Archive

Report Shorts (July 11, 2024)

July 11, 2024 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona’s 1st District. A Noble Predictive Insights poll fielded June 25-27 of 420 likely Democratic primary voters found five candidates within 8 points of each other and more than a third of the electorate still undecided. Former state Rep. Amish Shah and former state party chairman Andrei Cherny…

Return to Sender: Bowman Joins Rare “Primary In, Primary Out” Class

by Jacob Rubashkin June 29, 2024 · 1:24 PM EDT

New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s loss to George Latimer in the 16th District Democratic primary puts the progressive in rare company among House members.

While it is uncommon for any incumbent to lose a primary race — it happens just 2 percent of the time on average in any given cycle — it is…

Podcast Episode 26: Post-Debate Analysis + New York Races w/ Emily Ngo of Politico

June 28, 2024 · 4:22 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin look at the potential fallout from the CNN debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump and analyze a handful of key House races in New York with Emily Ngo of Politico. 

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts…

Key Primary Results in Colorado, New York, South Carolina and Utah

by Jacob Rubashkin June 26, 2024 · 10:13 AM EDT

A House incumbent was finally defeated in a primary this cycle, although it was not a surprise. 

Another is locked in a race that is still too close to call. And House Republicans had a good night overall in Colorado, where they avoided nominating flawed candidates in multiple races. 

Voters in…

2024 House Overview: Holding Pattern

June 20, 2024 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

A presidential year and presidential-level turnout was supposed to boost Democratic chances down the ballot. But that’s not how the cycle is playing out. Instead of President Joe Biden’s re-election carrying Democrats to a House majority, Democratic House…

2024 House Overview (June 20, 2024): Alaska - Iowa

June 20, 2024 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alaska. Primary Aug. 20.
At-Large District. Mary Peltola, D, re-elected 55%. Trump 53%. This race got a major shakeup when Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, who is the preferred candidate of national Republicans, over entrepreneur Nick Begich III, who is also in the race. Republican…

2024 House Overview (June 20, 2024): Kansas - New York

by Jacob Rubashkin June 20, 2024 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kansas. Primary Aug. 6.
3rd District (Kansas City suburbs) Sharice Davids, D, re-elected 55%. Biden 51%.
Oncologist and Air Force Reserve officer Prasanth Reddy is the top fundraiser in the GOP primary and is the preferred pick of House Speaker Mike Johnson. He’ll still have to get through a…

2024 House Overview (June 20, 2024): North Carolina - Wisconsin

June 20, 2024 · 2:27 PM EDT

North Carolina.
1st District (Inland northeastern North Carolina) Don Davis, D, elected 52%. Biden 50.4%.
The race between Davis and Republican Laurie Buckhout, a retired Army colonel, could be one of the most expensive in the country. While neither candidate is a particularly strong fundraiser —…

Virginia, Oklahoma, Georgia Runoff Primary Results

by Jacob Rubashkin June 18, 2024 · 11:30 PM EDT

One House Republican survived a spirited primary challenge this week, while another is locked in an expensive battle that is still too close to call. Elsewhere, Democrats and Republicans in Virginia selected their nominees for a handful of competitive general election races.

Voters in two states –…