Senate News & Analysis

Alabama Senate: Brooks Battles Back

by Jacob Rubashkin July 16, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

There are a couple of states where long-shot Democratic takeover opportunities could turn into full-blown Senate headaches for the GOP. But Alabama isn’t one of them.

Sen. Richard Shelby has represented Alabama in Washington, DC for 42 years, first in the House and since 1987 in the Senate, and as…

When We’ll Know How Much Trump’s Support is Worth

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 16, 2021 · 9:05 AM EDT

Early 2022 Senate primaries will be a good test of whether Donald Trump’s strength within the Republican Party endures into the midterm elections.

Up to this point, the former president’s grip on the GOP via his popularity with base voters shows little sign of waning. Eighty-four percent of Republicans had…

2022 Senate Overview (July 1, 2021): Defining the Battlefield

July 1, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

More than a year before the midterms, the narrow Senate battlefield continues to solidify as the candidate fields in key states become more clear. Yet there’s still one key ingredient missing in the fight for the majority: the national political environment.

There’s a…

2022 Senate Overview (July 1, 2021): Alabama - Georgia

July 1, 2021 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama. Open; Richard Shelby, R, not seeking re-election. Jan. 28 filing deadline. May 24 primary. Rep. Mo Brooks, the conservative firebrand and Jan. 6 Stop The Steal rally speaker, secured an early endorsement from former President Trump in the race to succeed the retiring Shelby. He also has endorsements from…

2022 Senate Overview (July 1, 2021): Hawaii - North Carolina

July 1, 2021 · 2:28 PM EDT

Hawaii. Brian Schatz (D) appointed 2012, elected 2014 (70%), 2016 (74%). June 7 filing deadline. Aug. 13 primary. Hawaii was one of just seven states where Trump actually improved on his 2016 performance in the 2020 election, but that doesn’t mean Republicans are going to be seriously competing in the…

2022 Senate Overview (July 1, 2021): North Dakota - Wisconsin

July 1, 2021 · 2:27 PM EDT

North Dakota. John Hoeven (R) elected 2010 (76%), 2016 (78%). April 11 filing deadline. June 14 primary. Hoeven had $2.1 million in the bank on March 31, Trump won the state by 34 points in November, and the senator appears to still be on the good side of the former…

These Four States Could Decide Control of Congress in 2022

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 28, 2021 · 4:46 PM EDT

Sixteen months before Election Day, new House district lines haven’t even been drawn, and yet the fight for Congress is likely to hinge on the outcomes in four critical states.

On a basic level, every state matters in the Senate, considering Republicans need to gain just a single seat to…

While You Were Underground: A Political Update for Cicadas

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 17, 2021 · 9:26 AM EDT

After living underground for 17 years, cicadas must find the political world a confusing place. So if you see any perplexed cicadas flying around the Washington area, wondering how things changed since the spring of 2004, just send them a link to this quick update. 

Considering Republicans were in control…

Decline in Ticket-splitting Reaches Beyond Congress

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 15, 2021 · 12:14 PM EDT

While many voters like to think of themselves as independent-minded folks who consider the person before the party, the 2020 election results paint a different picture. Ticket-splitting is on life support.

The scarcity of mismatched seats at the federal level is well documented. Less than 4 percent of House members…

Florida Senate: Not Swing, But Still Battleground

June 4, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

After cycles of GOP success, Florida has shed its swing state status. But the Sunshine State is still competitive and should still be considered a battleground, particularly when the majority in the Senate hinges on a single seat.  

Six years ago, Marco Rubio…