House News & Analysis

A Few Moves on the Eve of the Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 5, 2018 · 10:46 AM EST

On the eve of Election Day 2018, the battleground is largely set, but GOP prospects have dimmed in at least one suburban seat and couple Democratic longshots should be taken more seriously 

The addition of Alaska’s At-Large District and South Carolina’s 1st District brings the total number of vulnerable Republican…

2018 Election Preview: Embrace the Uncertainty

November 1, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

Two years is long enough to forget how crazy the last week of the elections is. From rumors of surprise races to breaking news events with unknown political consequences, each cycle often includes a fast and furious finish.

In the midst of uncertainty…

House Report Shorts (Nov. 1, 2018)

November 1, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

Please refer to the Oct. 26 issue for summaries of every competitive House race on our ratings chart. The following are districts with news, analysis, or polling within the last week. 


California’s 10th District (Jeff Denham, R, re-elected 52%). Clinton 49%. There’s some still some conflicting data…

Introducing Inside Elections Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR)

November 1, 2018 · 2:26 PM EDT

By Ryan Matsumoto

Inside Elections’ new statistic, which we’re calling Baseline, captures a clear picture of a congressional district or state’s political performance by accounting for all federal and state executive election results.

Baseline is defined as the trimmed mean of each party’s performance in partisan, contested statewide elections. It…

For Handicapping Midterm Races, Old Rules May No Longer Apply

by Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2018 · 7:15 AM EDT

Political handicapping is more than looking at polls and regurgitating who is ahead. Throughout an election cycle, there are signs political handicappers use to understand what is happening at a given moment and to project how races will play out in the weeks or months ahead.

During the endgame, one…

2018 Election Preview: Midterms’ Mixed Messages

October 26, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

After two years of prognostication, election results are supposed to bring clarity. But the 2018 results are poised to be a mixed bag, making it difficult to land on a single narrative. 

With President Donald Trump’s mediocre job approval rating nationally, the Senate…

House Report Shorts (Oct. 26, 2018)

October 26, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona’s 1st District (Tom O’Halleran, D, elected 51%). Trump 48%. Air Force veteran Wendy Rogers is running a serious campaign, won a competitive primary, and has no problem tying herself to the President. But her fundraising has been modest and Rogers hasn’t received much outside help against the incumbent. Lean…

Candidate Conversation - Todd Litton (D)

October 26, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

Texas’ 2nd District — Rating: Solid Republican

Interview Date: July 26, 2018

Date of Birth: July 21, 1970; Houston, Texas

Education: Duke (1992 B.A.), Univ. of Texas Law School (1995 JD), Rice Business School (2001 MBA)

Elected Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: Some Democrats believed the 2nd…

House Midterm Outlook: Look for a Democratic Flip

by Stuart Rothenberg October 25, 2018 · 5:15 PM EDT

Are we still headed for a Democratic wave in the House next month? That all depends on how you define a wave. But one thing is clear: Democrats are still likely to flip the chamber even after all the buzz about a post-Kavanaugh Republican bounce.

A wave occurs when a…

Stop Calling 2018 ‘The Year Of The Woman’

by Leah Askarinam October 15, 2018 · 11:30 AM EDT

Declaring 2018 anything but the Year of the Woman is heresy by now. It’s consistently, casually mentioned as a matter of fact. This year‘s regarded as a natural succession to 1992, which was the last time an election resulted in the number of women in the House…