Senate News & Analysis

Report Shorts (Jan. 18, 2019)

January 18, 2019 · 2:28 PM EST

California’s 50th District. Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar came within 4 points of defeating GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter in 2016 and announced he will seek a rematch in 2020. But there’s a chance neither man makes it to the next general election. 

Hunter is under indictment and facing trial in September, and there’s…

Can Doug Jones win a full term in Alabama?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 17, 2019 · 11:23 AM EST

Alabama’s junior senator, Democrat Doug Jones, has been in office for only 13 months, but he’s already preparing to face voters again in 2020. With the Senate at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer can’t afford to lose any seats next year if he hopes to…

5 reasons why there’s still no end to the shutdown

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 14, 2019 · 12:06 PM EST

Three weeks into the government shutdown, I’m not sure how this standoff ends, but I do know there are multiple reasons for how we got here.

What’s the problem? Democrats and Republicans can’t find a solution because they’re trying to solve two different problems. If you listen carefully, Democrats are…

2020 Senate Overview (Jan. 4, 2019): We’ve Only Just Begun

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 4, 2019 · 2:30 PM EST

President Donald Trump declared victory on Election Night 2018 when Republicans picked up a couple Senate seats, keeping their majority. But Democrats held their losses to a minimum in the face of a challenging map, which keeps them within reach of the majority in 2020.

The number of seats Democrats…

2020 Senate Overview (Jan. 1, 2019) Alabama - Kansas

January 4, 2019 · 2:29 PM EST

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). Jones defeated former state supreme court justice Roy Moore in a high-profile special election. It was the first Senate win for Alabama Democrats since 1992, when now-GOP Sen. Richard Shelby was re-elected as a Democrat. (He switched parties in 1994.) Even with…

2020 Senate Overview (Jan. 4, 2019) Kentucky - New Mexico

January 4, 2019 · 2:28 PM EST

Kentucky. Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%) and 2014 (56%). As majority leader of the Senate and a critical piece of President Trump’s effort to reshape the courts through judicial confirmations, McConnell is and will be a Democratic target. But defeating him…

2020 Senate Overview (Jan. 4, 2019) North Carolina - Wyoming

January 4, 2019 · 2:27 PM EST

North Carolina. Thom Tillis (R), elected 2014 (49%). The Republican defeated Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in one of the closest races of the 2014 cycle. Tillis will be a target this cycle considering Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and Democrats won the governorship in 2016. But the party…

Why We’re Not Releasing 2020 Race Ratings Yet

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 21, 2018 · 8:30 AM EST

I love elections, particularly congressional races, but I’m just not in a hurry to jump to 2020. And I’m completely fine with holding off on releasing our race ratings until next year.

If I didn’t like elections, I would probably need to take a long look at doing something else…

North Carolina: Blue Wave Steered Clear of ‘Blue Moon’ Election

by Leah Askarinam December 14, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST

Democrats gained at least 40 House seats in races across the country, but the wave’s course veered from two key states: Ohio and North Carolina.

Looking at top-of-the-ballot results, it’s no surprise that Democrats failed to chip into Ohio’s House delegation. Democratic performance statewide indicated a fundamental problem for the…

Post-Midterms Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR) Update

by Ryan Matsumoto December 14, 2018 · 2:29 PM EST

Last month, Inside Elections revealed two of our new statistics: Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR).

Baseline captures a state or congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the last four election cycles into a single average. VAR measures the relative strength of political…