House Republicans Shouldn’t Get Too Comfortable in Majority

Nathan L. Gonzales March 10, 2017 · 11:17 AM EST

Republican gerrymandering has put the House majority out of reach for Democrats, we’re told. But even though the initial playing field of competitive races is probably too small for the GOP to fall into the minority, Republicans shouldn’t get too comfortable. The playing field could expand…

Everything is Great. Just Great.

Stuart Rothenberg March 9, 2017 · 9:00 AM EST

To listen to White House spokesman Sean Spicer, everything is going great.  Because of President Donald Trump, new jobs are being created, restrictive and burdensome regulations are being eliminated, and the U.S. military will get the additional money it needs to keep the country safe. There will…

Democrats Delight in Delaware Special Election

Nathan L. Gonzales March 6, 2017 · 9:15 AM EST

From the women’s marches to town hall protests, Democrats are starting to feel emboldened about their prospects in the midterms. A recent special election for the state Senate in Delaware only added to Democratic optimism, but the realities surrounding the race are more sobering.


Mama Bear’s Unlikely Run (and Win) for Mayor

Nathan L. Gonzales March 3, 2017 · 1:29 PM EST

As an elections analyst, it can be hard to stop thinking about politics even when I get home for the day. Sometimes, I see political themes in my kids’ books even when they aren’t political books. And a few nights ago at bedtime, one of my sons brought me “Mama for Mayor” from the famous Berenstain…

2018 House Overview: Majority Closer Than It Appears

Nathan L. Gonzales February 27, 2017 · 3:30 PM EST

After a couple of cycles of being ignored, the fight for the House might finally get its time to shine. 

Republicans hold a narrow 52-48 majority in the Senate, but the slate of states up for re-election next year makes it difficult for Democrats to gain control. In the House, Republicans have a…

2018 House Overview (February 27, 2017) Alabama - Iowa

Nathan L. Gonzales February 27, 2017 · 3:29 PM EST

2nd District (Martha Roby, R, re-elected in 2016 with 49%). 2016 Presidential Winner: Trump 65%. DCCC Target. The congresswoman was re-elected with less than 50 percent last year when a conservative write-in candidate received nearly 11 percent. Roby vocalized her disappointment with Trump…

2018 House Overview (February 27, 2017) Kansas - New York

Nathan L. Gonzales February 27, 2017 · 3:28 PM EST

2nd District (Open; Lynn Jenkins, R).
Trump 56%. DCCC Target. The congresswoman announced she is not seeking re-election next year, prompting a race for her open seat. A host of Republicans are mentioned as potential candidates (some of whom could choose to run for governor) including state…

2018 House Overview (February 27, 2017) North Carolina - Wyoming

Nathan L. Gonzales February 27, 2017 · 3:27 PM EST

North Carolina.
8th District (Richard Hudson, R, re-elected with 59%).
Trump 56%. DCCC Target. The congressman won re-election handily, but Democrats believe the district is trending in their direction. House races will top the ballot in the Tar Heel State. Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey, who finished…

2018 House Ratings (February 27, 2017)

February 27, 2017 · 3:25 PM EST

Georgia 6 Special: Unreasonably Great Expectations

Stuart Rothenberg February 27, 2017 · 9:05 AM EST

The hype about the special election in Georgia’s 6th District has already begun even though the runoff, which will choose the next member of Congress, won’t be held until June 20.

The Daily 202, James Hohmann’s briefing from the Washington Post, went so far as to assert that the suburban Atlanta…