Archive

House Primaries on the Horizon for Democrats in 2020

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 20, 2018 · 9:30 AM EST

We already know the Democratic presidential primary is going to be crowded and crazy as a few dozen candidates battle for the right to take on President Donald Trump.

But at least a handful of 2020 House primaries are also on the horizon for Democrats as the party fights over ideology and loyalty.…

North Carolina: Blue Wave Steered Clear of ‘Blue Moon’ Election

by Leah Askarinam December 14, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST

Democrats gained at least 40 House seats in races across the country, but the wave’s course veered from two key states: Ohio and North Carolina.

Looking at top-of-the-ballot results, it’s no surprise that Democrats failed to chip into Ohio’s House delegation. Democratic performance statewide…

Post-Midterms Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR) Update

by Ryan Matsumoto December 14, 2018 · 2:29 PM EST

Last month, Inside Elections revealed two of our new statistics: Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR).

Baseline captures a state or congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the last four election cycles into a single average. VAR…

2019 Gubernatorial Overview: There’s No Off Year in Three States

by Leah Askarinam December 14, 2018 · 2:28 PM EST

Democrats went into the 2018 cycle with just 16 governors nationwide, and came out with 23. After next year’s elections, Democrats have a longshot opportunity to occupy half of the country’s governorships. 

Results for the midterms are still being certified—and in at least one case, being…

Expect Record Turnout in 2020

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 13, 2018 · 2:53 PM EST

With the 2018 elections coming to an end, it’s clear that voters set a modern record for turnout in a midterm. And there’s no reason to believe voters won’t set another record two years from now.

According to the United States Election Project, turnout this year was nearly 50 percent of the…

Are White Evangelicals the Saviors of the GOP?

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 12, 2018 · 3:37 PM EST

Amid all the talk about shifting demographics and political changes over the last decade, one key voting group has remained virtually unchanged: white evangelicals.

According to one evangelical leader, a record number of white evangelicals voted in the 2018 midterms after an inspired turnout…

The 2018 Midterms as the Buffet Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 3, 2018 · 8:55 AM EST

When I was a kid in small-town Oregon, my family would occasionally go to King’s Table, and my sister and I would get free rein at the buffet.

I became famous in my own family for my condiment salad — an impressive collection of bacon bits, croutons, shredded cheese, sunflower seeds and plenty of…

Goodbye Midterm Dynamic, Hello Presidential Politics

by Stuart Rothenberg November 29, 2018 · 9:15 AM EST

Midterm elections and presidential cycles have such different dynamics that the two should almost never be discussed together. That will not prevent people from doing so, but they should resist the temptation. 

Midterms tend to be referendums on the incumbent president, while each presidential…

Five Thoughts After the Mississippi Senate Race

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 28, 2018 · 12:46 PM EST

Even though it looks like California will be counting votes until Christmas, I’m ready to close the book on the 2018 midterm elections now that the Mississippi Senate race is over. Yes, I know there are runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana for state races, but the marquee matchups are complete.

Here…

Mississippi Senate Special: Delta Delays

by Leah Askarinam November 20, 2018 · 11:00 AM EST

Amidst the uncertainty about key Senate races in Florida, Arizona, Montana, and Nevada on Election Night, one thing was clear: the midterms would continue beyond Thanksgiving.

The delay in other key states was a result of narrow margins and recounts, but the race in Mississippi was never likely to…