Eleven Things I Think I Think After the Georgia and South Carolina Special Elections

Nathan L. Gonzales June 20, 2017 · 11:38 PM EDT

One of the best parts about covering elections is that there is a final result. What seems like an endless stream of campaigning and ads and analysis finally comes to an end every time with vote tallies to digest until the next round. 
 
President Donald Trump and the Republicans continue to play with electoral fire, but pulled off two more special election victories; this time in Georgia’s 6th District and South Carolina’s 5th District. As with the previous results in Kansas and Montana, there are enough tidbits in each result to formulate whatever conclusion helps you sleep better at night. 
 
Inspired once again by Peter King (no, not the New York Republican) and his team at Sports Illustrated’s Monday Morning Quarterback, I decided to jot down Eleven Things I Think I Think after the Georgia and South Carolina election results. 
 
1. The House majority was at risk before the Georgia special election and it’s at risk after the Georgia special election. This is just based on history. The president’s party has lost seats in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections, with an average of 33 seats lost in those 18 cycles. Democrats need to gain 24 seats next year for a majority. If that’s not convincing enough, veteran GOP pollster Glen Bolger pointed out that presidents with a job…

Almost a Must-Win for Democrats in Georgia 6

Stuart Rothenberg June 12, 2017 · 9:30 AM EDT

Democratic strategists may hate the idea that they must win the June 20 special election in Georgia’s 6th District, but that doesn’t make it any less true.

Jon Ossoff’s defeat would not tell us what will happen seventeen months from now in the 2018 midterms any more than Republican Tim Burns’…

Four (Almost) Famous Congressional Candidates

Nathan L. Gonzales June 9, 2017 · 9:25 AM EDT

The political media went into a frenzy last cycle when “Little House on the Prairie” actress and “Dancing With the Stars” contestant Melissa Gilbert decided to run for Congress in Michigan. Even though the Democrat eventually dropped out before she matched up against Republican Rep. Mike Bishop in…

A Harbaugh Elected in Ohio? You’ll Know It’s a Wave

Nathan L. Gonzales June 5, 2017 · 8:46 AM EDT

Next year, everyone will publish election guides explaining which races to watch to figure out the winds of the midterms and predict if a wave is on the horizon. But if you only have time to watch one race, watch Ohio’s 7th District.

On Thursday, former Navy pilot Ken Harbaugh, a Democrat,…

The GOP’s Political Gamble on the Environment

Stuart Rothenberg June 4, 2017 · 8:00 AM EDT

While activists on both sides of the aisle and both ends of the ideological spectrum argue about whether President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris accord is a good idea, the political risks of that decision are undeniable.

The president’s announcement is likely to elevate the salience of…