California 25: Can Garcia Win the Battle and the War?

by Jacob Rubashkin May 8, 2020 · 2:30 PM EDT

Republicans are poised to win back a Democratic leaning district in a special election, but what will it really say about their chances in November?

In 2018, non-profit executive Katie Hill scored one of the midterm’s more surprising victories when she unseated two-term GOP Rep. Steve Knight. It…

Maine 2: Good as Golden

by Jacob Rubashkin May 8, 2020 · 2:29 PM EDT

While every member of Congress likes to think their district is unique, Democratic Rep. Jared Golden may have the best argument for Maine’s 2nd. 

This rural district, the easternmost of all 435 and the largest in area this side of the Mississippi, has always marched to the beat of its own…

Candidate Conversation: Jim Marchant (R)

by Jacob Rubashkin May 8, 2020 · 2:28 PM EDT

Nevada’s 4th District — Rating: Solid Democratic

Interview Date: April 29, 2020 (via Google Meet)

Date of Birth: May 28, 1956; Gainesville, Florida

Education: Troy University (1978)

Elected Office: State Assembly (former)

Current Outlook: Marchant is a top contender for the GOP…

The Senate is in Play, You Know

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 8, 2020 · 2:27 PM EDT

It only took about six months, but the country is waking up to the fact that there’s more than a presidential race this year and the Senate majority is at stake in November. But this isn’t a surprise to Inside Elections readers.

“With President Donald Trump struggling to recreate his 2016…

Six Months from Election Day, Expect the Expected

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 7, 2020 · 2:56 PM EDT

Anything can happen in November. At least that’s what we’re supposed to say. But is it really true?

Even in the middle of a global pandemic and after a historic impeachment process, the political environment hasn’t changed dramatically over the last year and a half. The coronavirus has crippled…

Presidential Snapshot in Time (May 1, 2020)

by Bradley Wascher May 1, 2020 · 12:15 PM EDT

With the Democratic primary in the rearview mirror, we can focus on the matchup between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden with a clear conscience.

Over the next six months, there will be a flurry of head-to-head polls, and handicapping the general election will assuredly rely upon public…

Michigan 3: Amash Exit Makes Seat Less Vulnerable

April 29, 2020 · 3:47 PM EDT

There’s no love lost between Justin Amash and House Republicans, but the Michigan congressman gave the GOP a parting gift with his run for president.

Amash’s departure from the Republican Party last year decreased the number of seats Republicans currently control in the House by one and increased…

Likely New Members of the 117th Congress (April 29, 2020)

by Jacob Rubashkin April 29, 2020 · 11:03 AM EDT

Predicting election outcomes can be a fraught business. You don’t have to look further than the 2016 presidential race to see that. 

But for some races, one candidate has such an advantage -- due to the constituency’s partisan lean, candidate quality, or other factors -- that their path to…

COVID-19 Just Latest Challenge for Health Care Polling

by Bradley Wascher April 27, 2020 · 11:45 AM EDT

We are in rarely charted territory, but not for the most obvious reason. With the COVID-19 pandemic having upended every facet of our society, regular public polling data is now being used as both a measure of public opinion and a lagging indicator of economic and epidemiological trends.