediate aftermath. That’s where we are now. But it’s OK to make some educated guesses on how it changes the electoral equation.
Presidential Race
National polling showing Biden trailing Trump by just a few points masked Biden’s poor numbers in state and district level polling. That is part of what caused Democrats to pull the fire alarm on his candidacy. But Biden’s mediocre standing in head-to-head matchups was fueled by his inability to consolidate Democratic voters. Democratic voters were either declining to support Biden or supporting a third party candidate such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
While it’s technically possible for delegates to nominate another candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris has already secured Biden’s endorsement and an increasing number of elected officials. It’s hard to see how a currently unannounced candidate can secure the support necessary in a very short amount of time.
Harris is not a perfect candidate, but she will likely be able to reassemble much of the Democratic coalition and energize a Democratic base that was becoming demoralized. An excited Democratic base certainly doesn’t guarantee victory, but it can help prevent a Republican wave.
Both parties need an energized base and sway independent voters in order to sway. Biden’s decision to step aside helps Democrats solve the first problem.
Harris has flaws that will be examined, but she shifts the generational matchup and conversation. Now Trump, 78, will be the oldest candidate in the race (and in American history) against the 59-year-old vice president. For voters who said they were concerned about the age of the candidates or apathetic about the 2020 rematch between two familiar and unpopular foes, Democrats will now have an alternative that checks those boxes, which could be key in persuading independent voters.
Biden’s numbers had reached such a low point that it’s hard to see Harris, assuming she becomes the nominee, doing worse than the sitting president. That being said, Harris will have to demonstrate her ability on a larger stage and it’s hard to account for sexism and racism Biden wasn’t subjected to, and no candidate has faced at one time.
Democrats have work to do, and Trump has the advantage until proven otherwise, but Biden’s decision should pull them back to a close and competitive race, typical for an evenly-divided country. We didn’t change our ratings toward Trump in the wake of the debate and will hold our ratings in place for now until surveys over the next couple weeks show how voter sentiment may have changed.
Senate and House Races
In general, Biden’s decision gives Democrats a glimmer of hope at a time when optimism was fleeting.
Senate Democrats, including Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, and Jacky Rosen in Nevada were already running well ahead of Biden in the most crucial battlegrounds, so they might be the least affected by a change at the top of the ticket. But they were still at risk of political gravity dragging them down based on the deep hole Biden was digging. A presumably stronger presidential nominee will decrease the number of split ticket voters they need in order to win re-election.
The bigger beneficiaries in the Senate could be the open-seat Democrats in swing states such as Elissa Slotkin in Michigan and Ruben Gallego of Arizona, who don’t have statewide brands to help overperform the top of the ticket. If Harris can keep those states competitive, Democrats have a better chance to hold them. Maryland is still a unique situation where Angela Alsobrooks has to convince Democratic voters who have voted for former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan in the past to vote for her to keep Democratic control of the Senate.
The Senate math is still good for Republicans because they’re already set to gain the seat in West Virginia. But if the newly-formed presidential race is more competitive, then Democrats have an outside shot to hold their remaining seats and maintain control with a White House victory. The most likely outcome is still a GOP gain of 1-3 seats.
In the House, where races are often closely tied to the presidential outcome, Biden’s decision likely has a greater impact than the Senate. If Harris can get close to Biden’s 2020 performance, then Democrats are in the conversation to control the House. If not, then Republicans are likely to maintain or even grow their majority.
While it’s good to start laying out the potential consequences for Biden’s decision and Democrats’ strategy, anyone declaring they know exactly how this historic event impacts the election and various tiers of races is being disingenuous. There’s no historical analogue to the current situation and it’s OK to wait at least a couple weeks for survey data to test everyone’s assumptions about the fallout.