A Potential Split Decision in the 2024 Elections
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
Republicans and Democrats should be prepared to be energized and saddened by the 2024 election results. With Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket, the race against former President Donald Trump is close again. And the fights for control of the Senate and House are close as well. That means a split decision is possible in November.
A Harris victory coupled with Republican control of the Senate is within reason. Democrats might even add on a new House majority and could still lose the Senate. It’s also possible Republicans sweep all three. But if there is indeed a split decision, both parties will declare a mandate and decline to address deeper party problems that could inhibit future growth.
Presidential
The presidential race could go either way. The shape of the new battlefield still slightly favors Harris as it veers more into GOP territory. But the vice president is virtually even with Trump in the core swing states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The debate probably didn’t sway dedicated supporters but we’ll know in a few days whether it persuaded many independents. Harris is rated with an advantage in states combining for 226 electoral college votes compared to 219 for Trump. It looks like Harris has the narrowest advantage on the road to 270, but it wouldn’t take much for the dynamic to shift.
Senate
Republicans are likely to gain 1-3…
