The Political Calculations and Consequences of Harris’s Vice Presidential Considerations
July 24, 2024 · 11:59 AM EDT
As Vice President Kamala Harris locks down support as the new Democratic presidential nominee, her next big decision will be to select a running mate to help her take on former President Donald Trump and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.
Harris’s pick will be her first major decision as her party’s standard-bearer, and it’s one she has to make on a more condensed schedule than nominees typically do; Harris has at most four weeks to vet, interview and select a partner before the Democratic convention begins on August 19 in Chicago. In comparison, Trump had 18 weeks from the day he became the presumptive nominee until the day he announced Vance. Since 1980, major party contenders have enjoyed an average of 18 weeks from the day they became the presumptive nominee to the day they announced their vice presidential pick, according to a review by Inside Elections.
While the veep selection process is opaque and highly dependent on the top of the ticket, Harris may have to make two different calculations as she settles on a running mate. Firstly, how does her pick impact the ticket’s chances of winning an uphill race against Trump? And secondly, what are the political consequences if the ticket wins?
Just a few politicians have dominated the vice presidential conversation since President Joe Biden announced he would not seek re-election. Here’s an overview of what each might bring to the ticket, and what would happen if they won.
Roy Cooper
The 67-year-old North Carolinian is in his second term as governor, and is close to the Vice President. He and Harris served together as attorneys general from 2010 to 2016 and she has campaigned with him twice in the past month.
Cooper checks some boxes. He’s from a battleground state and has a proven electoral track record: four wins as attorney general and two as governor while other Democrats have struggled to get past the finish line. In 2016 and 2020, he carried the state even as Trump also won at the top of the ticket.
And Cooper is an older white man from the South, which provides some demographic and geographic balance to the barrier-breaking Californian.
He’s also in the final months of his term, so if he’s elected vice president there’s no consequence for his current position. The race to replace him is a toss-up between Democrat Josh Stein, the state attorney general, and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. If Harris picks Cooper and the ticket performs better as a result, that could be a boost to Stein, but any advantage would probably be minimal in such an evenly divided and inelastic state.
One complicating factor is a state law that says that the lieutenant governor takes over as acting governor whenever the sitting governor is traveling out of the state. With Cooper out on the campaign trail, that would leave Robinson in charge — a prospect Democrats might find frightening. Two years ago in Idaho, Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin took advantage of a similar law to undo actions taken by Gov. Brad Little — and those two were in the same party. But at least one senior North Carolina Democrat threw cold water on the notion, pointing out that Cooper had left the state and country multiple times and the most Robinson has done is hold press conferences and make declarations.
Mark Kelly
Kelly is coming off of back-to-back Senate campaigns in Arizona. He would bring a compelling backstory and a top-tier fundraising network to the Harris ticket, as well as some strength in the swing state he calls home. The 60-year-old former astronaut, former Navy pilot, and husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords has an inspirational biography and is one of his party’s best fundraisers — he pulled in $190 million for his Senate bids in 2020 and 2022.
A strong Harris-Kelly performance in Arizona could help Rep. Ruben Gallego in his Senate race against Republican Kari Lake, for the seat being left behind by former Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. But some labor groups are already raising concerns about his lack of support for the pro-union PRO Act (he was one of three Democrats not to back the bill).
If elected vice president, Kelly’s replacement would be named by Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. That would, however, trigger a Senate special election in 2026, meaning Arizona will have hosted (and be hosting) a Senate race every cycle from 2016 through 2030. But Democrats have no chance of holding control of the Senate this year if they lose the presidential race.
Josh Shapiro
Like several other contenders on this list, Shapiro is a former state attorney general now serving as governor. He won a landslide win over an underfunded opponent in 2022 and could boost Harris in Pennsylvania, a must-win state for the Democratic ticket. Shapiro outperformed the Democratic nominee for president in both of his attorney general elections, in 2016 and 2020.
He might ruffle feathers on the left wing of the party, though, when it comes to his past support for charter schools and his support for Israel. But a few more moderate positions could make him more attractive in a general election.
If Shapiro is elected vice president, his lieutenant governor, Democrat Austin Davis, would assume the top spot until 2026. But Davis’s job would be filled by a Republican, state Sen. Kim Ward, under the state constitution. Ward would preside over the state Senate and have the power to break ties (Republicans currently have a 28-22 seat majority).
Andy Beshear
Beshear, 46, just won a second and final term as Kentucky governor in 2023. He’s the last Democrat to hold statewide office in Bluegrass State, and has a demonstrated record of appealing to Republican voters while still promoting progressive policies. While gubernatorial races are entirely different beasts from federal contests, that political acumen doesn’t hurt. Neither does his Appalachian twang, penchant for quoting Bible verses, and his eagerness to take on Vance over his depiction of Kentucky in his Hillbilly Elegy memoir.
If Beshear is elected, Democratic Lt. Gov Jacqueline Coleman would ascend to the governorship until the 2027 election. That might be a net positive for Kentucky Democrats, who face an uphill battle regardless and might as well get to run with an incumbent.
Tim Walz
The affable two-term Minnesota governor is a dark horse veep pick. On paper, he makes a lot of sense. He’s a 60-year-old former schoolteacher and Army National Guard veteran who held down a swingy House district for six terms before winning two terms as governor in the light blue Midwestern state. Most recently, he’s pushed through a raft of progressive policies following Democrats’ state legislative victories in the 2022 midterm elections, and he’s shown a willingness to go after Vance on TV.
And if he were selected and won, his lieutenant governor, Peggy Flanagan, would make history as the first Native American woman to lead a state.
Gretchen Whitmer
While Whitmer, 52, told local news outlets she was “staying in Michigan,” she’s also a possibility for the number-two spot. She’s popular in the Wolverine State, which is an integral state in Harris’s path to victory. And a strong Harris-Whitmer performance could also boost Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin in a must-win Senate race down ballot.
If Whitmer were selected and won, Democrats would retain control of the state: Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist would fill out the remainder of her term.