Senate News & Analysis

West Virginia Senate: Justice Served?

by Jacob Rubashkin May 19, 2023 · 2:30 PM EDT

Senate Democrats are on defense all over the country. But in no place are they more vulnerable than in West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin is the last remaining Democratic statewide office holder in the Republican bastion.

Manchin has clung to his seat even as the the Mountaineer State has…

Texas Senate: Allred Is All In

by Erin Covey May 12, 2023 · 12:00 PM EDT

Democrats’ dreams of winning in the Lone Star State have failed to materialize for the past few decades. But with Sen. Ted Cruz up for re-election, they have a rare opportunity to seriously compete against an incumbent Republican senator in 2024.

The party landed a top recruit in Democratic Rep.…

Report Shorts (May 5, 2023)

May 5, 2023 · 2:27 PM EDT

Maryland Senate. Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin announced he will not seek re-election, setting up a competitive Democratic primary to replace him. Rep. David Trone is running, as is Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando. Rep. Jamie Raskin says he’ll take May to decide. Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks is likely…

2024 Senate Overview: Three’s Company

April 21, 2023 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales, Erin Covey, and Jacob Rubashkin

Republicans have yet another good opportunity to win control of the Senate in 2024. They just need some strong candidates to do it.

Considering the favorable Senate battlefield, narrow Democratic majority, and an unpopular Democratic president in the White House, GOP…

2024 Senate Overview (April 21, 2023): Arizona - Maine

April 21, 2023 · 2:29 PM EDT

Arizona. Kyrsten Sinema (I) elected 2018 as a Democrat (50%). Filing deadline April 8. Several unknown factors make it difficult to forecast Arizona’s upcoming Senate race.

The incumbent senator has yet to announce her 2024 plans. Sinema’s $2.1 million fundraising haul this past quarter provides more evidence that she’s seriously considering…

2024 Senate Overview (April 21, 2023): Maryland - Ohio

April 21, 2023 · 2:28 PM EDT

Maryland. Ben Cardin (D) elected 2006 (54%), 2012 (56%), 2018 (65%). Filing deadline Jan. 19. Cardin said in January he’d announce his plans in February or March, but he’s been mum since. However, he raised just $15,000 in the first three months of 2023, a paltry sum that set off…

2024 Senate Overview (April 21, 2023): Pennsylvania - Wyoming

April 21, 2023 · 2:27 PM EDT

Pennsylvania. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%), 2018 (56%). Filing deadline Feb. 2024. Democrats can breathe a sigh of relief now that Casey has announced his 2024 campaign. The longtime senator and son of Pennsylvania Gov. Bob Casey Sr. has a last name that’s worth political gold,…

Report Shorts (April 7, 2023)

April 7, 2023 · 1:28 PM EDT

Arizona's 1st District. The field of Democrats attempting to unseat GOP Rep. David Schweikert is shaping up. Jevin Hodge, who came less than 1 point away from defeating Schweikert last cycle, announced that he won’t run in 2024. Since then, Democratic state Rep. Amish Shah and  former state party chairman…

Florida Senate: A Cloudy Forecast for Democrats

by Erin Covey April 4, 2023 · 2:30 PM EDT

Rick Scott has never won an election by more than 1.2 points, but Florida’s rapid shift rightward has left Democrats in a dismal position to challenge the Republican senator as he prepares for his 2024 re-election campaign.

The GOP has been gaining ground in the Sunshine State for the past…

How Trump’s Legal Problems Could Affect Down Ballot Republicans

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 3, 2023 · 1:39 PM EDT

Even if legal problems don’t hinder former President Donald Trump’s political comeback attempt, they could hurt other Republican candidates on the ballot in 2024. 

Republicans won’t have to reckon with the electoral ramifications of Trump’s indictment for now. But much of the short-term analysis (or more specifically, the overall Republican…