Outlier or Early Warning? Late Iowa Poll Confounds

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 3, 2024 · 4:39 PM EST

It’s never wise to jump to conclusions based on any single poll. But it would be foolish to ignore results from a quality pollster. 

Ann Selzer shocked the political world on Saturday evening with a poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 3 points in Iowa, 47 percent to 44 percent. Trump won the Hawkeye State by 8 points in 2020 and 9 points in 2016 but Selzer is regarded as the polling gold standard in Iowa with a reputation for identifying trends that other pollsters missed. 

Up to this point, Iowa has been nowhere near the list of seven toss-up states that have garnered the vast majority of attention from the candidates, campaigns, and the media. Even Selzer’s previous poll in Iowa, showing Trump ahead of Harris by 4 points in early September, did little to put the state on the political radar. Any talk about the presidential map expanding has come from a confident Trump campaign declaring that Virginia, New Mexico, and New Jersey could be within the former president’s reach. There was little evidence Trump was vulnerable on his right flank. 

While the Selzer survey could be an outlier, her record cannot be ignored. Besides the 2016 Iowa Republican caucuses, Selzer's polls have been remarkably accurate. 

Selzer's final pre-election surveys in key statewide races have been within 3 points or less of the final margin in five of the last six election cycles going back to 2012, according to data compiled by Matthew Klein of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. 

We won’t know until Tuesday night whether the Selzer poll is correct or if it foreshadowed problems for Trump in other states. But, at a minimum, Iowa should be regarded as closer and more competitive than previously thought. We’re shifting our rating from Likely Republican to Tilt Republican.

House Races
Shifting Iowa’s 1st District, represented by Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic and the 3rd District, represented by Republican Zach Nunn from Toss-up to Tilt Republican were two of the most aggressive rating changes we made in the most recent issue of Inside Elections at the end of last week. 

Unfortunately, Selzer does not poll individual congressional races, so an apples-to-apples comparison is not possible. But it’s hard to see how Harris would be ahead by 3 points statewide and not running ahead of Trump in one or both of those competitive districts. In 2020, Trump received 50 percent in the 1st and 49 percent in the 3rd. Between the two incumbents, Nunn is better-positioned to sustain a Trump underperformance at the top of the ticket. 

That being said, without having specific polling between the named candidates, we’ve decided to maintain our ratings in the current Iowa districts. And that includes Iowa’s 2nd District, represented by Republican Ashley Hinson, which is rated as Solid Republican but could be vulnerable if Harris is performing that strong at the top of the ticket. Democrat Sarah Corkery trailed the congresswoman $2 million to $29,000 in available campaign funds on Oct. 16. 

Beyond Iowa
Even if Selzer’s survey is optimistic for Harris, just a shift of a couple points in her direction in Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania would be consequential and likely would be enough for her to win the presidency. 

The Iowa poll may not tell us as much about what’s happening in the other toss-up states in other regions including North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, unless the trend is more about winning women and senior voters by larger margins than it is about regional appeal or even specific to Iowa. 

It could also portend good news for Democratic hopes of maintaining control of the Senate. If Harris pulls closer to Trump in Ohio and only loses by mid-single digits or less, that could be enough to help Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown win re-election. Harris would still need to win the White House and Republicans would probably still need to lose either Texas or Nebraska to offset Democratic Sen. Jon Tester’s loss in Montana, but Brown winning wouldn’t hurt.

The Selzer poll also makes me wonder whether I was too dismissive of Democrat Lucas Kunce’s recent survey in neighboring Missouri, which showed him trailing GOP Sen. Josh Hawley by just 3 points. Trump won the Show Me State by 19 and 15 points in the last two elections, so it’s still a long-shot, but those are the sorts of things that go through my head when opening my mind to possibilities.