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2018 Senate Overview: The Map vs. Reality

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Nathan L. Gonzales July 7, 2017 · 3:00 PM EDT

Democrats are just three seats away from a Senate majority, yet the fight for the House (where Democrats need to gain 24 seats) is the emerging storyline of the 2018 midterm elections. That’s because it’s all about the map.

The first step for Democrats in their best-case scenario is to re-elect…

2018 Senate Overview (July 7, 2017) Alabama - Maine

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July 7, 2017 · 2:59 PM EDT

ALABAMA - Luther Strange (R) appointed 2017. Special Election. GOP Gov. Robert Bentley appointed state Attorney General Luther Strange to the seat after Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions was confirmed as President Donald Trump’s attorney general. The appointment was controversial considering Strange’s…

2018 Senate Overview (July 7, 2017) Maryland - Ohio

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July 7, 2017 · 2:58 PM EDT

MARYLAND - Ben Cardin (D) elected 2006 (54%), 2012 (56%). Unless GOP Gov. Larry Hogan decides to challenge Cardin instead of seeking re-election (which he’s not going to do), Republicans aren’t going to win this seat. In 2016, Clinton defeated Trump 60-34 percent and Democrat Chris Van Hollen…

2018 Senate Overview (July 7, 2017) Oklahoma - Wyoming

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July 7, 2017 · 2:57 PM EDT

PENNSYLVANIA - Bob Casey, Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%). With Trump’s 49-48 percent win over Clinton and Sen. Pat Toomey’s re-election in 2016, Republicans are feeling emboldened about their chances of defeating Casey next year. Now they just need a candidate. Rep. Mike Kelly looked…

Ratings Change: Illinois 12

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July 7, 2017 · 2:56 PM EDT

Democrats have been trying to get St. Clair County State’s Attorney Brendan Kelly to run in Illinois’ 12th District for five years. He finally took the plunge this week and announced his challenge to GOP Rep. Mike Bost. 

One big question is whether Democrats missed their window of opportunity.…

GOP Campaign Tracker Violates Bipartisan Truce (Again)

Nathan L. Gonzales July 7, 2017 · 9:31 AM EDT

Trackers have become standard operating procedure in today’s campaigns, as young operatives follow and record candidates’ every move and whisper with the hope of catching a gaffe. But up to this point, there has been rare bipartisan agreement that the Senate hallways were off limits.

“New low for…

For GOP, Health Care Bill Looks Riskier by the Day

Stuart Rothenberg July 5, 2017 · 4:01 PM EDT

The new Republican National Committee web video “Where’s Their Plan?” purports to place the onus for the nation’s health care crisis on Democrats, but instead shows how far off base the RNC is in understanding how the issue is likely to play next year if the party can’t pass a popular replacement…

How Divided Parties Survive and Thrive

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Nathan L. Gonzales June 23, 2017 · 3:00 PM EDT

Democrats were divided before the special election in Georgia, and Jon Ossoff’s loss certainly didn’t help heal any internal wounds. The party went “all in” to win the suburban Atlanta seat and came up short in the type of district the party needs to win to get to a majority next year, and the…