Goodbye Midterm Dynamic, Hello Presidential Politics

by Stuart Rothenberg November 29, 2018 · 9:15 AM EST

Midterm elections and presidential cycles have such different dynamics that the two should almost never be discussed together. That will not prevent people from doing so, but they should resist the temptation. 

Midterms tend to be referendums on the incumbent president, while each presidential…

Five Thoughts After the Mississippi Senate Race

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 28, 2018 · 12:46 PM EST

Even though it looks like California will be counting votes until Christmas, I’m ready to close the book on the 2018 midterm elections now that the Mississippi Senate race is over. Yes, I know there are runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana for state races, but the marquee matchups are complete.


Mississippi Senate Special: Delta Delays

by Leah Askarinam November 20, 2018 · 11:00 AM EST

Amidst the uncertainty about key Senate races in Florida, Arizona, Montana, and Nevada on Election Night, one thing was clear: the midterms would continue beyond Thanksgiving.

The delay in other key states was a result of narrow margins and recounts, but the race in Mississippi was never likely to…

2018 Midterms Review: Back to Normal

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 20, 2018 · 10:59 AM EST

When Donald Trump was elected president of the United States there was a temptation to declare that none of the rules of politics mattered anymore. But the 2018 midterm elections proved that the fundamentals of running campaigns in this country are still intact.

In many ways, 2018 was a classic…

2018 Senate Ratings (November 20, 2018)

November 20, 2018 · 10:57 AM EST

It’s Not Too Early to Start Looking at the 2020 Senate Map

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 14, 2018 · 8:54 AM EST

The races are still being finalized in the 2018 Senate elections, but we know the size of the incoming majority will be critical, because the 2020 Senate map offers limited initial takeover opportunities for both parties.

Of course, it’s too early to tell what the presidential race will look like,…

Inside Elections on Election Night

November 6, 2018 · 9:05 AM EST

The big day is finally here. Tonight, Leah will be behind-the-scenes at CBS on their Decision Desk. Nathan (who was on CNN bright and early this morning), will help kick off C-SPAN’s coverage at 8pm Eastern, will make some taped appearances on PBS Newshour, and will be a part of CBN’s live coverage…

A Few Moves on the Eve of the Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 5, 2018 · 10:46 AM EST

On the eve of Election Day 2018, the battleground is largely set, but GOP prospects have dimmed in at least one suburban seat and couple Democratic longshots should be taken more seriously 

The addition of Alaska’s At-Large District and South Carolina’s 1st District brings the total number of…

2018 House Ratings (November 5, 2018)

November 5, 2018 · 10:45 AM EST

2018 Election Preview: Embrace the Uncertainty

November 1, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

Two years is long enough to forget how crazy the last week of the elections is. From rumors of surprise races to breaking news events with unknown political consequences, each cycle often includes a fast and furious finish.

In the midst of uncertainty (and…