House News & Analysis

Why Our 2022 Ratings Aren’t Imminent

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 23, 2020 · 8:31 AM EST

We’re putting a pause on our first Senate and House ratings for the 2022 cycle, but it’s not for the reason you might be thinking. After whiffing on the House projection this year as President Donald Trump overperformed expectations, I floated the idea of forgoing race ratings in elections…

Report Shorts (December 18, 2020)

December 18, 2020 · 2:27 PM EST

California Dreamin’
Senate. Soon to be vacant due to Kamala Harris’s election as vice president.
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom will appoint a successor to Harris, and this seat was already scheduled for an election in 2022. Various constituencies are reportedly lobbying Newsom for their preferred candidates, in the hopes…

31,751 Votes: How Close Races Decide the Battle for the House

by Jacob Rubashkin December 17, 2020 · 1:53 PM EST

More than 158 million voters cast ballots in the November election. And while Joe Biden won the Electoral College (by a margin Republicans called a landslide four years ago) and Democrats maintained control of the House, the emerging narrative is one of Republican resurgence and resilience…

What Makes a Race Competitive?

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 16, 2020 · 2:46 PM EST

What defines a competitive race and who deems it so? 

In the final months of the campaign, Oregon’s 4th District was home to one of hottest races in the country. Republicans and Democrats poured millions of dollars into the contest between Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio and Republican Alek Skarlatos, which…

Louisiana 2 Special: Brawl on the Blue Bayou

by Jacob Rubashkin December 3, 2020 · 2:29 PM EST

Read an update on the special election in Louisiana's 2nd District here.

President-elect Joe Biden’s decision to bring Democratic Rep. Cedric Richmond with him to the White House as a senior adviser sets up what is likely to be the first special election of 2021.

With Democrats’…

How Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Could Complicate GOP Chances in 2022

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 2, 2020 · 4:22 PM EST

After President Donald Trump boosted down-ballot Republicans in 2020, the GOP might be excited about his reported plans to avenge his loss by immediately beginning a race for the presidency in 2024. But while he delivered the White House once before and has shown a unique ability to consistently outperform…

2020 Election Preview: Bracing for History

October 28, 2020 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

No matter what happens, the 2020 elections will be historic. With impeachment, a pandemic, economic crisis, a national conversation about racism, and the death of a Supreme Court icon, this election cycle is already unforgettable, even before knowing the actual results.  

While it’s…

House Report Shorts (October 28, 2020): Alaska - New Mexico

October 28, 2020 · 2:28 PM EDT

At-Large District Don Young, R, re-elected 53%. Trump 51%. Independent Alyse Galvin is still running at least a few points behind the long-time congressman. The good news for Democrats is that Trump is on pace to win Alaska by far less than his 14-point victory in 2016. This…

House Report Shorts (October 28, 2020): New York - Wisconsin

October 28, 2020 · 2:27 PM EDT

New York.
1st District (Eastern Suffolk County) Lee Zeldin, R, re-elected 52%.
Trump 55%. Republicans had long maintained that Democrat Nancy Goroff was a poor fit for this district, but fit may not matter as much in a nationalized election with an unpopular president. Despite Trump winning here by…

House Report Shorts (October 16, 2020)

October 16, 2020 · 2:28 PM EDT

6th District (Scottsdale and North Phoenix) Dave Schweikert, R, re-elected 55%.
Trump 52%. Strong performances at the top of the ticket from Joe Biden and Mark Kelly, the ongoing leftward shifts of educated, wealthy suburbs like the ones that make up this district, and Schweikert’s myriad of ethics…