Archive

Kentucky Senate: Seriously, Are We Doing This Again?

by Stuart Rothenberg July 18, 2019 · 2:06 PM EDT

I understand Democrats’ frustration with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, as well as their desire to send him into retirement in the 2020 elections. But once again Democrats have gotten ahead of themselves in their optimism that they can defeat the Kentucky Republican.

Six years ago,…

What We Can Learn from the 2004 Presidential Race

by Stuart Rothenberg July 12, 2019 · 1:59 PM EDT

Beware of reading too much into presidential polls. Take, for example, the 2004 race.

An August 2003 CNN/USA Today/Gallup national survey found Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic nominee for vice president, leading the party’s presidential field with 23 percent. He was trailed by…

Fallout from Amash’s Decision in Michigan and Beyond

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 10, 2019 · 11:45 AM EDT

Republicans didn’t shed a tear after Rep. Justin Amash jumped the GOP ship. But their exuberance for being rid of the Michigan congressman might be masking his impact on the party’s effort to recapture the House majority and regain control of his 3rd District.  

As more of a libertarian than a…

How Many Ways is Michigan in Play in 2020?

by Stuart Rothenberg July 3, 2019 · 1:31 PM EDT

Michigan is surprisingly relevant in 2020.

The Democratic presidential nominee almost certainly has to carry the state next year to have any chance of denying President Donald Trump a second term. And Republicans are eyeing the seat of first-term Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.

Democrats must net…

If at First You Don’t Succeed, Try, Try and Run Somewhere Else

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 2, 2019 · 1:40 PM EDT

A handful of House candidates this cycle aren’t letting previous losses — or geography — get in the way of another congressional run. Dozens of members of Congress lost races before eventually winning, but some politicians are aiming their aspirations at different districts, and in some cases…

2020 Senate Overview (June 28, 2019): Dual of the Fates

June 28, 2019 · 2:30 PM EDT

by Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

With the growing correlation between presidential results and Senate results, the GOP majority should be fine if President Donald Trump replicates his 2016 Electoral College map, even if Republicans lose a seat or two. But if Trump slips, Senate Republicans…

2020 Senate Overview (June 28, 2019): Alabama - Kansas

June 28, 2019 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). Nov. 8 filing deadline. March 3 primary. March 31 runoff. There might be only one way Jones is elected to a full term, but that scenario could come true. Republicans in Washington are working to make sure Roy Moore, who lost the special election…

2020 Senate (June 28, 2019): Kentucky - New Mexico

June 28, 2019 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kentucky. Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%) and 2014 (56%). Jan. 28 filing deadline. May 19 primary. Veteran Amy McGrath is likely to challenge the majority leader. She was one of Democrats’ highest-profile House challengers in 2018, but lost to…