Governor News & Analysis

Virginia Governor: Rating Change

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 29, 2021 · 5:30 PM EDT

Even though this fall's race for governor in Virginia is just one race in one state, it will determine the initial narrative of the midterm elections next year.

Former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe has had a consistent advantage over Republican Glenn Youngkin in the commonwealth, but some Democratic strategists are…

The One Thing Biden Can’t Afford to Lose

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 17, 2021 · 11:48 AM EDT

The next presidential election is more than three years away, and even the midterms won’t happen for another 14 months. Yet President Joe Biden could be on the brink of losing something costly: the benefit of the doubt. 

While I’m on the record as skeptical that Afghanistan will be…

Recalling the California Recall

by Jacob Rubashkin September 15, 2021 · 1:52 PM EDT

In the end, it wasn’t even close.

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California easily turned back the effort to remove him from office on Tuesday. With two-thirds of the vote counted already, 64 percent of voters opted to keep the first-term incumbent, compared to just 36 percent who wanted him…

California Governor Recall: Advantage Newsom in Final Stretch

by Ryan Matsumoto September 14, 2021 · 9:45 AM EDT

It’s Election Day, but more than eight million Californians have already voted in the recall election. Since our last update two weeks ago, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has strengthened his position and is increasingly likely to defeat the recall attempt.

The FiveThirtyEight polling average

California Governor Recall: Media Spending Reflects GOP Challenge

by Christopher Sebastian September 13, 2021 · 1:03 PM EDT

Christopher Sebastian is a Senior Analyst for Kantar/CMAG.

The complicated logistics of the California recall process created a noticeable divide in the messaging and broadcast strategies of Democrats and Republicans.

While those against the Sept. 14 recall only needed to convince Californians to show up to the polls and vote…

California Governor Recall: Down to the Wire

by Ryan Matsumoto August 27, 2021 · 2:26 PM EDT

Voters across California are already beginning to vote in what may be the most important election of the year. The attempted recall of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is poised to be a blockbuster event that may have ramifications well beyond the Golden State.

How the Recall Works
The Sept.…

New York Governor: Still Solid Democratic

by Jacob Rubashkin August 16, 2021 · 9:06 AM EDT

Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s surprise resignation is already sending shockwaves through the New York political world, from Albany to New York City.

But one thing the three-term incumbent’s exit doesn’t change is our outlook on the state’s 2022 gubernatorial contest, which remains Solid Democratic.

If anything, Cuomo’s decision to step…

California Governor Recall: Taking It Seriously

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 6, 2021 · 2:28 PM EDT

When it comes to the political fallout from the coronavirus, most politicians have the luxury of time. But not Gavin Newsom. 

The Democratic governor of California is facing a potential recall on Sept. 14, while the vast majority of elected officials at the federal, state, and local level don’t have…

Virginia Governor: Old Dominion, New Election

by Jacob Rubashkin June 18, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

It has been a quiet year for elections so far, with a handful of special congressional races producing status quo outcomes that barely registered in the political consciousness.

But that quiet could be coming to a close as Virginia gears up for November, when it will host the most expensive…

Gubernatorial Updates (June 18, 2021)

June 18, 2021 · 2:28 PM EDT

ARIZONA. Open; Doug Ducey (R), term-limited. Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, the highest ranking elected Democrat in the state, is running to succeed Ducey in what will be one of 2022’s most competitive gubernatorial contests. Hobbs, who saw her national profile grow in the wake of the state GOP’s “audit”…