Missouri Senate: Show Me the Nominee

by Jacob Rubashkin September 23, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

Republicans need to gain just a single seat to regain the Senate majority, but they have limited takeover opportunities and can’t afford to lose any of their own seats because of self-inflicted problems. Missouri has the potential to become a flashpoint for the GOP next year, with major…

Maine 2: Survivor Series

by Jacob Rubashkin September 23, 2021 · 2:29 PM EDT

Three years later, Republicans still aren’t convinced Rep. Bruce Poliquin lost re-election in 2018. But the former GOP congressman from Maine is running again and is a key piece of the GOP path to retake the House.

Republicans need a net gain of just five seats to win back the majority in the…

Candidate Conversation: Tiffany Smiley (R)

September 23, 2021 · 2:28 PM EDT

Washington Senate — Rating: Solid Democratic

Interview Date: Sept. 20, 2021

Date of Birth: April 18, 1981; Kennewick, Wash.

Education: Columbia Basin College; Whitworth Univ. BSN

Elected Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: Smiley is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination but…

The One Thing Biden Can’t Afford to Lose

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 17, 2021 · 11:48 AM EDT

The next presidential election is more than three years away, and even the midterms won’t happen for another 14 months. Yet President Joe Biden could be on the brink of losing something costly: the benefit of the doubt. 

While I’m on the record as skeptical that Afghanistan will be the defining…

Recalling the California Recall

by Jacob Rubashkin September 15, 2021 · 1:52 PM EDT

In the end, it wasn’t even close.

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California easily turned back the effort to remove him from office on Tuesday. With two-thirds of the vote counted already, 64 percent of voters opted to keep the first-term incumbent, compared to just 36 percent who wanted him out.…

California Governor Recall: Advantage Newsom in Final Stretch

by Ryan Matsumoto September 14, 2021 · 9:45 AM EDT

It’s Election Day, but more than eight million Californians have already voted in the recall election. Since our last update two weeks ago, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has strengthened his position and is increasingly likely to defeat the recall attempt.

The FiveThirtyEight polling…

California Governor Recall: Media Spending Reflects GOP Challenge

by Christopher Sebastian September 13, 2021 · 1:03 PM EDT

Christopher Sebastian is a Senior Analyst for Kantar/CMAG.

The complicated logistics of the California recall process created a noticeable divide in the messaging and broadcast strategies of Democrats and Republicans.

While those against the Sept. 14 recall only needed to convince Californians to…

Nevada Senate: It Matters

by Jacob Rubashkin September 10, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

With the Senate divided 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, every seat up is a potential majority-maker in 2022, including Nevada

Both parties have four major targets on the Senate battlefield. For Democrats, those are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida. For Republicans,…

Minnesota 2: Twin Billing

by Jacob Rubashkin September 10, 2021 · 2:29 PM EDT

With history, redistricting, and the current national political environment on their side, Republicans are on the march to the House majority. And if they make big gains in 2022, Minnesota’s 2nd District is likely to be in that batch of takeovers.

Democrats are facing the worst national…