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Fight Over Congressional Redistricting Begins With Key Gubernatorial Contests

Stuart Rothenberg February 8, 2017 · 9:00 AM EST

While the 2020 census is still three years away, the fight for control of the congressional redistricting process is underway -- in developing gubernatorial contests in a handful of key states.

Yes, there are plenty of unknowns about reapportionment and redistricting, since the courts, the Trump…

The Voters Were Right About Donald Trump

Stuart Rothenberg February 2, 2017 · 10:43 AM EST

Americans who liked Donald Trump’s swagger during the campaign are pleased with his first two weeks in office. Really pleased. 

A veteran Republican campaign strategist told me he just saw a poll of GOP primary voters in a Southern state that found the president’s image as 93 percent favorable/3…

Three Trump Campaign Aides Who Could Get Elected to Congress

Nathan L. Gonzales January 31, 2017 · 10:14 AM EST

During the campaign, there probably weren’t enough full-throated Donald Trump supporters on Capitol Hill to fill a minivan. But two Trump campaign aides could get elected in House special elections later this year, while another adviser may challenge a Republican senator in a primary next year.

Trump’s Fast Start Likely Puts the House in Play in 2018

Stuart Rothenberg January 30, 2017 · 10:43 AM EST

President Donald Trump is off to a fast start, but that aggressiveness could produce the same sort of reaction that Barack Obama’s fast start did in 2009: It could lead to a midterm election in which voters apply the brakes.

In 2010, voters told President Obama that he had gone too far, too fast,…

Ohio Senate: Bull’s-eye on the Buckeye State

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Nathan L. Gonzales January 27, 2017 · 4:20 PM EST

No, you don’t have vertigo from the 2016 elections. Some candidates have already announced their campaigns for the 2018 midterm elections, including Ohio Republican Josh Mandel. And no, you’re not experiencing déjà vu, Mandel faced Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in 2012, and is on track to do so…

South Carolina 5 Special: Mulvaney Moving On

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Nathan L. Gonzales January 27, 2017 · 4:19 PM EST

South Carolina was supposed to be the place where Jeb Bush resurrected his campaign. The place where Donald Trump’s momentum would be stalled. But Trump prevailed in the Palmetto State primary last year, and now he’s tapped two South Carolina Republicans for initial cabinet-level positions.

Trump…

Women’s March: A Moment or a Movement?

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Nathan L. Gonzales January 27, 2017 · 4:18 PM EST

Less than 24 hours after Donald Trump took the oath of office, hundreds of thousands of women descended onto the streets of Washington, D.C. in protest of the new president. 

There were immediate comparisons to the Tea Party movement that began in 2009 with rallies against new President Barack…

How President Trump Can Avoid President Obama’s Biggest Mistake

Nathan L. Gonzales January 25, 2017 · 11:23 AM EST

Donald Trump’s critics believe the new president is clueless (or worse), but he might be on track to avoid repeating former President Barack Obama’s biggest political mistake. 

Trump’s pre-inaugural press conference was widely panned, but his comments on the future of health care legislation were…

Does the NRSC Have the Right Message for 2018?

Stuart Rothenberg January 24, 2017 · 10:40 AM EST

The National Republican Senatorial Committee’s assault on Democratic senators up for re-election in 2018 has already begun.

That committee has sent out more than half a dozen press releases since the beginning of the year attacking Democratic senators facing re-election from states carried by…

The Certainty of Death, Taxes, and White Evangelicals

Nathan L. Gonzales January 19, 2017 · 8:30 AM EST

As the electorate evolves with each election cycle because of changing demographics, there is one constant: white evangelicals. Once again, they made up one-quarter of the electorate and voted heavily for the Republican presidential nominee.

White voters, as a share of the electorate, have been on…