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2020 Senate Overview (July 10, 2020): Democrats Poised to Control the Senate

July 10, 2020 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

The Senate has been in play for at least nine months, but Democratic chances of winning control of the chamber have improved significantly in the last few weeks. 

As Joe Biden has grown a significant lead over President Donald Trump in the race for the…

2020 Senate Overview (July 10, 2020): Alabama - Kansas

July 10, 2020 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). July 14 GOP Runoff (was March 31). Republicans will finally select their nominee next week in the runoff between former Auburn head football coach Tommy Tuberville (who finished first in the primary with 33 percent) and former Sen. Jeff Sessions…

2020 Senate Overview (July 10, 2020): Kentucky - New Mexico

July 10, 2020 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kentucky. Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%) and 2014 (56%). A sleepy Democratic primary victory by veteran Amy McGrath turned into a nationally-watched affair as state Rep. Charles Booker surged in the final weeks with endorsements from Sen.…

2020 Senate Overview (July 10, 2020): North Carolina - Wyoming

July 10, 2020 · 2:27 PM EDT

North Carolina. Thom Tillis (R), elected 2014 (49%). The good news for Tillis is that he’s been consistently locked in a competitive race in a presidential battleground state that Trump won by 3.5 points in 2016, and the president has been competitive with Biden for most of the cycle. The bad news…

Presidential Snapshot in Time: July 10, 2020

by Bradley Wascher July 10, 2020 · 2:26 PM EDT

Independence Day 2020 was a time of reflection for some, a time of celebration for others, and time off for pollsters. Relatively few new polls were released in the days surrounding the holiday, but available surveys still suggest a wide gap between Joe Biden and President Donald Trump.

In…

Should Down-Ballot Republicans Ready a ‘No Blank Check’ Strategy?

by Stuart Rothenberg July 10, 2020 · 8:45 AM EDT

Weeks before the 1996 general election, operatives at the Republican National Committee and National Republican Congressional Committee urged GOP campaigns to adopt a last-minute, new strategy.

As New York Times reporter Adam Clymer wrote, they urged “their party’s Congressional candidates…

No, DC Statehood Won’t Lead to Permanent Senate Majority for Democrats

by Jacob Rubashkin July 6, 2020 · 10:24 AM EDT

Any conversation about DC statehood will inevitably include Republicans predicting a permanent influx of Democrats on Capitol Hill. But history reveals that two additional Democratic senators would rarely have made a difference in control of the Senate over the last half century.

In late…

The Russian Bounty Story is Not the Reset the Trump Campaign Needs

by Jacob Rubashkin July 1, 2020 · 11:07 AM EDT

While President Donald Trump’s re-election is at its most precarious point yet, another hot issue is moving into the conversation which could delay or prevent him from regaining his footing. 

Trump has slipped significantly in the polls, both nationwide and in crucial swing states, against…