Outlook

Democrats have a 233-201 majority, with one Libertarian (Amash). Republicans need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority. Democrats are most likely to maintain control with the most likely outcome range: Democratic net gain of 14-20 seats.

  • Shift Republican
  • Shift Democratic

Currently Safe Seats

Democrat: 210 Republican: 162

Seats in Play

Democrat: 23 New Seats: 0 Republican: 39

Toss-up

Democrat: 5 Republican: 9
AR 2 R Hill
AZ 6 R Schweikert
CA 21 D Cox
CA 25 R M. Garcia
IL 13 R R. Davis
MI 3 I Open Amash
MN 7 D Peterson
NM 2 D Torres Small
NY 11 D M. Rose
NY 2 R Open P. King
OK 5 D Horn
PA 10 R Perry
TX 21 R Roy
TX 22 R Open Olson
VA 5 R Open Riggleman

Tilt Democratic

Democrat: 4 Republican: 9
FL 26 D Mucarsel-Powell
GA 7 R Open Woodall
IN 5 R Open S. Brooks
MN 1 R Hagedorn
MO 2 R Wagner
NE 2 R Bacon
NJ 2 R Van Drew
NY 22 D Brindisi
OH 1 R Chabot
TX 23 R Open Hurd
TX 24 R Open Marchant
UT 4 D McAdams
VA 7 D Spanberger

Lean Democratic

Democrat: 5 Republican: 0
CA 48 D Rouda
IA 1 D Finkenauer
IA 2 D Open Loebsack
IA 3 D Axne
SC 1 D Cunningham

Likely Democratic

Democrat: 9 Republican: 2
AZ 1 D O'Halleran
CA 39 D Cisneros
GA 6 D McBath
NC 2 R Open Holding
NC 6 R Open Walker
NH 1 D Pappas
NJ 7 D Malinowski
NV 3 D S. Lee
OR 4 D DeFazio
TX 7 D Fletcher
VA 2 D Luria

Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 3
CO 3 R Open Tipton
NC 8 R Hudson
NY 24 R Katko

Lean Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 8
FL 15 R Open Spano
MT 1 R Open Gianforte
NC 11 R Open VACANT
NY 1 R Zeldin
PA 1 R Fitzpatrick
TX 10 R McCaul
TX 3 R Taylor
WA 3 R Herrera Beutler

Likely Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 8
AK 1 R Young
CA 50 R VACANT
FL 16 R Buchanan
FL 18 R Mast
MI 6 R Upton
OH 10 R Turner
TX 25 R Williams
TX 6 R Wright