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Iowa Senate: Franken Poll Finds Tied Race

by Jacob Rubashkin May 16, 2022 · 3:33 PM EDT

A new poll of the Democratic primary for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat suggests that the contest between former Rep. Abby Finkenauer and retired Admiral/2020 Senate primary runner-up Michael Franken has closed to an even race.

The survey, conducted by Change Research for the Franken campaign and fielded…

What Happened in West Virginia and Nebraska Primaries

by Jacob Rubashkin May 12, 2022 · 10:11 AM EDT

Tuesday saw voters in West Virginia and Nebraska head to the polls to pick nominees for this fall’s midterm elections. It was also the latest battery of tests of the strength of Donald Trump’s endorsement, and one that produced mixed results for the former president. But none of the results of the…

Colorado Senate: Centennial Showdown

by Jacob Rubashkin May 6, 2022 · 2:30 PM EDT

If you’re looking for a place to measure the size of a GOP wave or a state where a Supreme Court decision on abortion could make an impact, look at Colorado. 

The agreed-upon Senate battlefield consists of seven or eight states, half held by Democrats and half held by Republicans.

But President…

Texas 34 Special: (Rio) Grande Opportunity

by Jacob Rubashkin May 6, 2022 · 2:29 PM EDT

With all the focus on the November midterm elections, Republicans are hoping their march to the majority starts a few months earlier, in Texas. 

In 2020, Republicans were surprised and energized by significant gains among Latino voters across the country. Nowhere was that more obvious than in…

First Thoughts from Indiana, Ohio Primary Results

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 4, 2022 · 11:04 AM EDT

After a long break since the early races in Texas at the beginning of March, primary season is back with Indiana and Ohio. Here are a few results worth noting:

Ohio Senate. (Open; Rob Portman, R, not seeking re-election). Author J.D. Vance won the GOP nomination after a late surge following an…

Ohio Redistricting Redux: Maps, For Now

by Jacob Rubashkin April 22, 2022 · 12:35 PM EDT

Ohio’s redistricting process for the 2022 midterms appears to have ended as it began: messily.

After a tumultuous process that saw the state legislature and a backup commission fail to (or even make a good-faith attempt to) pass bipartisan maps as required by a new state law passed by voters in…

2022 House Ratings (April 22, 2022)

April 22, 2022 · 12:34 PM EDT

Connecticut Redistricting: Testing the Edges of the Battlefield

by Jacob Rubashkin April 20, 2022 · 3:12 PM EDT

In a sea of uncertainty, some things are easy to project, such as the redistricting process in Connecticut. 

For the third time in as many redistricting cycles, Connecticut’s Supreme Court had to step in to draw new congressional maps after both the state legislature and a backup commission failed…

Alaska At-Large Special: Frontier Fiasco

by Jacob Rubashkin April 14, 2022 · 2:30 PM EDT

The death of Republican Don Young, Alaska’s sole congressman and the longest-serving member of the House of Representatives, has set off what is already proving to be the most crowded, unpredictable special election in recent memory.

Young first came to Congress 49 years ago, in a 1973 special…