Senate News & Analysis

Republicans Have a Post-Trump Identity Crisis on the Horizon

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 30, 2019 · 8:54 AM EDT

Republicans are enjoying their ride in the White House and basking in the glow of a divided Democratic presidential field, but a monumental identity crisis is looming for the GOP.

Whether you think President Donald Trump won’t be president in two months, two years or six years, Republicans are going…

Arizona Senate: Flight Path to Victory

by Leah Askarinam April 19, 2019 · 2:30 PM EDT

A year ago, Republican Martha McSally left her House seat behind only to lose a high-profile Senate election. Now, McSally is an appointed U.S. Senator in the state’s other seat and gearing up for another high-profile campaign with the majority potentially at stake.

Arizona is the only state in the…

2020 Senate Overview: Defining the Relationship

April 5, 2019 · 2:30 PM EDT

For Republicans, there’s more at stake in 2020 than the Senate majority. 

Not only is the GOP defending more seats next year, but this class includes a mix of leadership, legislative veterans, and rising stars, who are all in races to strengthen their connection to their states.

The terrain isn’t…

2020 Senate Overview (April 5, 2019): Alabama - Kansas

April 5, 2019 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). As a Democrat in a state where Hillary Clinton received less than 35 percent, Jones is the most vulnerable senator in the country. But there hasn’t been a flood of interested GOP candidates. 

Rep. Bradley Byrne, who represents Mobile and the southwest…

2020 Senate Overview (April 5, 2019): Kentucky - New Mexico

April 5, 2019 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kentucky. Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%) and 2014 (56%). Trump won Kentucky by nearly 20 points in 2016, Republicans have a 57-42 percent Baseline advantage, and Democrats haven’t won a Senate race since 1992. But with the polarizing majority leader up…

2020 Senate Overview (April 5, 2019): North Carolina - Wyoming

April 5, 2019 · 2:27 PM EDT

North Carolina. Thom Tillis (R), elected 2014 (49%). The nature of North Carolina as an emerging toss-up should breed a competitive contest. Republicans have a narrow 50-49 percent Baseline advantage. In 2016, President Trump won by 4 points and GOP Sen. Richard Burr won by 6 points, but Democrat Roy…

The Case for Primaries: Arizona Edition

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 3, 2019 · 9:14 AM EDT

Democrats breathed a sigh of relief last week when Rep. Ruben Gallego decided not to run for the Senate, likely avoiding a primary in the run-up to a competitive general election in Arizona. That’s because “bitter,” “bloody,” and “bruising” seem to be the most commonly used adjectives to describe primaries…

When It Comes to Younger Voters, Watch the Margin of Victory

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 29, 2019 · 8:49 AM EDT

There’s really no question Democrats are going to win younger voters in 2020. But what matters for them is the size of their margin of victory. 

Republicans haven’t carried 18-to-29-year-olds in an election cycle since 1994, when exit polling showed them besting Democrats in this age group, 51 percent to…

New Mexico: Ben Ray Lujan Set to Announce Senate Candidacy on Monday

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 28, 2019 · 9:00 AM EDT

Democratic Rep. Ben Ray Lujan plans to run for the Senate in New Mexico and is set to officially announce his candidacy on Monday, according to two sources familiar with the congressman’s decision. The seat is open after Democratic Sen. Tom Udall announced he would not seek re-election in 2020. 

For Senators, Pressure To Cross Party Lines Is Light

by Leah Askarinam March 26, 2019 · 11:10 AM EDT

Twelve Republicans parted with President Donald Trump on his national emergency funding. But given the electoral politics of the Senate, it would be unwise to expect much crossparty voting in the future.

The partisan performance of a state is not the only consideration that Senators take into account when…