Where Do We Go From Here?
Based on everything else that has happened this year, this is a fitting end to the 2020 elections, as the fights for the White House and Senate continue on past Election Day.
The scenario of extended uncertainty shouldn’t be a surprise, since the media has been talking about the need for patience for months. But walking through the scenario in real time is jarring.
No matter what the either candidate says, the race for the White House is not over, as neither candidate has secured the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win.
Joe Biden’s shortest path to victory has always been Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and that path remains intact with millions of ballots left to be counted. That said, winning Arizona and Nebraska’s 2nd District means Biden can win without Pennsylvania as long as he wins Michigan and Wisconsin. North Carolina, where President Donald Trump leads and needs to win, is still outstanding as well, as is Georgia.
If all of the legal votes are counted, you might rather be Biden than Trump. But this is obviously a very close race that either of them can win.
No matter who wins the presidential race, it’s clear that the vast majority of the polling under-estimated Trump’s support once again. For months, we’ve been saying that it would take dozens of pollsters, partisan and nonpartisan, independently making the same methodological mistake for the outcome to be different than what we were projecting. And that is apparently what happened.…
