Biden to Harris Transition Resets Presidential Race
July 26, 2024 · 2:30 PM EDT
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
While the dust is still settling on President Joe Biden’s decision to bow out of the race, his party’s switch to Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket looks like the great reset Democrats needed in the presidential race with just more than three months before Election Day.
Biden’s exit comes after an agonizing three weeks for Democrats following his dismal debate performance against former President Donald Trump. Not only did Biden trail Trump in general election polling in nearly all key swing states, but his poor standing was making life more difficult for House and Senate Democratic candidates, who were relying on historic levels of ticket-splitting to outpace their GOP opponents.
While the path to a majority in the House was still clear for Democrats, it had become more difficult. And the path to maintaining a majority in the Senate had become exceedingly narrow with the prospect of Vice President J.D. Vance being able to break tie votes..
Voters need time to digest the major events of the past two weeks: the assassination attempt on Trump, the GOP convention, Biden’s exit. It’s healthy to wait another week or so for more polling data before making firm proclamations about a new state of the race. But the initial evidence points to a boost for Democrats that helps the race land back to a normal, close race with independent voters and a half-dozen or so states hanging in the balance.
Presidential Race
National polling showing Biden trailing Trump by just a few points masked Biden’s poor numbers in state and district level polling. That is part of what caused Democrats to pull the fire alarm on his candidacy. But Biden’s mediocre standing in head-to-head matchups was fueled by his inability to consolidate Democratic voters. Democratic voters were either declining to support Biden or supporting a third party candidate such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Vice President Kamala Harris quickly established herself as the new presumptive nominee. Harris is not a perfect candidate, but she will likely be able to reassemble much of the Democratic coalition and energize a Democratic base that was becoming demoralized (case in point, the $100 million she raised in her first day in the race). An excited Democratic base certainly doesn’t guarantee victory, but it can help prevent a Republican wave.
While Republicans demonstrated their energy and unity in Milwaukee, the Democratic National Convention in Chicago was on track to be a political funeral. That clearly won’t be the case anymore as Harris’ candidacy has breathed new life into the party.
Republicans will try to hold Harris accountable for the sins of the current administration and highlight liberal policy positions she took during the 2020 presidential primary, but she shifts the generational matchup and conversation. Now Trump, 78, will be the oldest candidate in the race (and in American history) against the 59-year-old vice president. For voters who said they were concerned about the age of the candidates or apathetic about the 2020 rematch between two familiar and unpopular foes, Democrats now have an alternative that checks those boxes, which could be key in persuading independent voters.
Biden’s job rating will likely improve as the vast majority of Democrats (and Americans) approve of his decision to step aside. That should help morale but has less of an impact since he won’t be on the ballot. His numbers had reached such a low point that it’s hard to see Harris doing worse than the sitting president, particularly with a unified base. That being said, Harris will have to demonstrate her candidate skills on a larger stage and demonstrate that her improvement with younger voters and voters of color isn’t canceled out by losses among older white voters who connected with Biden.
Democrats have work to do, and Trump has the advantage until proven otherwise, but this is a new race and Republicans are clearly trying to regain their footing. We didn’t change our ratings toward Trump in the wake of the debate and will hold our ratings in place for now until surveys over the next couple weeks show how voter sentiment may have changed.
Senate and House Races
In general, Biden’s decision gives Democrats a glimmer of hope at a time when optimism is fleeting.
Senate Democrats, including Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, and Jacky Rosen in Nevada were already running well ahead of Biden in the most crucial battlegrounds, so they might be the least affected by a change at the top of the ticket. But they were still at risk of political gravity dragging them down based on the deep hole Biden was digging. It looks like Harris will decrease the number of split ticket voters they need in order to win re-election.
The bigger beneficiaries in the Senate could be the open-seat Democrats in swing states such as Elissa Slotkin in Michigan and Ruben Gallego of Arizona, who don’t have statewide brands to help overperform the top of the ticket. If Harris can keep those states competitive, Democrats have a better chance to hold them.
The Senate math is still good for Republicans because they’re already set to gain the seat in West Virginia. But if the newly formed presidential race is more competitive, then Democrats have an outside shot to hold their remaining seats and maintain control with a White House victory. The most likely outcome is still a GOP gain of 1-3 seats.
In the House, where races are often closely tied to the presidential outcome, Biden’s decision likely has a greater impact. If Harris can get close to Biden’s 2020 performance, then Democrats are in the conversation for a House majority. If not, then Republicans are likely to maintain or even grow their majority.
While it’s good to start laying out the potential fallout of Biden’s decision, there’s no historical analogue to the current situation, and it will be at least another couple weeks before the new normal can be identified.