Pennsylvania 8 Poll: Carry On, Cartwright
October 29, 2024 · 5:08 PM EDT
Northeast Pennsylvania’s Matt Cartwright is the only Democrat in Congress to win two elections while Donald Trump carried his district at the top of the ticket.
A new Noble Predictive Insights poll conducted for Inside Elections shows Cartwright, who represents Pennsylvania’s 8th District, is well-positioned to continue that streak in 2024.
While the Scranton trial attorney is a perennial target for Republicans, who believe his Progressive Caucus membership puts him out of step with the district, his personal brand remains strong. In the survey, he led GOP opponent Rob Bresnahan, Jr. by 7 points, 50-43 percent.
Noble Predictive Insights surveyed 406 likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 8th District from Oct. 23-25.
The Lay of the Land
The 8th District sits in the northeastern corner of the Keystone State, encompassing all of Pike, Wayne and Lackawanna counties, as well as parts of Luzerne and Monroe counties. Its two largest cities are Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.
Lackawanna County, home to Scranton, is the largest source of Democratic votes in the district. Monroe County also leans Democratic, while the portion of Luzerne County in the seat tilts Republican. Pike and Wayne are heavily Republican.
The district is 72 percent white, 15 percent Hispanic, and 6 percent Black. Just 28 percent of residents have a bachelor’s degree.
A historically Democratic district, the 8th has shifted toward Republicans over the last decade. In 2020, Trump would have carried the district by 3 points over Scranton native Joe BIden, 51-48 percent. The GOP’s statewide nominees for auditor and treasurer also carried the district narrowly.
In 2022, Cartwright won by 2 points over GOP consultant Jim Bognet, 51-49 percent. Democrat John Fetterman carried the seat by 1 point over Republican Mehmet Oz in the Senate race, while Josh Shapiro won a heartier 9-point victory over Republican Doug Mastriano in the gubernatorial contest.
The House Race
Cartwright’s 7-point advantage over Bresnahan comes as the two parties have spent a combined $34 million on advertising since the beginning of the general election. While Bresnahan is personally wealthy — with a net worth between $16 million and $64 million — he only loaned his campaign $1.2 million, allowing Cartwright to outspend him on the airwaves by two-to-one. Overall, Democrats have outspent Republicans in the district, $19 million to $15 million.
Cartwright remains popular among the 8th’s voters, with 48 percent viewing him favorably and 38 viewing him unfavorably. Bresnahan is less well-known. Just 37 percent of voters view him favorably and 36 percent view him unfavorably.
In the House race, Cartwright has largely consolidated Democratic voters, capturing 92 percent of Harris supporters. But there is less unity among Republicans. Bresnahan had support from 86 percent of Trump voters, while another 10 percent backed Cartwright.
The Senate Race
Voters are more split on Pennsylvania’s blockbuster Senate race, in which former Bridgewater CEO Dave McCormick is giving Sen. Bob Casey the fight of his political life. McCormick and his allies have outspent Casey on the airwaves since the summer and Republican strategists are increasingly bullish on his chances.
In the 8th District, voters split evenly between Casey and McCormick, 44 percent apiece. McCormick is slightly more popular, with a 43 percent favorability ratings and 37 percent unfavorability rating, compared to Casey’s 42 percent favorable, 41 percent unfavorable score.
The Presidential Race
In the presidential contest, Trump looks set to carry this district by a similar margin to 2020. He led Harris, 49 percent to 46 percent.
(One note: Noble Predictive does not weight by recalled presidential vote, which in this poll favors Biden by 2 points even though the district voted for Trump in 2020. Recalled vote can often favor the overall winner of the election.)
Voters were asked which candidate they believed best fit the description “has the mental capacity required to be president.” Though Trump led in the district overall, Harris had an advantage on that question, with 47 percent saying she did compared to 44 percent for Trump. Another 4 percent said it applied equally.
When asked which candidate better fit the description “is a strong enough leader to be president,” it was Trump with the advantage: 49 percent said him, while 46 percent said Harris and 2 percent said both.
Trump is above water in the district, with 52 percent of voters viewing him favorably compared to 45 percent unfavorably. Harris is slightly underwater; 49 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of her and 50 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance is also popular, sporting a 50 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable rating, which Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is seen favorably by 45 percent but unfavorably by 48 percent.
The most popular politician tested in the poll was Shapiro, who was also considered by Harris as a potential ticketmate. He is seen favorably by 59 percent of the district and unfavorably by just 31 percent.
This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct 23-25, 2024 and surveyed registered voters in Pennsylvania's 8th district via text-to-online and live caller. In total, we interviewed 406 likely voters, determined via screening questions. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected electorate by gender, county, age, party registration, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Pennsylvania Department of State, and recent Census data. The margin of error was +/- 4.9 % for likely voters. Error due to non-response, survey design and other factors is not captured by sampling error calculations. Crosstabs are available here.
*Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.