House News & Analysis

Podcast Episode 14: Iowa Caucus Results, Delegate Counting w/ Leah Askarinam

January 18, 2024 · 11:34 AM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Leah Askarinam of 538 and the Associated Press discuss the Iowa caucus results and the intricacies of counting delegates in the presidential nominating process.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential…

New York 3 Special: Nassau County Clash

by Jacob Rubashkin January 11, 2024 · 2:30 PM EST

The antics and alleged crimes of George Santos have put a spotlight on New York’s 3rd District for over a year. But the lights are brighter than ever now that Santos has been expelled and the 3rd District is up for grabs in the first competitive House special election of…

Ohio 6 Special: GOP Fight in Formerly Blue Territory

by Jacob Rubashkin January 11, 2024 · 2:29 PM EST

Serving in Congress is so bad that one member would rather be a college president than finish out the remainder of his term. 

Republican Bill Johnson will exit Congress on Jan. 21 to take a job as president of Youngstown State University, triggering a special election in the Ohio River…

Vote Above Replacement: 2022 House Elections

by Bradley Wascher January 10, 2024 · 10:50 AM EST

Judging candidate performance is often a subjective and imprecise game.

Sure, you can clearly tell when a diamond is a diamond or a dud is a dud, but outside of these obvious outliers, the labels “strong” and “weak” have different definitions depending on who you ask. Particularly for House races,…

Podcast Episode 13: New York 3 Special, Iowa Caucus w/ Marianne LeVine

January 5, 2024 · 9:17 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Marianne LeVine of the Washington Post discuss the special election to replace George Santos in New York’s 3rd District and the upcoming Republican caucuses in Iowa, with a side of movie reviews. 

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts…

New Year, New House Ratings

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 3, 2024 · 4:39 PM EST

Sometimes overshadowed by the fights for the White House and Senate, the House majority is on the line in 2024 as well. With Republicans defending a narrow majority, changes in individual races can have a considerable impact on the fight for control. 

Looking at the races individually shows Republicans still…

Podcast Episode 12: Baseline, Evenly-Divided Districts, Memorable Holiday Gifts

December 21, 2023 · 11:01 AM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Bradley Wascher discuss Inside Elections’ Baseline metric, which measures the partisan performance of every district and every state. They also dive into some of the most evenly-divided districts in the country and talk about their favorite holiday gift memories.

Listen to the podcast…

2024 House Overview: New York, New Majority?

December 15, 2023 · 2:30 PM EST

By Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Erin Covey

Start spreading the news: New York is about to be the epicenter of the fight for the House, with a special election competing with the Republican presidential race for center stage early next year.

The Long Island-based 3rd District is vacant…

2024 House Overview (Dec. 15, 2023): Alabama - Iowa

by Jacob Rubashkin December 15, 2023 · 2:29 PM EST

Alabama. Primary March 5. Runoff April 2.
1st District (Southern Alabama) Jerry Carl, R, re-elected 84%. Trump 75%.
Court-ordered redistricting has given Alabama two congressional districts where Black voters will have the opportunity to elect a representative of their choice in 2024. Rather than run in the now Democratic-leaning…

2024 House Overview (Dec. 15, 2023): Kansas - New York

December 15, 2023 · 2:28 PM EST

Kansas. Filing deadline June 3. Primary Aug. 6.
3rd District (Kansas City suburbs) Sharice Davids, D, re-elected 55%. Biden 51%. Oncologist Prasanth Reddy got another stamp of establishment approval when Speaker Mike Johnson included the former LabCorp executive and Air Force Reserve officer in his joint fundraising committee. He’ll…