Presidential Snapshot in Time (September 4, 2020)

by Bradley Wascher September 4, 2020 · 10:16 AM EDT

The conventions are over and the polls are trickling in: as of right now, there doesn’t appear to be much of a bounce for either now-official nominee.

In an average of 34 polls released over the past two weeks, Joe Biden led Donald Trump by 8.1 points (49.8 percent to 41.8 percent). 

Compared to…

Likely New Members of the 117th Congress (September 1, 2020)

by Jacob Rubashkin September 1, 2020 · 2:00 PM EDT

Predicting election outcomes can be a fraught business. You don’t have to look further than the 2016 presidential race to see that

But for some races, one candidate has such an advantage -- due to the constituency’s partisan lean, candidate quality, or other factors -- that their path to office is…

Trump Needs a Convention Bounce

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 1, 2020 · 10:25 AM EDT

Whether you believe in convention bounces or not, President Donald Trump and the Republicans need one to salvage the elections this fall.

On the current trajectory, former Vice President Joe Biden is likely to win the White House and Democrats are more likely than not to take control of the…

Mississippi Senate: Espy’s 1988 convention speech offers clues to 2020 optimism

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 26, 2020 · 8:39 AM EDT

When Mississippi Rep. Mike Espy took the stage at the 1988 Democratic National Convention, he was a rising star casting a vision for a New South. Thirty-two years later, Espy believes his state is finally ready to turn the page and elect him to the U.S. Senate.

Less than two years before his…

The Election in the Mirror Is Closer Than It Appears

August 21, 2020 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

This election cycle, and even just this year, has been filled with multiple historic events: the impeachment of a president, a global pandemic, near economic collapse, a national conversation about racism in America, and the first Black woman on a…

Senate Report Shorts (August 21, 2020)

August 21, 2020 · 2:29 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). The senator was part of the Democrats’ primetime lineup on the first night of their national convention, further evidence that Jones is not shying away from his partisan label. Even though Trump should win…

House Report Shorts (August 21, 2020)

August 21, 2020 · 2:28 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

25th District (Northern Los Angeles County suburbs) Mike Garcia, R, elected in May 2020 special election 55%. Clinton 50%. If the election were held today, Garcia would probably be the favorite to get elected to a full term after winning the…

Candidate Conversation: Ashley Hinson (R)

August 21, 2020 · 2:27 PM EDT

Iowa’s 1st District — Rating: Tilt Democratic

Interview Date: July 29, 2020 (Google Meet)

Date of Birth: June 27, 1983; Des Moines, Iowa

Education: Univ. of Southern California (2004)

Elected Office: State Representative (2017-present)

Current Outlook: Hinson is a top challenger in a district…

Candidate Conversation: Victoria Spartz (R)

August 21, 2020 · 2:26 PM EDT

Indiana’s 5th District — Rating: Lean Republican

Interview Date: July 30, 2020 (Google Meet)

Date of Birth: Oct. 6, 1978; Ukraine

Education: Kyiv National Economic Univ. (2000); Indiana Univ-Purdue Univ. Indianapolis (MAcc)

Elected Office: State Senator (2017-present)

Current Outlook: Spartz…