Senate News & Analysis

The Fight for the Senate in the Wake of Alabama

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Nathan L. Gonzales December 15, 2017 · 2:29 PM EST

Doug Jones’s historic victory in Alabama gives Democrats an important seat in the fight for the Senate, but most Democratic candidates next year will have to take a different path in order to help the party secure a majority. 

The most obvious difference is that other Democratic candidates don’t get…

10 Thoughts After the Alabama Senate Election

December 13, 2017 · 12:48 AM EST

One of the best parts about covering elections is that there is always a result. After all the prognosticating, projecting, discussing and arguing, there’s a winner. But determining the true meaning of victory and loss can be difficult.

There will be plenty of time to analyze the Alabama Senate special…

No One Is Afraid of a Government Shutdown

Nathan L. Gonzales December 8, 2017 · 12:47 PM EST

Call me crazy, but I'm not sure we won't see a government shutdodwn, even though Congress managed to pass a stopgap spending bill to fund the government through Dec. 22. Why? Because no one in Washington is particularly afraid of a government shutdown.

Democrats aren’t afraid of a government…

Ratings Update: Tennessee Senate Remains Solid R for Now

December 7, 2017 · 1:14 PM EST

Democrats made a big splash this week with the entry of former Gov. Phil Bredesen into the Tennessee Senate race, but the party still has an uphill battle in a state President Donald Trump won convincingly, and it’s not even clear Bredesen gives Democrats the best chance of winning.

Ratings Change: Franken’s Minnesota Seat Starts as Likely for Democrats

December 7, 2017 · 12:30 PM EST

Sen. Al Franken’s resignation puts another Democratic seat into the 2018 mix, but it’s still unclear whether his departure provides Republicans with a legitimate takeover opportunity.

In order to handicap a race, it’s helpful to know where the contest will take place and who is running. In this case, we…

Missouri Senate: Claire’s Courtship of Trump Voters

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Leah Askarinam December 1, 2017 · 2:30 PM EST

If Democrats want to have any shot at winning a Senate majority in 2018, Sen. Claire McCaskill likely needs to win re-election—a tall task, given that Missouri voted for President Donald Trump by nearly 20 points. 

McCaskill is one of 10 Democratic senators running for re-election in states that Trump…

Alabama Senate Special: Moore or Less a Toss-Up

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Nathan L. Gonzales December 1, 2017 · 2:29 PM EST

With 10 days to go before the Dec. 12 Alabama Senate special election, anyone who tells you they are certain who will win either is lying to you or just misinformed. 

Limited public polling shows Republican Roy Moore with a narrow advantage over Democrat Doug Jones in spite of multiple…

Good Candidate, Bad Candidate … Who Knows?

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Nathaniel Rakich November 27, 2017 · 11:35 AM EST

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is “probably the most confident, strongest Democrat to run for the U.S. Senate since I moved to Arizona in 1998,” trumpeted an Arizona State political science professor. Across the country, the party is “notably underwhelmed” by the three Democrats running against Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker. Republicans…

Ratings Change: Alabama Senate Moves to Toss-up

November 14, 2017 · 4:34 PM EST

Roy Moore is testing a once-hypothetical question: What would it take for a Democrat to win a statewide race in Alabama?

Under normal circumstances, Alabama would elect a Republican to Senate, even a candidate as polarizing as Moore. But the situation changed when The Washington Post reported allegations of…

Please Don’t Call It a Push Poll: Transgender Edition

Nathan L. Gonzales November 7, 2017 · 4:23 PM EST

Danica Roem and Bob Marshall are facing off in an unusually high-profile race for the Virginia House of Delegates — Roem, a transgender Democrat, is challenging Marshall, a conservative Republican. The race reached a new level in the final weeks when allegations of a so-called push poll came to light.