Senate News & Analysis

Ohio Primaries: Republicans Choose Brown Challenger

May 9, 2018 · 12:21 AM EDT

Senate. Sherrod Brown (D) elected 2006 (56%), 2012 (51%). Rep. Jim Renacci won the GOP nomination in the least suspenseful Senate primary of the night, defeating investment banker Mike Gibbons 47-32 percent. Renacci was also the only GOP congressman to be victorious in a Senate primary last night, as West…

West Virginia Primaries: Morrisey to take on Manchin for Senate

May 9, 2018 · 12:16 AM EDT

Senate. Joe Manchin (D) elected 2010 special (53%), 2012 (61%). Former coal company CEO Don Blankenship, who served a year in prison, enjoyed a few days in the national spotlight as a serious contender for the GOP nomination. But state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey prevailed with 35 percent over Rep.…

GOP Senate Targets Fade From View

by Stuart Rothenberg May 8, 2018 · 8:30 AM EDT

When this election cycle began, handicappers repeatedly pointed out that 10 Democratic Senate incumbents from states carried by Donald Trump would be on the ballot in 2018. That count was accurate, and the point behind it obvious — Republicans had a long list of opportunities.

But now even the most…

Tennessee Senate: Why I’m Cautious About Phil Bredesen’s Prospects

by Stuart Rothenberg April 30, 2018 · 9:10 AM EDT

Two early surveys show former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, holding a lead over Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn in hypothetical ballot tests of this year’s Senate race.

Those polls, along with kind words about Bredesen from retiring Tennessee GOP Sen. Bob Corker, have raised the contest’s profile and heightened…

(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Hair in Montana Ads, Let’s Remember Candidates from Kentucky

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 28, 2018 · 10:30 AM EDT

Arizona’s 8th District Special (a): The House majority was in play before the special election and it’s in play after the special election (and more thoughts in the aftermath of the race).

Arizona’s 8th District Special (b): Two months ago, we changed our rating from Solid Republican to…

Nebraska Senate: How Vulnerable is Deb Fischer?

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 27, 2018 · 2:45 PM EDT

Nebraska has been dubbed a “sleeper” Senate race and rated as competitive by some handicappers. House Democrats just came close to winning a special election in a congressional district President Donald Trump won by 21 points, so how vulnerable is GOP Sen. Deb Fischer?

At a minimum, the senator…

Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.

by Stuart Rothenberg April 23, 2018 · 12:44 PM EDT

New national polls show voters are more upbeat about President Donald Trump’s performance and more pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances of taking back the House. Or not.

An April 8-11 Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Trump’s job approval rating at 40 percent, while 56 percent disapproved of his performance.

An…

2018 Senate Overview: Two Americas

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 20, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

John Edwards’ “Two Americas” speech failed to get him to the White House, but it’s an apt description of the fight for Congress in 2018. While Democrats are primed to take back the majority in the House, Republicans are in better shape in the Senate, thanks to the class of…

Senate Overview (April 20, 2018): Maryland - Ohio

April 20, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

MARYLAND. Ben Cardin (D) elected 2006 (54%), 2012 (56%). June 26 primary. Cardin has never had a blowout race, but after 2016 when Clinton won Maryland by 26 points and Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen won the state’s other Senate seat by 25 points, the senator is in good shape…

Senate Overview (April 20, 2018): Pennsylvania - Wyoming

April 20, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

PENNSYLVANIA. Bob Casey Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%). May 15 primary. Rep. Lou Barletta ($1.6 million) is expected to defeat state Rep. Jim Christiana for the GOP nomination, but he faces a decidedly uphill race against Casey ($10 million) in the general election. Even though Trump squeaked out…