When Donald Trump was elected president of the United States there was a temptation to declare that none of the rules of politics mattered anymore. But the 2018 midterm elections proved that the fundamentals of running campaigns in this country are still intact.
In many ways, 2018 was a classic…
The races are still being finalized in the 2018 Senate elections, but we know the size of the incoming majority will be critical, because the 2020 Senate map offers limited initial takeover opportunities for both parties.
Of course, it’s too early to tell what the presidential race will look like,…
By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam
Two years is long enough to forget how crazy the last week of the elections is. From rumors of surprise races to breaking news events with unknown political consequences, each cycle often includes a fast and furious finish.
In the midst of uncertainty…
Arizona. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. There was a brief moment when it looked liked GOP Rep. Martha McSally had pulled even with or even slightly ahead of Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, but that appears to have dissipated. The vast majority of the latest data show Sinema with…
By Ryan Matsumoto
Inside Elections’ new statistic, which we’re calling Baseline, captures a clear picture of a congressional district or state’s political performance by accounting for all federal and state executive election results.
Baseline is defined as the trimmed mean of each party’s performance in partisan, contested statewide elections. It…
By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam
After two years of prognostication, election results are supposed to bring clarity. But the 2018 results are poised to be a mixed bag, making it difficult to land on a single narrative.
With President Donald Trump’s mediocre job approval rating nationally, the Senate…
Arizona. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election.
Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema held a narrow but distinct advantage over GOP Rep. Martha McSally before and after the August primaries. There is some conflicting data, but that lead appears to have dissolved. And some Republicans believe McSally has captured a…
Declaring 2018 anything but the Year of the Woman is heresy by now. It’s consistently, casually mentioned as a matter of fact. This year‘s regarded as a natural succession to 1992, which was the last time an election resulted in the number of women in the House…
Weather metaphors are often used (and overused) in election analysis, but there’s a better way to describe the Republicans’ challenge in 2018. The GOP is dealing with many headaches as it tries to preserve the Republican congressional majorities.
From tension to cluster to migraine, they can vary in frequency and…
By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam
With less than a month before Nov. 6, the fundamentals of these midterm elections are set and broadly good news for Democrats. But with dozens of close races around the country, a shift of just a couple points across the board is the…
