A Good Night for Trump and Polling, and Other Post-Iowa Thoughts

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 16, 2024 · 7:53 AM EST

Thanks to Iowa Republicans, the first 2024 election is in the books, and we have the first opportunity of the year to chew over some results. 

The bottom line is that Donald Trump did what he needed to do. The former president came into Monday as the clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination and…

New York 3 Special: Nassau County Clash

by Jacob Rubashkin January 11, 2024 · 2:30 PM EST

The antics and alleged crimes of George Santos have put a spotlight on New York’s 3rd District for over a year. But the lights are brighter than ever now that Santos has been expelled and the 3rd District is up for grabs in the first competitive House special election of the cycle.

A former…

Ohio 6 Special: GOP Fight in Formerly Blue Territory

by Jacob Rubashkin January 11, 2024 · 2:29 PM EST

Serving in Congress is so bad that one member would rather be a college president than finish out the remainder of his term. 

Republican Bill Johnson will exit Congress on Jan. 21 to take a job as president of Youngstown State University, triggering a special election in the Ohio River Valley seat…

Senate Report Shorts (Jan. 11, 2024)

January 11, 2024 · 2:28 PM EST

California Senate. Less than two months before the March 5 primary, the TV ad war is heating up. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter has spent or reserved $2 million on ads compared to $1.77 million for Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and $89,000 from Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee, according to AdImpact. But…

Vote Above Replacement: 2022 House Elections

by Bradley Wascher January 10, 2024 · 10:50 AM EST

Judging candidate performance is often a subjective and imprecise game.

Sure, you can clearly tell when a diamond is a diamond or a dud is a dud, but outside of these obvious outliers, the labels “strong” and “weak” have different definitions depending on who you ask. Particularly for House races,…

Jacob Rubashkin Promoted to Deputy Editor

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 8, 2024 · 3:23 PM EST

Inside Elections is excited to announce the promotion of Jacob Rubashkin to Deputy Editor. 

Jacob has been an integral part of the team since joining Inside Elections from NBC News in early 2020 as a reporter and analyst. He will continue his thorough writing on individual races while taking on an…

Podcast Episode 13: New York 3 Special, Iowa Caucus w/ Marianne LeVine

January 5, 2024 · 9:17 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Marianne LeVine of the Washington Post discuss the special election to replace George Santos in New York’s 3rd District and the upcoming Republican caucuses in Iowa, with a side of movie reviews. 

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket…

New Year, New House Ratings

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 3, 2024 · 4:39 PM EST

Sometimes overshadowed by the fights for the White House and Senate, the House majority is on the line in 2024 as well. With Republicans defending a narrow majority, changes in individual races can have a considerable impact on the fight for control. 

Looking at the races individually shows…

Podcast Episode 12: Baseline, Evenly-Divided Districts, Memorable Holiday Gifts

December 21, 2023 · 11:01 AM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Bradley Wascher discuss Inside Elections’ Baseline metric, which measures the partisan performance of every district and every state. They also dive into some of the most evenly-divided districts in the country and talk about their favorite holiday gift…