Senate News & Analysis

Maryland Senate & House: Chesapeake Churn

by Jacob Rubashkin February 13, 2023 · 2:04 PM EST

Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin has not yet announced whether he plans to run for a fourth term, but the Old Line State’s political world is already bracing for a historic primary to replace him, with the potential to reshape the state’s politics in substantial ways up and down the ballot.

Report Shorts (February 3, 2023)

by Erin Covey February 3, 2023 · 2:27 PM EST

Arizona Senate. After publicly flirting with challenging Sen. Kyrsten Sinema for months, Rep. Ruben Gallego has officially announced his campaign. Now that Sinema has become an independent, he has a clear path to the Democratic nomination. But if Sinema decides to run for re-election, he’ll have a more difficult task…

Kyrsten Sinema Is Still on ActBlue — For Now

by Jacob Rubashkin January 24, 2023 · 5:32 PM EST

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema may not be a Democrat anymore, but she still has access to one of Democrats’ premier campaign tools: ActBlue.

The online fundraising platform that has helped Democrats dominate the small-dollar money game for the past decade is still hosting the independent senator’s donation page.

However, that…

Breaking Down the Demographics of the 118th Congress

by Erin Covey January 11, 2023 · 11:59 AM EST

Slowly but surely, the U.S. Congress has begun to better reflect the nation.

But even as the House and the Senate have gradually become more diverse, the rate at which that happens has appeared to decline. The number of women and nonwhite members in the 118th Congress has only marginally…

2024 Senate Overview: Majority on the Line, Again

January 6, 2023 · 2:30 PM EST

By Nathan L. Gonzales, Erin Covey, and Jacob Rubashkin

Republicans failed to take control of the Senate in 2022, but they’ll have another good shot at it in 2024. 

The GOP fumbled a tremendous opportunity last cycle running in a midterm election with an unpopular Democratic president. Republicans needed a…

2024 Senate Overview (January 6, 2023) Arizona - Maine

January 6, 2023 · 2:29 PM EST

Arizona. Kyrsten Sinema (I) elected 2018 as a Democrat (50%). Filing deadline April 2024. Sinema’s decision to change parties throws a wrench into the battle for Arizona’s competitive Senate seat. The independent senator has not said if she will run for re-election. But if she does run, the Democratic Party’s…

2024 Senate Overview (January 6, 2023): Pennsylvania - Wyoming

January 6, 2023 · 2:27 PM EST

Pennsylvania. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%), 2018 (56%). Filing deadline TBD. After a disappointing midterm election for Pennsylvania Republicans, they’re hoping to unseat Keystone State’s senior senator in 2024. Casey is the longest serving Democratic senator in Pennsylvania’s history and has deep ties to the state…

Michigan Senate: The Race to Succeed Stabenow Is On

by Erin Covey January 5, 2023 · 11:25 AM EST

After serving in the Senate for the past 22 years, Debbie Stabenow announced this morning that she won’t seek re-election in 2024. The race to succeed the Democratic senator is guaranteed to draw serious attention and resources from both parties.

The Democratic Party has a deep bench in the Great…

Vote Above Replacement: 2022 Senate Elections

by Bradley Wascher December 16, 2022 · 2:28 PM EST

Democrats defied expectations by expanding their Senate majority in 2022 — but what exactly were those expectations? And Republicans nominated a number of underwhelming candidates, but how much did they actually underperform? Vote Above Replacement (VAR) can provide some empirical context to 2022 narratives.

VAR measures the strength…

Georgia Senate Runoff: How Warnock Won

by Ryan Matsumoto December 16, 2022 · 2:27 PM EST

After two decades of GOP dominance, Georgia has now voted for Democratic senators three times in the past two years, most recently in this month’s runoff election. How did it happen?

A handful of key trends propelled Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to victory in the Senate runoff. The Democratic senator…