Wisconsin Senate: GOP Puts Hope in Hovde

Overshadowed by better GOP pickup opportunities in Montana and Ohio, and flashier candidates in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, Wisconsin’s Senate race has flown under the radar this cycle.

But two-term Democrat Tammy Baldwin’s quest for re-election is quietly shaping up to be the toughest test of her political career, and the outcome — while it probably won’t determine which party holds the majority — will shape how large that majority is.

The Badger State was, for all of last year, the most glaring recruitment hole for the GOP. But Republicans finally landed a candidate to take on Baldwin, and in keeping with the national party’s Senate strategy this cycle, it’s an uber-wealthy businessman with limited political experience, who can fund much of his own race but also has some obvious vulnerabilities.

The Lay of the Land
When it comes to politics, Wisconsin might be the most evenly divided state in the country. Its Baseline score, D+1, is the narrowest of any state. It’s one of just five states represented by both a Democrat and a Republican in the Senate.

The two parties are constantly battling for control of the state. The last governor to succeed another governor from his own party in an election was in 1962 (several governors have ascended from the lieutenant governorship due to a vacancy).

Over the past decade, the state played host to four nationally watched gubernatorial races featuring polarizing Republican Scott Walker — he won the first three before losing…

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