Five Key Takeaways from the Wisconsin Supreme Court Election

by Ryan Matsumoto April 22, 2020 · 10:34 AM EDT

A week ago, challenger Jill Karofsky won a hotly contested Wisconsin Supreme Court election, defeating incumbent Daniel Kelly. Even though it was a state race, the results were the latest evidence that the Badger State will be a presidential battleground in November. 

Although Wisconsin judicial…

The Battle for the House, As Told Through Super PAC Ad Reservations

by Jacob Rubashkin April 17, 2020 · 10:34 AM EDT

Even though it’s not yet summer, there are windows looking into the fall. Recent television ad reservations from the Congressional Leadership Fund and the House Majority PAC show that, despite higher profile races for the Senate and White House, the battle for the House of Representatives…

Fewer Political Ads Now, Doesn’t Mean Less Advertising Later

by Steve Passwaiter April 15, 2020 · 10:00 AM EDT

The coronavirus has put a temporary end to simple things such as sitting at a restaurant or going to a baseball game, but don’t declare the end of political advertising just yet. 

With travel, rallies, and in-person campaigning severely curtailed, and campaigns striving to maximize communication…

Questioning My Boldest Projection for 2020

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 13, 2020 · 8:13 AM EDT

Through all of the twists and turns of this election, I’ve been confident about one thing: record-breaking turnout. Obviously, with the spread of a pandemic, I’ve started to question my projection a bit.

I first wrote about the potential for a record-setting turnout in December 2018, and for the…

Likely New Members of the 117th Congress (April 10, 2020)

by Jacob Rubashkin April 10, 2020 · 10:30 AM EDT

Predicting election outcomes can be a fraught business. You don’t have to look further than the 2016 presidential race to see that. 

But for some races, one candidate has such an advantage — due to the constituency’s partisan lean, candidate quality, or other factors — that their path to…

Will There be More Republican Women in the House Next Year?

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 9, 2020 · 4:17 PM EDT

With just 13 women on Capitol Hill, House Republicans don’t have any room for error if they want to boost their numbers. After this year’s initial batch of primaries, however, and looking ahead at primaries to come, Republicans are at risk of simply breaking even when it comes to their female…

Coronavirus and Campaign Ads: How the Pandemic Is Playing on TV

by Jacob Rubashkin April 8, 2020 · 9:15 AM EDT

The attack ad began as many do: ominous music, stock photos of people looking worried, a narrator gravely intoning on the failure of Montana Sen. Steve Daines to protect his constituents’ healthcare. 

But this ad, which was produced by Democratic group Protect Our Care and aired on March…

Be Careful When Explaining House Retirements

by Bradley Wascher April 7, 2020 · 11:05 AM EDT

When now-former Rep. Mark Meadows officially resigned from Congress earlier recently, there wasn’t much shock among the Republican Party. After all, Meadows, known for leading the conservative House Freedom Caucus, had initially stated his intentions to not seek re-election, as he foresaw an…

2020 Senate Overview (April 3, 2020): Senate is (Still) In Play

April 3, 2020 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

The spread of coronavirus has thrown even the most mundane tasks into uncertainty, yet the fight for the Senate remains the same. Control of the Senate was on the line before the health crisis and continues to be at stake in November.

Over the last year,…