Oregon 5 Poll: Chavez-DeRemer in the Hot Seat
September 4, 2024 · 9:30 AM EDT
GOP Rep. Laurie Chavez-DeRemer enters the fall trailing a familiar Democratic opponent narrowly, according to new polling of Oregon’s 5th District from Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.
When Chavez-DeRemer flipped the Democratic-held seat in 2022, she did so as the favorite, taking advantage of a fractured Democratic Party and progressive nominee. She led in public and private polling for the last six weeks of the race.
But in an Aug. 26-28 NPI/Inside Elections survey, fielded entirely after the Democratic National Convention, Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum led Chavez-DeRemer by 2 points, 41-39 percent, within the poll’s 4.8 percent margin of error. Independent candidate Andrew Aasen took 1 percent and 19 percent were undecided. In a head-to-head matchup, Bynum led Chavez-Deremer by 1 point, 43-42 percent.
The district is rated as a toss-up by Inside Elections.
The Lay of the Land
The 5th District encompasses the suburbs southeast of Portland, part of the Willamette Valley, and even crosses the Cascades to pick up Bend and the beginnings of the High Desert in Central Oregon
The district is predominantly non-Hispanic white (79 percent) with a sizable Hispanic population (11 percent) and a smaller Asian-American population (3 percent). Just under 40 percent of residents have a four-year college degree.
Politically, the district is diverse: deep blue around Portland, bright red in rural Marion and Linn counties, and purple in Clackamas and Deschutes counties.
In 2020, Joe Biden would have carried the district by 9 points, 53-44 percent. In 2022, Chavez-DeRemer won by 2 points, 51-49 percent, while GOP gubernatorial nominee Christine Drazan carried the seat by 5 points, 47-43 percent (independent Betsy Johnson took the balance).
The House Election
The contest between Chavez-DeRemer and Bynum is set to be one of the most expensive races on the House battlefield.
Democrats believe that a lack of outside investment in 2022 doomed progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner to her narrow loss against Chavez-DeRemer and are determined not to repeat their mistakes. Party leaders intervened in the Democratic primary to ensure that McLeod-Skinner did not win the nomination again, and are set to invest heavily in the race over the next two months.
The four major outside groups — the DCCC and House Majority PAC on the Democrats’ side, and the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund on the GOP side — have parked $28 million in TV ad time in the Portland media market for the fall. While some of that is likely to go to Washington’s 3rd District, it also signals a heavy interest in Oregon’s 5th.
Bynum and Chavez-DeRemer have faced off in two previous elections for state House, with Bynum emerging victorious in both. But the Republican’s time in Congress has given her greater visibility across the district: 39 percent of voters view her favorably compared to 30 percent unfavorably. Just half of voters have an opinion of Bynum, with 28 percent seeing her favorably and 20 percent unfavorably.
The Presidential Election
Vice President Kamala Harris led former President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket in the poll. In a head-to-head matchup, Harris was ahead by 8 points, 50-42 percent. When presented with Green Party nominee Jill Stein and independent Cornel West as options, voters still broke for Harris, 47-42 percent, with 2 percent going to Stein and West each.
(Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. was not included as an option after he suspended his campaign two weeks ago, but after the poll entered the field, supporters of his nominated him in Oregon on the “We the People” line, meaning he will be on the ballot.)
Neither Harris nor Trump are popular in the district. Harris is viewed favorably by 47 percent of voters and unfavorably by 51 percent, while Trump is viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 55 percent. Harris is significantly more popular than Biden, whose image rating is 41 percent favorable, 55 percent unfavorable.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic nominee for vice president, has a positive image rating of 46 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable. Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance is much less well received at 39 percent favorable and 51 percent unfavorable.
The Odds and Ends
Voters in the 5th District expressed support for abortion access, with 44 percent of voters saying abortion should be legal in all circumstances. Another 46 percent said abortion should be legal under certain circumstances — of those voters, significant majorities supported legality for the life of the mother (93 percent), rape (72 percent), and incest (71 percent). 50 percent of that group agreed abortion should be legal “when the baby/fetus is likely to have severe disabilities or health problems.”
Oregon currently has no restrictions on abortion access.
Voters in the 5th District also expressed ambivalence on a ballot measure to move Oregon to a ranked-choice voting system beginning in 2028. Just 33 percent of voters expressed support for the measure, while 36 percent opposed it.
And while Democrats may no longer be saddled with the most unpopular governor in the country at the top of the ticket in Kate Brown, her successor, Democrat Tina Kotek, is also unpopular, with just 39 percent of voters viewing her favorably while 51 percent view her unfavorably.
This poll was conducted via text-to-online and live caller. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from August 26-28, 2024. NPI contacted a random sample of registered voters in Oregon’s 5th district using the voter file and determined likely voters via screening questions. The sample size was 419 likely general election voters. The sample was weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, county, education, and party to reflect the projected 2024 electorate. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. The margin of error was +/- 4.8%. Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error. Full crosstabs are available here.