Archive

Arizona 2 Poll: Sleeper Race Awakens

by Jacob Rubashkin October 17, 2024 · 11:00 AM EDT

Arizona voters already faced a gauntlet of competitive races this fall, from a toss-up presidential contest to a high-profile Senate race and two of the most expensive House races in the country.

But another election may be asserting itself in the closing weeks of the cycle, according to new…

The 2024 Elections are Comically Close

October 10, 2024 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

With less than a month to go, one thing is clear: this election is very close. 

In the fight for the White House, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are within a couple points of each other in all seven swing states. Based on the…

Senate Report Shorts (October 10, 2024)

by Jacob Rubashkin October 10, 2024 · 2:29 PM EDT

Arizona. Open; Kyrsten Sinema (I) not seeking re-election. Former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remain locked in a close fight in the presidential race, but GOP former local news anchor/2022 gubernatorial Kari Lake is consistently running behind Trump. Since it’s unlikely…

House Report Shorts (October 10, 2024)

by Jacob Rubashkin October 10, 2024 · 2:28 PM EDT

Alabama.
2nd District (Mobile, Montgomery, and eastern Black Belt) Open; Barry Moore, R, running in 1st District. Biden 56%. National Democratic strategists are keeping an eye on this redrawn seat, and it was no accident that nominee Shomari Figures was given a coveted DNC speaking slot in August,…

Gubernatorial Report Shorts (October 10, 2024)

October 10, 2024 · 2:27 PM EDT

Indiana. Open; Eric Holcomb (R) term-limited. Both the Democratic and Republican Governors Associations are investing in this race: $600,00 from the DGA to Democrat Jennifer McCormick and $750,000 from the RGA to Sen. Mike Braun. The Braun campaign suffered two missteps last week, airing a campaign…

Podcast Episode 32: North Carolina Poll, VP Debate, Election Models w/ Nathaniel Rakich of 538

October 3, 2024 · 3:13 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin unveil the latest Inside Elections/Noble Predictive Insights poll in North Carolina’s 1st District and analyze the vice presidential debate between Sen. J.D. Vance and Gov. Tim Walz before discussing election polls, models, and election forecasting with Nathaniel…

North Carolina 1 Poll: Down Ballot Democrats Ahead

by Jacob Rubashkin October 3, 2024 · 2:45 PM EDT

North Carolina’s one remaining swing district looks headed for a photo finish at the presidential level, but Democrats in down-ballot races begin the fall with advantages, according to a new poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.

In the Tar Heel State’s 1st District,…

7 Initial Thoughts After the Vice Presidential Debate

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 2, 2024 · 5:23 PM EDT

I used to be a debate skeptic. I was skeptical that debates changed the trajectory of elections. But after President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump squared off in one of the most consequential debates in history on June 27 and considering the race between Trump and Vice President…