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Ten Thoughts after Democrats’ Big Wins in Virginia

Nathan L. Gonzales November 8, 2017 · 12:51 PM EST

Everyone take a deep breath. We’re all starving for tangible election results and now we have them. But just as the previous Republican wins in congressional special elections didn’t guarantee the party would have a good 2018, losses on Tuesday night don’t necessarily tell us a Democratic wave in…

Please Don’t Call It a Push Poll: Transgender Edition

Nathan L. Gonzales November 7, 2017 · 4:23 PM EST

Danica Roem and Bob Marshall are facing off in an unusually high-profile race for the Virginia House of Delegates — Roem, a transgender Democrat, is challenging Marshall, a conservative Republican. The race reached a new level in the final weeks when allegations of a so-called push poll came to…

Rating Change: LoBiondo Retirement Makes GOP Seat More Vulnerable

November 7, 2017 · 3:26 PM EST

GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo’s retirement gives Democrats a better opportunity to win New Jersey’s 2nd District. 

Democrats have had their eye on the South Jersey seat for years, particularly after President Barack Obama won the seat by 8 points in 2012. But the party has struggled to find a credible…

Why You Should Focus on Independents from Now to the Midterms

Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2017 · 9:03 AM EDT

In my last column, I wrote about Donald Trump’s job approval ratings among Republicans, Democrats and Independents, noting that his standing among all groups is important. But my primary focus for 2018 should be on Independents, who are likely to be the canary in the coal mine for the midterm…

2017-18 Gubernatorial Overview: Democrats Aim for Statewide Success

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Nathan L. Gonzales October 27, 2017 · 2:30 PM EDT

If you just can’t wait until the midterm elections, Virginia and New Jersey are poised to provide an appetizer ahead of next year’s main course.

Democrats are still searching for their first high-profile win while Donald Trump has been in the Oval Office. Virginia and New Jersey both give them…

2017-18 Gubernatorial Overview (Oct. 27, 2017) Alabama - Illinois

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October 27, 2017 · 2:29 PM EDT

ALABAMA — Kay Ivey (R), assumed governorship April 2017. Feb. 9 filing deadline. June 5 primary. Ivey became governor from her lieutenant governor post after GOP Gov. Robert Bentley resigned under an ethical cloud involving an extramarital affair and improper use of state resources. Ivey, the first…

2017-18 Gubernatorial Overview (Oct. 27, 2017) Iowa - New Mexico

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October 27, 2017 · 2:28 PM EDT

IOWA — Kim Reynolds (R) ascended to office May 2017. March 16 filing deadline. June 5 primary. Reynolds was the lieutenant governor when then-Gov. Terry Branstad became President Trump’s ambassador to China, launching the former state senator to the state’s top post. A former Clarke County…

2017-18 Gubernatorial Overview (Oct. 27, 2017) New York - Wyoming

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October 27, 2017 · 2:27 PM EDT

NEW YORK — Andrew Cuomo (D) elected 2010 (63%), 2014 (54%). The governor looks poised to win a third term on his way to a 2020 presidential bid. It wouldn’t be unusual for Cuomo to draw a primary challenger. Law professor Zephyr Teachout challenged him in 2014 and lost 63-33 percent. Syracuse Mayor…

Arizona Senate: Flake Retires But Race Still a Toss-Up

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October 27, 2017 · 2:26 PM EDT

Sen. Jeff Flake’s announcement shouldn’t have come as a surprise to Inside Elections readers, considering we mentioned the scenario in our Sept. 15 issue.

Rarely does a party prefer an open seat over losing an incumbent. But Flake’s retirement may help the GOP hold his Arizona seat, giving…