House News & Analysis

Outlier or Early Warning? Late Iowa Poll Confounds

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 3, 2024 · 4:39 PM EST

It’s never wise to jump to conclusions based on any single poll. But it would be foolish to ignore results from a quality pollster. 

Ann Selzer shocked the political world on Saturday evening with a poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 3 points…

Podcast Episode 35: Pre-Election Projections w/ Kirk Bado of National Journal

November 1, 2024 · 7:51 PM EDT

Nathan, Jacob and Kirk Bado of National Journal’s Hotline break down the fights for the Senate, House, and White House in the final pre-election episode of the 2024 elections.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential…

Pennsylvania 8 Poll: Carry On, Cartwright

by Jacob Rubashkin October 29, 2024 · 5:08 PM EDT

Northeast Pennsylvania’s Matt Cartwright is the only Democrat in Congress to win two elections while Donald Trump carried his district at the top of the ticket. 

A new Noble Predictive Insights poll conducted for Inside Elections shows Cartwright, who represents Pennsylvania’s 8th District, is well-positioned to continue that streak in…

Podcast Episode 34: Race Ratings, Presidential Debates, Civility in America w/ Judy Woodruff

October 25, 2024 · 9:41 PM EDT

Nathan and Jacob reveal the latest batch of House and Senate race rating changes and talk with legendary political journalist Judy Woodruff of the PBS Newshour about the 2024 election, prepping for Election Night, moderating debates and the lack of civility in America. 

Listen to the podcast on…

House Report Shorts (October 18, 2024)

October 18, 2024 · 2:28 PM EDT

Alaska.
At-Large District. Mary Peltola, D, re-elected 55%. Trump 53%.
Both parties agreed a few weeks ago that this race had gotten very tight, but the consensus ended there. Republicans now believe they have the advantage while Democrats say they have righted the ship. Between the state’s ranked-choice voting…

Podcast Episode 33: Sleeper House Poll, Senate Ratings, House Races w/ Erin Covey of Cook Political

October 17, 2024 · 2:28 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin unveil the latest Inside Elections/Noble Predictive Insights poll in a sleeper race in Arizona’s 2nd District and discuss race rating changes in the Nevada and Arizona Senate races before breaking down the fight for the House majority with Erin Covey of The Cook Political Report…

Arizona 2 Poll: Sleeper Race Awakens

by Jacob Rubashkin October 17, 2024 · 11:00 AM EDT

Arizona voters already faced a gauntlet of competitive races this fall, from a toss-up presidential contest to a high-profile Senate race and two of the most expensive House races in the country.

But another election may be asserting itself in the closing weeks of the cycle, according to new polling…

House Report Shorts (October 10, 2024)

by Jacob Rubashkin October 10, 2024 · 2:28 PM EDT

Alabama.
2nd District (Mobile, Montgomery, and eastern Black Belt) Open; Barry Moore, R, running in 1st District. Biden 56%. National Democratic strategists are keeping an eye on this redrawn seat, and it was no accident that nominee Shomari Figures was given a coveted DNC speaking slot in August, but…

Podcast Episode 32: North Carolina Poll, VP Debate, Election Models w/ Nathaniel Rakich of 538

October 3, 2024 · 3:13 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin unveil the latest Inside Elections/Noble Predictive Insights poll in North Carolina’s 1st District and analyze the vice presidential debate between Sen. J.D. Vance and Gov. Tim Walz before discussing election polls, models, and election forecasting with Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight.

Listen to the…

House Report Shorts (September 26, 2024)

September 26, 2024 · 2:28 PM EDT

Alaska.
At-Large District. Mary Peltola, D, re-elected 55%. Trump 53%.
Republican Nick Begich struggled to fundraise for much of the primary, and now outside groups are coming in to bolster him with positive advertising ahead of the general election. The NRCC is also airing negative ads against Peltola, while…