2022 House Overview (May 20, 2022): Republicans Poised for Majority

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin

With less than six months before Election Day, Republicans remain well-positioned to win the House majority.

Midterm elections are typically a performance review on the sitting president and President Joe Biden’s job rating is negative and static. According to the latest FiveThirtyEight average, 41 percent of Americans approve of the job the president is doing compared to 53 percent who disapprove.

That’s a similar position to where he’s been for months, and there’s little evidence Biden’s standing will dramatically improve between now and November 8. Historic events such as the confirmation of the first Black woman to the Supreme Court and the Russian invasion of Ukraine didn’t affect Biden’s job rating, which means it’s unlikely future events such as a historic Supreme Court decision on abortion will be political game-changers.

Pervasive economic issues from inflation to high gas prices to supply chain issues, as well as crime, continue to dominate the conversation and voters are poised to punish Democrats in power for the lack of progress on solutions.

The redistricting process hasn’t yet run its course through the courts, but neither party emerged with a dramatic edge.

While Biden’s poor standing sets the stage for a national election with down ballot consequences, Democrats will try to run dozens of individual races in which their battle-tested incumbents can weather the storm by discrediting GOP candidates. Some…

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