Senate News & Analysis

New Mexico Senate Remains Solid Democratic For Now

March 25, 2019 · 12:20 PM EDT

Open seats are usually better takeover opportunities, but Republicans still have plenty of work to do in New Mexico to prove they’ve got a real chance of flipping the seat. Democratic Sen. Tom Udall of New Mexico announced on Monday that he would not seek re-election, but it’s been…

A Few Thoughts on the State of the Union Address

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 6, 2019 · 8:51 PM EST

I did something dangerous Tuesday night. I watched the State of the Union and the Democratic response on my own, without Twitter as a crutch. I even watched the C-SPAN feed on my phone in order to avoid commentary from the networks and cable channels.

My goal was to avoid…

Too Early for Senate Ratings?

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 1, 2019 · 2:28 PM EST

A couple decades ago, The Rothenberg Political Report would wait months before placing individual Senate races into specific ratings categories, admitting that the election cycle was far from taking shape. But that would be almost unthinkable today. For example, most media outlets that handicap races released 2020 Senate ratings before…

Report Shorts (Feb. 1, 2019)

February 1, 2019 · 2:27 PM EST

California’s 50th District. Alex Balkin became the second Democrat to announce a challenge to indicted GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter. 2018 nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar was the first. Balkin formerly worked at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Department of Defense. The district is considerably favorable to Republicans, considering Hunter was under…

Maine Senate: How Vulnerable is Susan Collins?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 25, 2019 · 9:10 AM EST

If Sen. Susan Collins runs for a fifth term, she ought to expect a very different race than in the past. Forget coasting to victory, no matter the opponent or even the nature of the election cycle.

Collins will start off as vulnerable — a top Democratic target in a…

Report Shorts (Jan. 18, 2019)

January 18, 2019 · 2:28 PM EST

California’s 50th District. Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar came within 4 points of defeating GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter in 2016 and announced he will seek a rematch in 2020. But there’s a chance neither man makes it to the next general election. 

Hunter is under indictment and facing trial in September, and there’s…

Can Doug Jones win a full term in Alabama?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 17, 2019 · 11:23 AM EST

Alabama’s junior senator, Democrat Doug Jones, has been in office for only 13 months, but he’s already preparing to face voters again in 2020. With the Senate at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer can’t afford to lose any seats next year if he hopes to…

5 reasons why there’s still no end to the shutdown

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 14, 2019 · 12:06 PM EST

Three weeks into the government shutdown, I’m not sure how this standoff ends, but I do know there are multiple reasons for how we got here.

What’s the problem? Democrats and Republicans can’t find a solution because they’re trying to solve two different problems. If you listen carefully, Democrats are…

2020 Senate Overview (Jan. 4, 2019): We’ve Only Just Begun

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 4, 2019 · 2:30 PM EST

President Donald Trump declared victory on Election Night 2018 when Republicans picked up a couple Senate seats, keeping their majority. But Democrats held their losses to a minimum in the face of a challenging map, which keeps them within reach of the majority in 2020.

The number of seats Democrats…

2020 Senate Overview (Jan. 1, 2019) Alabama - Kansas

January 4, 2019 · 2:29 PM EST

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). Jones defeated former state supreme court justice Roy Moore in a high-profile special election. It was the first Senate win for Alabama Democrats since 1992, when now-GOP Sen. Richard Shelby was re-elected as a Democrat. (He switched parties in 1994.) Even with…