2022 Senate Overview (January 8, 2021): Hawaii - North Carolina

January 8, 2021 · 2:27 PM EST

HAWAII. Brian Schatz (D) appointed Dec. 2012, elected 2014 (70%), 2016 (74%). Biden won the state by nearly 30 points in November and the senator won re-election by more than 50 points in 2016. This is obviously not a Republican target. Most of the political conversation in the state will likely…

2022 Senate Overview (January 8, 2021): North Dakota - Wisconsin

January 8, 2021 · 2:26 PM EST

NORTH DAKOTA. John Hoeven (R) elected 2010 (76%), 2016 (78%). Democrat Heidi Heitkamp’s 2012 victory feels like an eternity ago based on more recent election results. Republican Kevin Cramer defeated Heitkamp by double-digits in 2018 and President Trump just won the state 34 points in November.…

Georgia Senate Runoffs: How Democrats Won

by Ryan Matsumoto January 8, 2021 · 2:25 PM EST

On Tuesday, the 2020 election cycle finally came to an end with two Democratic victories in Georgia’s Senate runoffs. This gives Democrats their 49th and 50th Senate seats, giving them a trifecta with control of the House, Senate, and presidency.

Let’s take a look at some of the keys to victory…

Vote Above Replacement: 2020 Presidential Election

by Bradley Wascher January 8, 2021 · 2:24 PM EST

Relative to polls and media narratives, President Donald Trump no doubt exceeded expectations on November 3rd. But there’s another way to gauge his, as well as Joe Biden’s, electoral performance.
Vote Above Replacement (VAR) measures the strength of a political candidate relative to a typical…

Georgia Senate Runoffs: Paths to Victory for Both Parties

January 4, 2021 · 9:57 AM EST

By Ryan Matsumoto & Bradley Wascher

On Tuesday, voters in Georgia will have the chance to dramatically shape the course of the Biden presidency. If both Democrats (Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock) emerge victorious in the state’s Senate runoff elections, Democrats will control the legislative and…

Georgia Senate Runoffs: Both Sides Getting Outspent?

by Jacob Rubashkin December 30, 2020 · 9:17 AM EST

On Monday, Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff released a joint memo “sounding the alarm” that their campaigns were at risk of failure if they didn’t raise more money. The memo warned that the two candidates, whose victories would hand control of the Senate to the Democrats, were being swamped…

Why Our 2022 Ratings Aren’t Imminent

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 23, 2020 · 8:31 AM EST

We’re putting a pause on our first Senate and House ratings for the 2022 cycle, but it’s not for the reason you might be thinking. After whiffing on the House projection this year as President Donald Trump overperformed expectations, I floated the idea of forgoing race ratings in elections whenever…

Georgia Senate Runoffs: Policy Agendas, Outside Spending, and Polls

by Jacob Rubashkin December 18, 2020 · 2:30 PM EST

On January 5, 2021, voters in Georgia will head to the polls to participate in the most consequential Senate runoffs in modern history, the outcomes of which will decide which party controls the Senate, and if the Biden administration enters with a united or divided government.

Already, more than…

Statewide Baseline Updates After the 2020 Election

by Bradley Wascher December 18, 2020 · 2:29 PM EST

With the election results now certified, it’s easier to begin analyzing what happened. Inside Elections is excited to roll out updates to our Baseline metric, now incorporating results from 2020. Baseline captures a state or congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal…