House News & Analysis

Top of the Ticket Woes Could Lead to Downballot Debacle

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

It’s no secret that Republicans are headed for difficult midterm elections this fall, particularly in the House. It could be tough for GOP incumbents and candidates to generate enthusiasm among Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters when the President is not on the ballot. But the lack of competitive statewide races…

Illinois Primaries: Opportunities in the Land of Lincoln

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

Primaries can be a painful winnowing process for political parties, but they help set the stage for significant general election races in the fall. And unlike Texas, Illinois doesn’t have a runoff provision, so we know the general election match-ups in key contests that will help decide the House majority.  

New York 25: Special Election Possible After Slaughter’s Death

March 23, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

Long-time Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter died March 16, setting up a potential special election in New York’s 25th District. 

The Rochester-based district is rated Solid Democratic, considering Hillary Clinton carried it by 16 points in 2016, while President Barack Obama did so by 19 points in both 2008 and…

Candidate Conversation - Diane Harkey (R)

March 23, 2018 · 2:25 PM EDT

Candidate for California’s 49th District - Rating: Toss-up

Interview Date: Feb. 7, 2018

Date of Birth: June 20, 1951; Billiot, Ill. 

Education: Univ. of California-Irvine (1992)

Elected Office: State Board of Equalization, 4th District (2014-present); State Assembly (former 2008-14) 

Current Outlook: Rep. Darrell Issa’s departure from this Orange County/San Diego…

Candidate Conversation - Russ Fulcher (R)

March 23, 2018 · 2:24 PM EDT

Idaho’s 1st - Rating: Solid Republican

Interview Date: Feb. 27, 2018

Date of Birth: March 9, 1962; Meridian, Idaho 

Education: Boise State Univ. (Bachelor’s 1984, MBA 1988)

Elected Office: Iowa State Senate (first elected 2005)

Current Outlook: Fulcher switched from the gubernatorial race to this race when 1st District Rep.…

Candidate Conversation - Zach Scott (D)

March 23, 2018 · 2:23 PM EDT

Ohio’s 12th District Special Election - Rating: Likely Republican

Interview Date: March 5, 2018

Date of Birth: March 10, 1959; Louisa, Ky.

Education: Franklin Univ. (2000)

Elected Office: Franklin County Sheriff (appointed 2011, elected 2012)

Current Outlook: Scott is a credible contender for the Democratic nomination for the vacant seat…

Candidate Conversation -  Young Kim (R)

March 23, 2018 · 2:22 PM EDT

Candidate for California’s 39th District - Rating: Toss-up

Interview Date: Feb. 7, 2018

Date of Birth: Oct. 18, 1962; Seoul, South Korea

Education: Univ. of Southern California (1985)

Elected Office: California State Assembly (former, 2014-15)

Current Outlook: GOP Rep. Ed Royce’s retirement made Republicans’ hold on a district Hillary Clinton…

Insiders See Democratic House Gains of 30-45 seats

by Stuart Rothenberg March 22, 2018 · 3:15 PM EDT

Seven and a half months before the midterm elections, the combination of attitudinal and behavioral evidence leads to a single conclusion: The Democrats are very likely to win control of the House in November.

Just as important, Republican and Democratic campaign strategists also agree that an electoral wave has already…

Illinois Primaries: Ratings Changes in Two Races

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 21, 2018 · 9:30 AM EDT

The Illinois primaries are in the books, setting the stage for an important set of congressional elections in November. https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/illinois-general-election-match-ups-set-november ;

Assuming Democrat Conor Lamb is certified as the winner of the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District, Democrats still need a net gain of 23 seats to win the…

Pennsylvania 18: A Red Flag for the GOP

by Stuart Rothenberg March 16, 2018 · 9:07 AM EDT

The results in the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District confirm problems for Republicans.

The size of the Democratic general election wave is still unclear, but something is happening. Districts won comfortably by President Donald Trump in 2016 are more competitive now, which suggests that districts won by Hillary Clinton…