Report Shorts (January 20, 2023)

January 20, 2023 · 2:28 PM EST

Senate. Two recent polls suggest that independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has a tough road to re-election if she runs for a second term. A Dec. 19-20 Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego found Sinema in third place with 13 percent, behind 2022 GOP…

Illinois 4 Special: The Potential Race to Replace Chuy García

by Erin Covey January 17, 2023 · 2:45 PM EST

The upcoming Chicago mayoral race has drawn a crowded field of candidates hoping to unseat Mayor Lori Lightfoot. Chief among her challengers is Democratic Rep. Chuy García, a progressive congressman from the southwest side of Chicago. If he wins, it’ll put another congressional special election on…

Electoral Considerations of the 21 McCarthy Holdouts

by Jacob Rubashkin January 12, 2023 · 10:05 AM EST

At the start of the new Congress, House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy limped to the speakership in a post-midnight vote that followed four days of stalemate and a final half-hour of chaos on the floor of the House of Representatives.

McCarthy always had the support of an overwhelming majority of the…

Breaking Down the Demographics of the 118th Congress

by Erin Covey January 11, 2023 · 11:59 AM EST

Slowly but surely, the U.S. Congress has begun to better reflect the nation.

But even as the House and the Senate have gradually become more diverse, the rate at which that happens has appeared to decline. The number of women and nonwhite members in the 118th Congress has only marginally increased…

Vote Above Replacement: 2022 Governor Elections

by Bradley Wascher January 10, 2023 · 10:15 AM EST

For the first time since 1986, the president’s party netted gubernatorial seats in a midterm election, as Democrats gained three new governorships in 2022 and Republicans flipped only one. Although it wasn’t much of a surprise that Massachusetts and Maryland moved into the Democrats’ column,…

2024 Senate Overview: Majority on the Line, Again

January 6, 2023 · 2:30 PM EST

By Nathan L. Gonzales, Erin Covey, and Jacob Rubashkin

Republicans failed to take control of the Senate in 2022, but they’ll have another good shot at it in 2024. 

The GOP fumbled a tremendous opportunity last cycle running in a midterm election with an unpopular Democratic president. Republicans…

2024 Senate Overview (January 6, 2023) Arizona - Maine

January 6, 2023 · 2:29 PM EST

Arizona. Kyrsten Sinema (I) elected 2018 as a Democrat (50%). Filing deadline April 2024. Sinema’s decision to change parties throws a wrench into the battle for Arizona’s competitive Senate seat. The independent senator has not said if she will run for re-election. But if she does run, the…

2024 Senate Overview (January 6, 2023): Maryland - Ohio

January 6, 2023 · 2:28 PM EST

Maryland. Ben Cardin (D) elected 2006 (54%), 2012 (56%), 2018 (65%). Filing deadline Jan. 19, 2024. Cardin will be 81 in 2024. If he runs, he should win easily. But if he bows out, expect a crowded Democratic primary to replace him, with the winner heavily favored in November. Prince George’s…

2024 Senate Overview (January 6, 2023): Pennsylvania - Wyoming

January 6, 2023 · 2:27 PM EST

Pennsylvania. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%), 2018 (56%). Filing deadline TBD. After a disappointing midterm election for Pennsylvania Republicans, they’re hoping to unseat Keystone State’s senior senator in 2024. Casey is the longest serving Democratic senator in Pennsylvania’s…