House News & Analysis

New Mexico 1: The Land of a Special Election

by Jacob Rubashkin January 22, 2021 · 2:29 PM EST

Rep. Deb Haaland made history in 2018 as one of the first two Native American women ever to be elected to Congress. In 2021, she’ll likely make history again as the first ever Native American cabinet secretary. The Democratic congresswoman from New Mexico’s 1st District has been nominated by President…

Louisiana 2 Special: The Next New Member

by Jacob Rubashkin January 22, 2021 · 2:27 PM EST

The special election to succeed Democratic Rep. Cedric Richmond in Louisiana’s 2nd District has come into focus as the wide field of potential candidates narrows and national figures turn their attention to what may be the first special election of the Biden era.

Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards scheduled the…

Election Predictions Look Different (and Better) Now that All the Races are Over

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 22, 2021 · 9:09 AM EST

More than two months later, the 2020 elections are still handing out lessons. The latest: Don’t judge election projections until all the results have hatched.

Lost in the aftermath of the siege on the U.S. Capitol was the fact that Democrats won two Senate runoffs in Georgia. Not only does…

Why Our 2022 Ratings Aren’t Imminent

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 23, 2020 · 8:31 AM EST

We’re putting a pause on our first Senate and House ratings for the 2022 cycle, but it’s not for the reason you might be thinking. After whiffing on the House projection this year as President Donald Trump overperformed expectations, I floated the idea of forgoing race ratings in elections…

Report Shorts (December 18, 2020)

December 18, 2020 · 2:27 PM EST

California Dreamin’
Senate. Soon to be vacant due to Kamala Harris’s election as vice president.
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom will appoint a successor to Harris, and this seat was already scheduled for an election in 2022. Various constituencies are reportedly lobbying Newsom for their preferred candidates, in the hopes…

31,751 Votes: How Close Races Decide the Battle for the House

by Jacob Rubashkin December 17, 2020 · 1:53 PM EST

More than 158 million voters cast ballots in the November election. And while Joe Biden won the Electoral College (by a margin Republicans called a landslide four years ago) and Democrats maintained control of the House, the emerging narrative is one of Republican resurgence and resilience…

What Makes a Race Competitive?

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 16, 2020 · 2:46 PM EST

What defines a competitive race and who deems it so? 

In the final months of the campaign, Oregon’s 4th District was home to one of hottest races in the country. Republicans and Democrats poured millions of dollars into the contest between Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio and Republican Alek Skarlatos, which…

Louisiana 2 Special: Brawl on the Blue Bayou

by Jacob Rubashkin December 3, 2020 · 2:29 PM EST

President-elect Joe Biden’s decision to bring Democratic Rep. Cedric Richmond with him to the White House as a senior adviser sets up what is likely to be the first special election of 2021.

With Democrats’ House majority much diminished, even a handful of vacancies could make legislating fraught with difficulty…

How Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Could Complicate GOP Chances in 2022

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 2, 2020 · 4:22 PM EST

After President Donald Trump boosted down-ballot Republicans in 2020, the GOP might be excited about his reported plans to avenge his loss by immediately beginning a race for the presidency in 2024. But while he delivered the White House once before and has shown a unique ability to consistently outperform…

2020 Election Preview: Bracing for History

October 28, 2020 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

No matter what happens, the 2020 elections will be historic. With impeachment, a pandemic, economic crisis, a national conversation about racism, and the death of a Supreme Court icon, this election cycle is already unforgettable, even before knowing the actual results.  

While it’s…