Brett Kavanaugh and the Midterm Effect

by Stuart Rothenberg July 16, 2018 · 9:20 AM EDT

The selection of Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court will have less of an impact on November’s midterms than you think. Sure, depending how the confirmation process develops, it’s possible the nomination could affect a handful of races, but the most likely scenario will not change the overall…

New Jersey 2: GOP House Open Seat Shifts to Likely Democratic

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 13, 2018 · 11:05 AM EDT

Sometimes political handicapping can be difficult. Shifting a well-liked Democratic senator in North Dakota, who has won a close and competitive race previously, to Tilts Republican from Toss-Up wasn’t an easy decision. But Republican Seth Grossman is making it easy for political analysts.


2018 Senate Overview: SCOTUS Shake-up

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 6, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement and successor have the potential to alter the balance of the Supreme Court for years, but it’s less clear whether his decision will fundamentally change the fight for the Senate majority in November.

At a minimum, the Supreme Court vacancy reinforces the…

Senate Overview (July 6, 2018): Arizona - Maine

July 6, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

ARIZONA. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. Aug. 28 primary. This is one of the only competitive Senate races where the general election matchup isn’t set yet. Rep. Martha McSally, former state Sen. Kelli Ward (who challenged John McCain in the 2016 primary), and former Maricopa County…

Senate Overview (July 6, 2018): Maryland - Ohio

July 6, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

MARYLAND. Ben Cardin (D) elected 2006 (54%), 2012 (56%). The Old Line State saw some anti-establishment energy in the June 26 primaries when Ben Jealous captured the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, but the senator cruised to victory, 81-6 percent, over former Army spy Chelsea Manning. GOP…

Senate Overview (July 6, 2018): Pennsylvania - Wyoming

July 6, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

PENNSYLVANIA. Bob Casey Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%). Trump won the state narrowly in 2016, but Casey isn’t acting particularly vulnerable and the race is on the outskirts of the discussion about the fight for the majority. Rep. Lou Barletta defeated state Rep. Jim Christiana 63-37…

Winter has Come for the Democratic Party

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 6, 2018 · 2:26 PM EDT

You can explain away 10-term Rep. Joe Crowley’s loss in the Democratic primary to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by pointing to demographic changes in the district or campaign missteps by the incumbent, but that obscures a larger trend. Similar to the dynamic in the Republican Party, the power of the…

Candidate Conversation - John Chrin (R)

July 6, 2018 · 2:25 PM EDT

Pennsylvania’s 8th District - Rating: Change to Lean Democratic

Interview Date: June 12, 2018

Date of Birth: May 15, 1963; Fountain Hill, Penn.

Education: Lehigh (1985 BA, 1986 BS); Columbia (MBA 1988)

Elected Office: None; First run for office. 

Current Outlook: Matt Cartwright was first…

Candidate Conversation - Richard Painter (DFL)

July 6, 2018 · 2:24 PM EDT

Minnesota Senate - Rating: Likely Democratic

Interview Date: May 22, 2018

Date of Birth: Oct. 3, 1961 (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) 

Education: Harvard (1984); Yale (1987)

Elected Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: Painter is the underdog against Sen. Tina Smith in the Aug. 14…