New Jersey Governor: Can Murphy Break The Curse?

by Jacob Rubashkin February 5, 2021 · 2:30 PM EST

Not long ago, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was riding the wave of a re-election win into a top-tier presidential bid. A few years later, politics on the ground have shifted, and Garden State Republicans are grasping for power, just hoping to stay competitive in this year’s gubernatorial contest.…

Ohio 11 Special: Clash on the Cuyahoga

by Jacob Rubashkin February 5, 2021 · 2:29 PM EST

Just three people have represented the eastern part of Cleveland since the 1960s: trailblazing Reps. Louis Stokes and Stephanie Tubbs Jones, and Rep. Marcia Fudge, who has been nominated by President Joe Biden to serve as secretary of housing and urban development.

Should Fudge be confirmed by the…

Ohio Senate: Open Season

February 5, 2021 · 2:28 PM EST

It’s been less than two weeks since GOP Sen. Rob Portman announced he would not seek re-election in Ohio and the broad field of potential candidates has already narrowed to a handful of contenders from each party.

Portman’s decision gives Democrats a glimmer of hope in a state that didn’t look all…

Candidate Conversation - Sarah Godlewski (D)

February 5, 2021 · 2:27 PM EST

Wisconsin Senate — Rating: Battleground

Interview Date: Jan. 28, 2021 (Zoom)

Date of Birth: Nov. 9, 1981; Eau Claire, Wisc.

Education: George Mason Univ. (2004); Univ. of Pennsylvania (attended)

Elected Office: State Treasurer (2019-present)

Current Outlook: Godlewski has not formally…

Pulling Back the Curtain on Race Ratings

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 5, 2021 · 2:26 PM EST

Each election cycle, race ratings are an integral part of the discussion about the fight for the House and Senate majorities. But where did they come from and how do they work?

While a few folks such as Kevin Phillips and Alan Baron dabbled with ratings going back to the late 1970s, the first…

Ohio Senate: Portman Decision Complicates Race

January 25, 2021 · 11:57 AM EST

Republican Sen. Rob Portman is not seeking re-election in Ohio, giving Democrats a glimmer of hope in a seat that didn’t look all that competitive at this early stage of the 2022 cycle. 

The senator’s comments about “partisan gridlock” will add to the narrative that Republicans are in disarray in…

2022 Senate Ratings (January 25, 2021)

January 25, 2021 · 11:56 AM EST

Virginia Governor: Republican Rebound?

by Jacob Rubashkin January 22, 2021 · 2:30 PM EST

It doesn’t have the same pomp and circumstance as the presidential inauguration, but the Virginia gubernatorial election is the next big political event on the docket. As one of only two states electing a governor in 2021 (New Jersey is the other), all eyes often turn to Virginia at the beginning…

New Mexico 1: The Land of a Special Election

by Jacob Rubashkin January 22, 2021 · 2:29 PM EST

Rep. Deb Haaland made history in 2018 as one of the first two Native American women ever to be elected to Congress. In 2021, she’ll likely make history again as the first ever Native American cabinet secretary. The Democratic congresswoman from New Mexico’s 1st District has been nominated by…

Vote Above Replacement: 2020 Senate Elections

January 22, 2021 · 2:28 PM EST

Democrats’ quest to take back the Senate paid off this cycle, thanks in no small part to a slate of strong candidates. The unique benefit provided by these recruits, as well as the value of other 2020 Senate contenders, can be quantified using Vote Above Replacement (VAR). And it provides depth to…