House News & Analysis

New Jersey 2: GOP House Open Seat Shifts to Likely Democratic

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 13, 2018 · 11:05 AM EDT

Sometimes political handicapping can be difficult. Shifting a well-liked Democratic senator in North Dakota, who has won a close and competitive race previously, to Tilts Republican from Toss-Up wasn’t an easy decision. But Republican Seth Grossman is making it easy for political analysts.

The former Atlantic County Freeholder won the…

Winter has Come for the Democratic Party

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 6, 2018 · 2:26 PM EDT

You can explain away 10-term Rep. Joe Crowley’s loss in the Democratic primary to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by pointing to demographic changes in the district or campaign missteps by the incumbent, but that obscures a larger trend. Similar to the dynamic in the Republican Party, the power of the Democratic establishment…

Candidate Conversation - John Chrin (R)

July 6, 2018 · 2:25 PM EDT

Pennsylvania’s 8th District - Rating: Change to Lean Democratic

Interview Date: June 12, 2018

Date of Birth: May 15, 1963; Fountain Hill, Penn.

Education: Lehigh (1985 BA, 1986 BS); Columbia (MBA 1988)

Elected Office: None; First run for office. 

Current Outlook: Matt Cartwright was first elected in 2012 by running…

Candidate Conversation - Hallie Thompson (D)

July 6, 2018 · 2:23 PM EDT

Missouri’s 4th District — Rating: Solid Republican 

Interview Date: June 14, 2018

Date of Birth: Sept. 6, 1989; Springfield, Missouri

Education: Univ. of Missouri (2011, current PHd student)

Elected Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: Any Democratic challenger would struggle in this west-central Missouri district, considering Hillary Clinton…

Candidate Conversation - Denver Riggleman (R)

July 6, 2018 · 2:22 PM EDT

Virginia’s 5th District - Rating: Likely Republican

Interview Date: June 20, 2018

Date of Birth: March 17, 1970; Manassas, Va.

Education: Univ. of Virginia (1998)

Elected Office: None; Ran for governor in 2017

Current Outlook: Democrat Leslie Cockburn was set to face GOP Rep. Tom Garrett in November, but the…

The Wrong Fight at the Wrong Time for the GOP

by Stuart Rothenberg June 29, 2018 · 11:34 AM EDT

You need to hand it to President Donald Trump, his entire administration and his party. It takes more than a little chutzpah to act in a way that seems callous to the concerns of children. First, it was gun control. Now it is immigration in general, and separating children from…

10 One-Liners after Tuesday’s Primaries

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 27, 2018 · 2:18 AM EDT

There’s plenty to digest from Tuesday’s primaries in New York, Maryland, Utah and beyond, but here are a few initial thoughts encapsulated in some run-on sentences.

Crowley’s loss. North Carolina Rep. Robert Pittenger’s primary loss last month wasn’t a surprise (considering his narrow win in 2016), and South Carolina…

GOP Poll: Donnelly in Position to Win in Indiana

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 15, 2018 · 10:25 AM EDT

After defeating a flawed candidate in 2012 and President Donald Trump winning Indiana in 2016 by nearly 20 points, Sen. Joe Donnelly is widely regarded as one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators in the country. But don’t count him out yet, according to a new Republican poll.

Former state…

Kentucky 6: Is There a Swing District in The Bluegrass State?

by Leah Askarinam June 14, 2018 · 4:00 PM EDT

It’s only been eight years since voters in Lexington sent a Democrat to Congress. But it feels like an eternity after Donald Trump won Kentucky by nearly 30 points in 2016.

Many of the 77 House districts rated as vulnerable this year can be sorted into a few key categories:…

California House: Parties Regroup after Primary

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 14, 2018 · 3:59 PM EDT

Despite the breathless analysis in the run up to California’s Top Two primary, Democrats successfully navigated complicated races and have a nominee in each of their targeted House races. 

Getting locked out of the general election by not finishing in the top two would have been a disappointment and an…