Insiders See Democratic House Gains of 30-45 seats

by Stuart Rothenberg March 22, 2018 · 3:15 PM EDT

Seven and a half months before the midterm elections, the combination of attitudinal and behavioral evidence leads to a single conclusion: The Democrats are very likely to win control of the House in November.

Just as important, Republican and Democratic campaign strategists also agree that an…

Illinois Primaries: Ratings Changes in Two Races

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 21, 2018 · 9:30 AM EDT

The Illinois primaries are in the books, setting the stage for an important set of congressional elections in November. ;

Assuming Democrat Conor Lamb is certified as the winner of the special election in…

Pennsylvania 18: A Red Flag for the GOP

by Stuart Rothenberg March 16, 2018 · 9:07 AM EDT

The results in the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District confirm problems for Republicans.

The size of the Democratic general election wave is still unclear, but something is happening. Districts won comfortably by President Donald Trump in 2016 are more competitive now, which suggests…

12 Thoughts Without Even Knowing Who Won in Pennsylvania

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 14, 2018 · 12:10 AM EDT

The special election race for Pennsylvania's 18th District is too close to call, but many of the takeaways are the same, no matter if Democrat Conor Lamb or Republican Rick Saccone ultimately prevails. 

There will be plenty of hot takes and takeaways about the impact of President Donald Trump on…

Why the Gun Issue Has Shifted (It’s Not What You Think)

by Stuart Rothenberg March 13, 2018 · 9:07 AM EDT

The gun debate has shifted dramatically. Suddenly, it looks as if the issue will benefit Democrats in November, not Republicans.

The reason for the shift doesn’t rest primarily on the intelligence and commitment of the students of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, although…

Indiana Senate: Donnelly Against the Crowd

by Leah Askarinam March 9, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST

Most Republicans and Democrats seem equally concerned about their chances in the Indiana Senate race. 

Indiana elected exclusively Republicans to statewide offices in 2016 and voted for President Donald Trump by 19 points, which should perturb Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly. But Donnelly has mostly…