How Women Could Lose Senate Seats in the Latest Year of the Woman

by Leah Askarinam April 4, 2018 · 11:33 AM EDT

Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith’s appointment in Mississippi will bring the number of women in the U.S. Senate to 23, the largest in U.S. history. While there’s room for that number to grow in the November midterm elections, with a handful of women in both parties running in competitive seats, it’s…

Ratings Update: Connecticut 5 Remains Solid Democratic for Now

April 2, 2018 · 9:30 PM EDT

Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty announced that she won’t run for re-election after the Connecticut Post reported that she recommended her former chief of staff for a job after facing accusations of physically and verbally harassing another staffer.

“Too many women have been harmed by harassment in…

How Can the GOP Turn Out Trump Voters?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 2, 2018 · 9:26 AM EDT

In my column last week, I noted that current public opinion data and recent election results point to a likely Democratic takeover of the House in the fall.

Some argue President Donald Trump’s unpopularity is already baked into the election cake, leaving Republicans little room to maneuver. But if…

Pennsylvania 6 Rating Change: Costello Decision Shifts Seat to Likely Democratic

March 24, 2018 · 11:23 PM EDT

If GOP Rep. Ryan Costello thought he could win, it sure seems like he would have run again. But despite having nearly $1.4 million in campaign funds on Dec. 31, the 41-year-old congressman is not seeking re-election in the newly-drawn 6th District of Pennsylvania. His withdrawal  takes a GOP seat…

2018 House Ratings (March 24, 2018)

March 24, 2018 · 11:22 PM EDT

Montana Senate: GOP Hopes to Strike Gold In The Treasure State

by Leah Askarinam March 23, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

We’re told it’s better to be lucky than good, but Democrat Jon Tester might be both. The Senator from Montana was elected and re-elected with less than a majority in two good Democratic cycles against flawed opponents. But he’s also cultivated a home-grown image that will make it difficult for…

Top of the Ticket Woes Could Lead to Downballot Debacle

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

It’s no secret that Republicans are headed for difficult midterm elections this fall, particularly in the House. It could be tough for GOP incumbents and candidates to generate enthusiasm among Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters when the President is not on the ballot. But the lack of competitive…

Illinois Primaries: Opportunities in the Land of Lincoln

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

Primaries can be a painful winnowing process for political parties, but they help set the stage for significant general election races in the fall. And unlike Texas, Illinois doesn’t have a runoff provision, so we know the general election match-ups in key contests that will help decide the House…

New York 25: Special Election Possible After Slaughter’s Death

March 23, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

Long-time Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter died March 16, setting up a potential special election in New York’s 25th District. 

The Rochester-based district is rated Solid Democratic, considering Hillary Clinton carried it by 16 points in 2016, while President Barack Obama did so by 19 points in…