House News & Analysis

Why We’re Not Releasing 2020 Race Ratings Yet

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 21, 2018 · 8:30 AM EST

I love elections, particularly congressional races, but I’m just not in a hurry to jump to 2020. And I’m completely fine with holding off on releasing our race ratings until next year.

If I didn’t like elections, I would probably need to take a long look at doing something else…

House Primaries on the Horizon for Democrats in 2020

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 20, 2018 · 9:30 AM EST

We already know the Democratic presidential primary is going to be crowded and crazy as a few dozen candidates battle for the right to take on President Donald Trump.

But at least a handful of 2020 House primaries are also on the horizon for Democrats as the party fights over…

North Carolina: Blue Wave Steered Clear of ‘Blue Moon’ Election

by Leah Askarinam December 14, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST

Democrats gained at least 40 House seats in races across the country, but the wave’s course veered from two key states: Ohio and North Carolina.

Looking at top-of-the-ballot results, it’s no surprise that Democrats failed to chip into Ohio’s House delegation. Democratic performance statewide indicated a fundamental problem for the…

Expect Record Turnout in 2020

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 13, 2018 · 2:53 PM EST

With the 2018 elections coming to an end, it’s clear that voters set a modern record for turnout in a midterm. And there’s no reason to believe voters won’t set another record two years from now.

According to the United States Election Project, turnout this year was nearly 50 percent…

Are White Evangelicals the Saviors of the GOP?

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 12, 2018 · 3:37 PM EST

Amid all the talk about shifting demographics and political changes over the last decade, one key voting group has remained virtually unchanged: white evangelicals.

According to one evangelical leader, a record number of white evangelicals voted in the 2018 midterms after an inspired turnout effort.

“This is the most…

The 2018 Midterms as the Buffet Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 3, 2018 · 8:55 AM EST

When I was a kid in small-town Oregon, my family would occasionally go to King’s Table, and my sister and I would get free rein at the buffet.

I became famous in my own family for my condiment salad — an impressive collection of bacon bits, croutons, shredded cheese, sunflower…

Goodbye Midterm Dynamic, Hello Presidential Politics

by Stuart Rothenberg November 29, 2018 · 9:15 AM EST

Midterm elections and presidential cycles have such different dynamics that the two should almost never be discussed together. That will not prevent people from doing so, but they should resist the temptation. 

Midterms tend to be referendums on the incumbent president, while each presidential election is a choice between nominees.

2018 Midterms Review: Back to Normal

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 20, 2018 · 10:59 AM EST

When Donald Trump was elected president of the United States there was a temptation to declare that none of the rules of politics mattered anymore. But the 2018 midterm elections proved that the fundamentals of running campaigns in this country are still intact.

In many ways, 2018 was a classic…

A Few Moves on the Eve of the Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 5, 2018 · 10:46 AM EST

On the eve of Election Day 2018, the battleground is largely set, but GOP prospects have dimmed in at least one suburban seat and couple Democratic longshots should be taken more seriously 

The addition of Alaska’s At-Large District and South Carolina’s 1st District brings the total number of vulnerable Republican…

2018 Election Preview: Embrace the Uncertainty

November 1, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

Two years is long enough to forget how crazy the last week of the elections is. From rumors of surprise races to breaking news events with unknown political consequences, each cycle often includes a fast and furious finish.

In the midst of uncertainty…