House News & Analysis
It’s no secret that Republicans are headed for difficult midterm elections this fall, particularly in the House. It could be tough for GOP incumbents and candidates to generate enthusiasm among Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters when the President is not on the ballot. But the lack of competitive statewide races…
Primaries can be a painful winnowing process for political parties, but they help set the stage for significant general election races in the fall. And unlike Texas, Illinois doesn’t have a runoff provision, so we know the general election match-ups in key contests that will help decide the House majority.
Long-time Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter died March 16, setting up a potential special election in New York’s 25th District.
The Rochester-based district is rated Solid Democratic, considering Hillary Clinton carried it by 16 points in 2016, while President Barack Obama did so by 19 points in both 2008 and…
Candidate for California’s 49th District - Rating: Toss-up
Interview Date: Feb. 7, 2018
Date of Birth: June 20, 1951; Billiot, Ill.
Education: Univ. of California-Irvine (1992)
Elected Office: State Board of Equalization, 4th District (2014-present); State Assembly (former 2008-14)
Current Outlook: Rep. Darrell Issa’s departure from this Orange County/San Diego…
Idaho’s 1st - Rating: Solid Republican
Interview Date: Feb. 27, 2018
Date of Birth: March 9, 1962; Meridian, Idaho
Education: Boise State Univ. (Bachelor’s 1984, MBA 1988)
Elected Office: Iowa State Senate (first elected 2005)
Current Outlook: Fulcher switched from the gubernatorial race to this race when 1st District Rep.…
Ohio’s 12th District Special Election - Rating: Likely Republican
Interview Date: March 5, 2018
Date of Birth: March 10, 1959; Louisa, Ky.
Education: Franklin Univ. (2000)
Elected Office: Franklin County Sheriff (appointed 2011, elected 2012)
Current Outlook: Scott is a credible contender for the Democratic nomination for the vacant seat…
Candidate for California’s 39th District - Rating: Toss-up
Interview Date: Feb. 7, 2018
Date of Birth: Oct. 18, 1962; Seoul, South Korea
Education: Univ. of Southern California (1985)
Elected Office: California State Assembly (former, 2014-15)
Current Outlook: GOP Rep. Ed Royce’s retirement made Republicans’ hold on a district Hillary Clinton…
Seven and a half months before the midterm elections, the combination of attitudinal and behavioral evidence leads to a single conclusion: The Democrats are very likely to win control of the House in November.
Just as important, Republican and Democratic campaign strategists also agree that an electoral wave has already…
The Illinois primaries are in the books, setting the stage for an important set of congressional elections in November. https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/illinois-general-election-match-ups-set-november
Assuming Democrat Conor Lamb is certified as the winner of the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District, Democrats still need a net gain of 23 seats to win the…
The results in the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District confirm problems for Republicans.
The size of the Democratic general election wave is still unclear, but something is happening. Districts won comfortably by President Donald Trump in 2016 are more competitive now, which suggests that districts won by Hillary Clinton…