Archive

Introducing Inside Elections Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR)

November 1, 2018 · 2:26 PM EDT

By Ryan Matsumoto

Inside Elections’ new statistic, which we’re calling Baseline, captures a clear picture of a congressional district or state’s political performance by accounting for all federal and state executive election results.

Baseline is defined as the trimmed mean of each party’s…

For Handicapping Midterm Races, Old Rules May No Longer Apply

by Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2018 · 7:15 AM EDT

Political handicapping is more than looking at polls and regurgitating who is ahead. Throughout an election cycle, there are signs political handicappers use to understand what is happening at a given moment and to project how races will play out in the weeks or months ahead.

During the endgame,…

2018 Election Preview: Midterms’ Mixed Messages

October 26, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

After two years of prognostication, election results are supposed to bring clarity. But the 2018 results are poised to be a mixed bag, making it difficult to land on a single narrative. 

With President Donald Trump’s mediocre job approval rating…

Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 26, 2018)

October 26, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

Arizona. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. 
Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema held a narrow but distinct advantage over GOP Rep. Martha McSally before and after the August primaries. There is some conflicting data, but that lead appears to have dissolved. And some Republicans believe…

House Report Shorts (Oct. 26, 2018)

October 26, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona’s 1st District (Tom O’Halleran, D, elected 51%). Trump 48%. Air Force veteran Wendy Rogers is running a serious campaign, won a competitive primary, and has no problem tying herself to the President. But her fundraising has been modest and Rogers hasn’t received much outside help against…

Candidate Conversation - Todd Litton (D)

October 26, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

Texas’ 2nd District — Rating: Solid Republican

Interview Date: July 26, 2018

Date of Birth: July 21, 1970; Houston, Texas

Education: Duke (1992 B.A.), Univ. of Texas Law School (1995 JD), Rice Business School (2001 MBA)

Elected Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: Some Democrats…